A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF REPORTS CASES OF CRIME OF IN ENUGU STATE FROM 1995 – 2004
(A CASE STUDY OF ENUGU STATE POLICE HEADQUARTER)
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ABSTRACT
This research works is based on the Statistical Analysis of Reported cases of crime of violence in Enugu State, from 1995 – 2004. The chapters are grouped into five.
Chapter one discusses the introduction of the project chapter two looks at the literature review of crime in the State and the Country at large.
Chapter three centers on the research methodology and analysis of the data collected.
Chapter four discusses the summary of the results of the analysis and chapter five discusses the findings, conclusions and recommendations.
TABLE OF CONTENT
Title page
Certification
Dedication
Acknowledgement
Abstract
Table of Content
CHAPTER ONE
- Classification of Crimes
- Causes of Crimes
- Aims and Objectives of the Survey
- Scope and Limitation
CHAPTER TWO
- Literature Review
2.1 Political View on Crime
- Socio-Economic View on Crime
CHAPTER THREE
- Research Methodology
3.1 Required Data and their Source
- Method of Data Collection
- Procedure for Data Analysis
- Data Presentation
- Problems of Data Collection
CHAPTER FOUR
- Data Analysis
4.1 Illustrations
- The use of Least Square Method
- Estimation of Least Square Method
- Contingency Table
CHAPTER FIVE
- Findings
- Conclusion
- Recommendations
Bibliography
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
A man’s life is obviously his most cherished property and the most basic of all fundamental human rights. Nobody has the right to ham or even take away another person’s life except as a last resort another in self-defense.
A renowned English advocationist, Henry Thomas Buckee (1893) once said that the society prepares the crime while the criminal commits it.
Richard Under (1902) also said that all human beings are criminals but the difference is the degree. Whichever way we see that, it must be noted that crime is as old as the society itself, and no country, whether advanced or not can absolve itself of crime and also that we do not get involved in crimes of violence does not mean that we are not affected by them.
Since human being are dynamic in nature, it is worthy of note that punishment to a crime can also change since crimes do change from time to time. Under decree number 20 of 1984, at least eleven offences carried death penalty. These are arson, tampering with oil pipelines, import or export of mineral oil, one with intention of defrauding the Federal Military Government, dealing in cocaine, dealing in petroleum products, treason, Kidnapping, Lynching and possession of arms and ammunition. (News watch magazine Jan 20.1986). But today, events have overtaken these decree. It was consequently withdrawn and more suitable ones promulgated to suit the sophistication of commission of crimes, question and because of this varied nature of crimes, the relevant question bother on how to determine the punishment that commensurate with the crimes, since both our more conscience and social justice should also come into play here.
Hence, one wishes to define crime as an act committed in violation of a law prohibiting it or committed in violation of a law ordering it, which are variously punishable by death, impoundment, or imposition of fine or restrictions.
In Enugu State today, the rate at which cases of crimes are being reported needs to be given an urgent attention. We hear over the radio, in news papers and televisions, of various cases of house being burgled, cars being snatched at gun points, houses being burnt, properties being destroyed, people being massacred etc. Some of the things that come to mind are: what are the factors responsible for these atrocities, and how can we reduce the rate at which these crimes are being committed?
- CLASSIFICATION OF CRIMES
We can’t arrive at a conclusion without classifying crime into its various groups.
Crime is classified into three:
- Felonies
- Misdemeanor
- Simple offence
- Felony: This is an offence on conviction for which a person can, without proof of his having been previously convicted of an offence, be sentenced to death or to imprisonment for three years or more.
Some of the felonious crimes and the punishment for the offenders are:
Burglary: This is a crime of breaking into a house with intent to commit theft or other felony. The punishment for the offender is life imprisonment. Burglary is house breaking that is committed between 6.00 p.m and 6.00 a.m. On the other hand, if the offence is committed in the day time, the punishment for the offender is imprisonment for a period of fourteen (14) years.
Murder: The unlawful and malicious or premeditated killing of one human being by another is known as murder. A person who commits the offence of murder is liable to death.
Manslaughter: This is the unlawful killing of human being with malice, expressed or implied. The punishment for the offender is imprisonment for life, or fourteen (14) years.
Arson: This is the crime of purposely setting fire to another’s building or property, or to one’s own property so as to collect insurance. A person who commits this offence is liable to between seven years and life imprisonment depending on the property in question.
Slave Dealing: This is one who deals on trade in purchase, sales, transfer, or takes any person in order or so that such a person should be held or treated as a slave. The offender is liable to fourteen years imprisonment.
- Misdemeanor: This is an offence declared to be such or punishable by imprisonment for not less than six months but less than three years.
Example: Assault, Kidnapping.
Assault: Assault is an unlawful threat to harm a person physically or an unsuccessful attempt to do so. A person who commits the offence is liable to between six months to less than three years imprisonment depending on how great the assault is. This crime is a common one here is Enugu, because of the fact that it is an educational State. Any person who commits the offence of rape is liable to imprisonment with or without whipping.
Kidnapping: This is the act of forcibly abducting human being. The punishment to the offence is two years imprisonment.
Suicide: This is the act of self destruction by a person sound in mind and capable of measuring his moral responsibility. The punishment is one-year imprisonment for the offender.
Simple Offence: This is an offence which is neither a felony nor a misdemeanor. A simple offence is one which on conviction attracts an imprisonment term of less than six months. If an offence is a simple offence, the court must grant the offender bail as a matter of right as well as both misdemeanors.
- CAUSES OF CRIMES
There are about one thousand and one causes of crimes in Enugu State, but due to time factor and space, only few will be treated in this project. They are:
Unemployment: “An idle mind is the workshop of the devil.” A person without a job finds it very difficult to survive especially in Enugu where the standard of living is deteriorating daily. With the high rate of unemployment and inflation in the Country Enugu State as a case study is also faced with the same problem, therefore, many people find little or no alternative than to commit crimes like armed robbery, stealing, burglary etc, for their survival.
Ostentation: This factor contributes tremendously to increasing rate of crime in Enugu State today Despite the economic problem, you find all sort of wealth, latest brands of cars, mighty built dings, people wasting money on parties etc. Those things are done by a few group of people and the unfortunate ones therefore feel jealous and influenced and as such they resort to committing all sorts of crimes in order to be rich as well.
Hardship: Due to the present economic situation in Enugu State, most of the employed person cannot afford two square meal per day. As a result, some of them feel that the only way open to them is to commit crime, so that they too can live up to expectation.
Revenge: Some people feel that crimes such murder, arson, burglary etc can be committed as a form of punishment to an offender. For example, a party in a business, politics, can decide to murder, burn down properties or burgle the house of other parties if there is a misunderstanding among them in the course of business.
Embezzlement: Crime such as arson can also be committed as a result of embezzlement. Somebody who has embezzled some amount of money can decide to set the building where the documents are kept on fire so that there will be no evidence against him or her.
Drunkenness/Drug Abuse: Drunkenness and drug abuse also contribute to the alarming rate of crime in Enugu State today. Some body who is drank or who smoked Indian hemp or a drug addict can easily be influenced to commit crimes.
Jealousy/Hatred: Certain crimes such as murder, arson, assault etc are sometimes committed to jealousy or hatred.
Laziness: Some sets of graduate in Enugu Sate are very lazy to work and yet want to live sophisticated lives. They find that the only way open to them is to commit crimes in order to acquire this wealth.
Bad Friends: Human behaviours result from human interaction. A person who is moving in company of bad friends can easily be persuaded to commit one crime or the other.
Self Dissatisfaction: This also contributes to people committing crimes in the state some people with selfish habit may not be satisfied with what they have and will want to be very rich and famous when they cannot achieve this easily, they eventually turn to crime.
Mass Media: Mass media also have in one way or the other contributed to the high rates of crime in Nigeria as a country and Enugu State, which is a case study of this project work. There are some films such as robbery films, which they normally show on the television in the day time when children are seriously at alert. As a result, children will like to practicalize what they view on television and this leads to committing crimes.
Indeed, it would be no overstatement to declare that no civilized state can exist without law enforcement agencies, which for the purpose of this project is the police, which are the people responsible for arresting and prosecution of any person that goes against the laws.
- AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE SURVEY
The aims of the project are as follows:
- To know the rate at which various crimes are being committed and the possible fact responsible
- To know if any relationship exists between sex in various crimes committed
- To make recommendations.
The survey on the reported cases of crime in Enugu State should be of a particular interest to the governing body of this state and the citizens in general since this will help the government to know the possible factors that contribute to the increase in crime rate and as such find solution to them.
The survey will therefore, go a long way in harnessing the pressures that concerns political, social, economic, religious, educational and security life, as the present crime explosion is a cause for concern to the whole universe.
- SCOPE AND LIMITATION
The project is limited to only data obtained from Federal Office of Statistics and the Limit set by time factors and fund in completion of the project report. Therefore, we restricted this investigation to serious crime, 1995 to 2004 instead of all the types that is serious crimes, minor crimes and minor offences.
CHAPTER TWO
- LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 POLITICAL VIEW ON CRIME
Every idea employed for the successful completion of this research work is a reflection of what is read, studied, observed, examined and discussed on similar work carried out in the past. The various materials consulted, related how different writers, scholars and authorities had studied, expressed different views on the maladies that had afflicted the state.
In a lecture delivered by assistant commander of police in-charge of advanced training wing of inspectors; (A.C.P) Hillary N. Opara (2005); the socio-political dynamics of the society in which we live have made it imperative for every government agency, including the police to make necessary adjustment in their ways of operation, including their individual and collective attitudes and general approach to their duties in order to conform with the democratic ways of doing things.
He however, said that the long period of Military rule in Nigeria did impact in us, Unorthodox and undemocratic ways of handling issues, including crime which affects the civil society. He said that the police as a law enforcement agency in Nigeria was equally affected in no small measure by the devastating and crunching Military that stayed into governance for a long period of time.
As a result of this inappropriate socialization, one could notice people dishing out insulting and assaulting characters as an acceptable style of living, that is, people operating outside the confines of the law with impunity just because the military were in power.
Some people had said their opinion and contribution concerning this; Ugbo McNail (SS/H98/040) said that our leaders, law enforcement agencies and other bodies concerned with the enforcement of the law, should learn to take the Bull by the horn. He said that they should state the problem, find out the cause and it’s characteristics so as to minimize the cost of combating crime. He also said that they should consider showing good examples as leaders very important as they themselves should be free from criminal activities before enforcing it to the masses.
Salihu Ibrahim, a Lieutenant General and Chief of Army Staff (rtd) of the Nigerian Army said in his farewell address at a regimental Dinner in his honour at the Army Headquarters, Command 15, (1993). According to him, “Unless the politicians are allowed to make mistakes and learn from such mistakes, our political development would continue to be in its embryonic state for a long time to come and this we know affects the society.
He also said that, unless the Military learns to keep its hands off politics in this country our political development would continue to be at its ruddiest, for the consequences of this of allowed affects fundamental human rights as we found ourselves inheriting oppressive, suppressive, callous, crime society.
- SOCIO-ECONOMIC VIEW ON CRIME
Dokun, Bojouwade (1997) in his text; Journalism and Society, remarked that consequently, school children and students had lost the enthusiasm of the learner. Many abandoned school, most youths had thrown the usual youthful zeal at work over board and taken to cheating examination malpractice, armed robbery and cultism. The adults and elders who had suffered undue disadvantages on account of their social state or tribes of origin had been compelled to withhold their loyalties from the nation, at times holding the state hostage.
Most wives were no more faithful to their husbands, who had been incapacitated be economic crunch and retrenchment. Teachers, Academics and civil servants were no longer dedicated and conscientious, as their wages were low, conditions of service were always unrealized hope.
Also in Sunday Guardian, July 8 1990, advocates that the inhumanity and indignities suffered in our land had been caused by us. It said the at we did not believe other citizens deserve any right and rarely did we concede others’ right to them. It also said that, “all rights belong to me and to no other,” seemed to be our philosophy and then anchored its conclusion on facts revealing that;
- The commercial drivers had the right to pack passengers, entitled to stop at every millimeter distance to pick passengers
- The individual Nigerian believed that he was entitled to block public highway, excavate the road to connect water to his home without repairing the road afterwards.
- That Nigerians often exercise the right of not doing the work he was paid to do. As he had enjoyed the right of receiving payments for contract jobs and abandoning the contract without execution.
If he was a doctor, he felt entitled for appropriate government drugs for use in his private hospital where he charged patients exorbitantly.
Akubueze Charles Ugochukwu (SS. – H99 – 040) sited that the state’s law enforcement agents; the police force who are established for the purpose of protecting lives and properties and also with the power to arrest, detain and prosecute criminals, on the reverse encourage crime rather than deterring and combating crime.
Another aspect of the reverse order as he said was the relationship between public servants and members of the public state, as citizens always bribe in public offices when they needed anything from the public offices. He emphasized that when a citizen of the state was appointed to a position of responsibility, it was usually for the chance to steal the nation’s wealth and enrich himself.
In his recommendations, he encouraged citizens to participate in reducing crime by voting for candidate’s integrity, and at work is well. He encouraged the family to posses the greatest potential for shaping the behaviour and attitude of the individual which include.
- Awareness of child location
- Familiarity with child’s activities both at home and in school
- Acquaintance with child’s associates.
F.N. Mgbada (1990) in his law Degree the is on “the police and law enforcements in Nigeria,” observed that the few Nigerians who shunned crime, did so in spite of and not because of the Nigeria Police force, while some individuals wondered if same unscrupulous policemen employed the state instrument of force to perpetrate crimes on their own.
He cried that things are getting harder and harder, blaming the situation on bad administration and suggested that the state’s administration had been bad because it had been secured on sectional mandate, anchored on sectional interests, and sustained with sectional loyalty.
A study by Howard E. Freeman and Wyatt J. of Rotterdam University London (1993) reveals that person of all ages apparently commit all types of crime, but the adult age group is marked by unduly high rate of crime.
They remarked that the challenges of the youths have never been more than it is now. The political climate is poisoned; economic activities are at a low ebb while corruption, indiscipline and other social ills reign supreme.
They supported that the high rate of criminal behaviour among youths lies not only in the offenders personal development and temperament, but also in his lack of occupational and social opportunities and the community’s failure to integrate him into the social structure.
They buttressed the same view expressed in their research reports that crime is persistent, as persistent as the society. Nevertheless they opined that human fallibility has manifested itself in all minor and major echelons of human organization, saying that human beings have fallen outside the pattern of permitted conduct and are forced to make up from somebody, somewhere and somehow. They maintained their statuesque that crime cannot be abolished except in a non existence utopia.
In the text by Allank Coffey titled “the prevention of crime and delinquency. He stated that most people for instance conceive crime. He defined Deviance as the acts, which do not follow the norms and expectations of a particular state. He stated that criminal behaviour is often processed by defendant’s conducts which must have taken place in specified circumstances, such as the state of mind. In a nut shell that some crimes are committed due to state of mind of the person.
The above references do not in any way exhaust the literature review on crime, but are deemed to provide enough body of theory and techniques to this project work investigations.
CHAPTER THREE
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 REQUIRED DATA AND THEIR SOURCE
The available data used in this study is from secondary source. These were soured from the Management services Department (MSD) of Enugu Police Headquarter. Thus this research strategy covers the selection of suitable methods of data collection in our fast changing world where by people in all works of life can no longer do without it. This therefore, forms the basis for conceptual framework on which the whole research work is based.
- METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION
The data for this project were collected through abstraction as they were retrieved from the records made by the organization in the past. These data from internal source are classified as secondary. These form the basis of data collection and these information were found to be useful instruments to the study.
- PROCEDURE FOR DATA ANALYSIS
The time series additive model shall be used because of the nature, complexity and extent of the analysis required.
The Time Series Additive Model is given by:
y = t + s + r
Where
y is a given value of the time series variable
t is the trend component
s is the seasonal component
r is the residual component.
It is the evaluation and interpretation these components that is the aim of this overall analysis.
DESCRIPTION OF THE TIME SERIES COMPONENTS TREND: It is the underlying long-term tendency of the data being studied. The trend of a time series displays the general sweep of its movement, or better, it characterizes the gradual and consistent pattern of its changes. Some series of data recorded like crime over a given period of time may show an upward or a downward trend or remain more or less at a constant level.
The technique to be used in the extraction of trend from the given time series values is “the method of least square”.
THE METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES
In this method, the trend is estimated by fitting a trend line to the data available and from this equation we can compute the trend values (T).
The linear equation is given by:
y = a + bx
Where
y is the dependent value
x is the time to which measurement is referred
The values of a and b for a given data is calculated by using the normal equations which is given by:
a = åy – b åx
n n
b = nåxy – (åx) (åy)
nåx2 – (åx)2
Having obtained the trend equation, we must be very careful to indicate what the x and y represent, then the trend values are obtained by substituting the x1s corresponding to the different years into the trend equation.
SEASONAL VARIATION: This refers to short time cyclic fluctuations in the data about trend or the identical patterns which a time series appears to follow during corresponding months of successive years. Examples of such movements are those due to recurring events which take place annually. It is used to indicate any kind of variation, which is of a periodic nature and where the period is not longer than one year.
A typical illustration of seasonal variation is the effects of seasonal factors on the rate of crime, whereby in a year, the number of reported cases of crime changes frequently and substantially. The rate of crime varies for different months and for different seasons of the year. It increases before such holidays as the Easter period and Christmas period and there is a very large demand for cash before Christmas and other festive periods.
ESTIMATION OF SEASONAL VARIATION
Seasonal variation are estimated for the following reasons.
- To establish the pattern of the past changes
- To project past patterns into future.
- To eliminate the effects of the estimated seasonal pattern that exists from the time series.
To obtain a structural description of pattern of seasonal variation, we will first free our data from the effects of trend and residual variation. Once these components have been eliminated, we can calculate for each time point, the value of y – t the difference between the original time series and the trend values). Then for each season in turn, we find the average of all the y – t values.
Afterwards, if the total of the average differ from zero, adjust one or more of the average so that their sum is zero. The values so obtained are the appropriate seasonal variation values‘s’ in the model;
y = t + s + r
The technique to be used here is the “LEAST SQUARE METHOD”.
THE LEAST SQUARE METHOD
This is probably one of the most generally satisfactory way devised for measuring seasonal variation. It is relatively simple, although mathematically represented, yet it is a solid improvement over the method of semi average and ratio – to – trend method.
SEASONAL ADJUSTED TIME SERIES
One particular and important use of seasonal values is to seasonally adjust the original data. This is done by subtracting the appropriate seasonal indices from each of the original time series values and represented algebraically by (y – st).
The effect of seasonal adjustment is to smooth away seasonal fluctuations, having a clear view of what might be expected had seasons all represented unlike the moving average.
Another importance of seasonal adjustment is reflected in the fact that most of economic time series data is represented both in terms of “actual” and “seasonal adjusted” figures and are sometimes referred to as “DESEASONALIZED DATA”.
PROJECTING THE TREND
The method used in obtaining the trend values is by using the last trend value as the base value to which is added the appropriate number to trend equation.
Note that there is no provision for residual variation, since residual values are assumed to average out at zero.
CHI- SQUARE TEST
The chi – square test x2 is an important extension of the hypothesis testing and is used to compare an actual or observed distribution with a hypothesized or expected distribution.
It is often referred to as a “goodness of fit” test.
The chi – square test statistic is given as:
x2 = å (0 – E)2
E
Where
X2 = Chi – square
O = Observed frequency
E = Expected frequency.
Decision Rule: Accept Ho if x2 cal < x2 tab. Otherwise reject and accept Hi
CONDITIONS FOR THE USE OF X2 TEST
- The sum of theoretical frequencies and observed frequencies should be equal.
- Degree of freedom must be equal to k – I – m; where k is the classes of observed frequencies and m is the number of parameters to be estimated.
- No cell should be less than five, but when a cell’s frequency is less than five, it should be pooled with neighboring frequencies if possible, otherwise the x2 approximation fails.
- Each observation could be classified into exactly one category and categories should be multiplied exclusively. Thus observations should fall into one and only one cell.
- DATA PRESENTATION
YEAR 1995
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
4
– 2 3 3 5 5 2 4 8 12 17 |
1
– – 2 – 3 2 3 1 3 9 6 |
5
0 2 5 3 8 7 5 5 11 21 13 |
5
– – 3 4 6 8 13 11 19 11 2 |
1
1 2 2 3 – 9 3 7 8 5 5 |
6
1 2 5 7 6 17 16 18 27 16 7 |
3
– 1 5 4 1 8 6 2 8 27 8 |
1
1 3 5 3 6 3 3 2 11 19 2 |
4
1 4 10 7 7 11 9 4 19 46 10 |
15
2 8 20 17 21 35 30 27 57 83 30 |
| Total | 55 | 30 | 85 | 82 | 46 | 128 | 73 | 59 | 132 | 345 |
YEAR 1996
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
4
1 4 2 1 6 2 6 3 5 7 8 |
2
– 1 2 – 1 1 4 – 1 4 – |
6
1 5 4 1 7 3 10 3 6 11 8 |
1
4 11 10 4 6 1 4 7 8 16 8 |
2
13 6 10 12 7 6 8 10 6 5 4 |
3
17 17 20 16 13 7 12 17 14 21 12 |
2
1 4 3 1 17 3 2 6 12 18 23 |
6
2 5 8 5 8 4 14 1 12 13 28 |
8
3 9 11 6 25 7 16 7 24 31 51 |
17
21 31 35 23 45 17 38 27 44 63 71 |
| Total | 49 | 16 | 65 | 80 | 89 | 169 | 92 | 106 | 198 | 432 |
YEAR 1997
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
1
3 1 3 9 5 3 1 2 17 16 10 |
–
5 – 1 5 1 4 – 2 2 2 23 |
1
8 1 4 14 6 7 1 4 19 18 33 |
2
8 2 1 18 4 12 2 7 11 9 7 |
1
5 2 2 11 11 1 – 4 1 31 9 |
3
13 4 3 29 15 13 2 11 12 40 16 |
5
6 1 4 17 7 19 6 4 12 2 11 |
3
4 1 1 25 11 6 2 1 16 9 40 |
8
10 2 5 42 18 25 8 5 28 11 51 |
12
31 7 12 85 39 45 11 20 59 69 100 |
| Total | 71 | 45 | 116 | 83 | 78 | 161 | 94 | 199 | 213 | 490 |
YEAR 1998
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
8
3 3 1 3 30 6 8 11 7 14 12 |
4
1 2 4 – 8 – 6 7 5 5 22 |
12
4 5 5 3 38 6 14 18 12 19 34 |
17
3 6 3 1 18 4 18 12 16 9 13 |
10
16 6 2 – 33 3 6 3 10 20 15 |
27
19 12 5 1 51 7 24 15 26 29 28 |
7
– 1 1 1 – – 5 1 16 12 6 |
5
13 5 6 – 4 1 1 3 1 1 15 |
12
13 6 7 1 4 1 6 4 17 13 21 |
51
36 23 17 5 93 14 44 37 55 61 83 |
| Total | 106 | 64 | 170 | 120 | 124 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 105 | 519 |
YEAR 1999
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
6
6 4 7 5 13 6 4 9 19 17 29 |
1
– 3 6 2 4 2 1 7 9 29 2 |
7
6 7 13 7 17 8 5 16 28 46 31 |
2
4 7 4 1 12 4 4 4 9 14 3 |
2
1 9 6 – 10 3 2 1 4 4 14 |
4
5 16 10 1 22 7 6 5 13 18 17 |
1
1 1 3 3 6 1 2 3 6 12 11 |
2
– 1 5 – 6 5 – 2 4 3 2 |
3
1 2 8 3 12 6 2 5 10 15 13 |
14
12 25 31 11 51 21 13 26 51 79 61 |
| Total | 125 | 66 | 191 | 68 | 56 | 124 | 50 | 30 | 80 | 395 |
YEAR 2000
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
2
1 17 7 11 15 3 5 27 19 16 10 |
4
6 4 3 13 13 – 9 5 1 9 1 |
6
7 21 10 24 28 3 14 32 20 25 11 |
6
1 12 5 12 3 4 5 17 9 7 21 |
4
– – – 2 3 2 5 10 2 6 9 |
10
1 12 5 14 6 6 10 27 11 13 30 |
3
2 14 2 1 1 1 19 9 17 7 15 |
2
– 2 – 1 2 – 9 1 10 – 6 |
5
2 16 2 2 3 1 28 10 27 7 21 |
21
10 49 17 40 37 10 52 69 58 45 62 |
| Total | 133 | 68 | 201 | 102 | 43 | 145 | 91 | 33 | 124 | 470 |
YEAR 2001
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
5
7 9 15 2 13 3 5 6 14 14 31 |
6
1 9 22 6 4 9 2 7 3 20 13 |
11
8 18 37 8 17 12 7 13 17 34 44 |
15
9 10 7 4 17 23 9 12 15 16 19 |
10
3 1 5 8 2 22 4 15 16 14 20 |
25
12 11 12 12 19 45 13 27 31 30 39 |
8
37 14 17 28 2 8 16 10 7 13 10 |
8
13 13 10 21 – 6 8 6 6 8 1 |
16
50 27 27 49 2 14 24 16 13 21 11 |
52
70 56 76 69 38 71 44 56 61 85 94 |
| Total | 124 | 102 | 226 | 156 | 120 | 276 | 170 | 100 | 270 | 772 |
YEAR 2002
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
46
9 39 27 48 3 27 15 10 17 22 16 |
8
7 3 32 30 3 2 10 6 25 9 10 |
54
16 42 59 78 6 29 25 16 42 1 26 |
9
14 25 9 32 17 12 18 29 12 15 23 |
7
13 13 9 14 15 10 9 18 6 10 15 |
16
27 38 18 46 32 22 27 47 18 5 38 |
2
19 15 1 9 17 27 7 16 29 32 22 |
2
29 5 1 8 11 11 9 11 9 16 24 |
4
48 0 2 17 28 38 16 27 38 48 46 |
74
91 100 79 141 66 89 68 90 98 104 110 |
| Total | 279 | 145 | 424 | 215 | 139 | 354 | 196 | 136 | 332 | 1110 |
YEAR 2003
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
24
27 9 21 13 5 7 41 12 9 28 42 |
20
8 18 18 33 6 6 22 35 2 55 30 |
44
35 27 39 46 11 13 63 47 11 83 72 |
9
15 11 14 17 3 38 11 9 5 25 8 |
7
14 5 1 4 24 13 27 43 3 23 5 |
16
29 16 15 21 27 51 38 52 8 48 13 |
7
10 9 12 9 15 5 14 6 18 16 21 |
7
11 38 29 4 3 3 10 15 33 23 19 |
14
21 47 41 13 18 8 24 21 51 39 40 |
74
85 90 95 80 56 72 125 120 70 170 125 |
| Total | 238 | 253 | 491 | 165 | 169 | 334 | 142 | 195 | 337 | 1162 |
YEAR 2004
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
2`
15 21 9 4 12 11 19 14 1 21 8 |
16
26 31 30 2 19 3 26 40 7 40 39 |
18
41 52 37 6 31 14 45 54 8 61 47 |
15
4 18 22 12 71 9 38 19 12 28 1 |
41
17 8 38 15 12 28 14 6 5 33 12 |
56
21 26 60 27 83 37 52 25 17 61 13 |
6
17 15 1 17 18 19 8 27 14 19 41 |
–
13 5 – 17 19 6 15 4 37 25 20 |
6
30 20 1 34 37 25 23 31 51 44 61 |
80
92 98 100 67 151 76 120 110 76 166 121
|
| Total | 137 | 279 | 416 | 249 | 229 | 478 | 202 | 161 | 363 | 1257 |
- PROBLEMS OF DATA COLLECTION
- TIME FACTOR: Time inadequacy is one of the major constraints that pose difficulties on the data collection exercise. The limited time available had to be shared to accommodate other academic activities and other issues.
- INSUFFICIENT FUND: Owing to the fact the required information is not readily available; much money was spent in order to ensure that only reliable and complete data was used for this work. In addition, funds are required for transportation, journals and texts consulted and photocopies made.
- INSUFFICIENT DATA SUPPLIED: During the process of data collection, the needed information’s were not coordinated due to the decentralized nature of statistical production in the state. This leads to a situation where we have lots of agencies in the state and police departments as the works of all these agencies have to and are being coordinated with great difficulty and strain.
- POOR RECORD KEEPING: We had the problem of record keeping, leading respondents to give information from memory with all its attendant risks of memory lapses.
A close scouting of the available information reveals that records were not well kept on the shelves and more so, they find it difficult to release the data because of the fear that it may be put to uses which are inimical to them.
TABLE OF CONTENT
Title page
Certification
Dedication
Acknowledgement
Abstract
Table of Content
CHAPTER ONE
- Classification of Crimes
- Causes of Crimes
- Aims and Objectives of the Survey
- Scope and Limitation
CHAPTER TWO
- Literature Review
2.1 Political View on Crime
- Socio-Economic View on Crime
CHAPTER THREE
- Research Methodology
3.1 Required Data and their Source
- Method of Data Collection
- Procedure for Data Analysis
- Data Presentation
- Problems of Data Collection
CHAPTER FOUR
- Data Analysis
4.1 Illustrations
- The use of Least Square Method
- Estimation of Least Square Method
- Contingency Table
CHAPTER FIVE
- Findings
- Conclusion
- Recommendations
Bibliography
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
A man’s life is obviously his most cherished property and the most basic of all fundamental human rights. Nobody has the right to ham or even take away another person’s life except as a last resort another in self-defense.
A renowned English advocationist, Henry Thomas Buckee (1893) once said that the society prepares the crime while the criminal commits it.
Richard Under (1902) also said that all human beings are criminals but the difference is the degree. Whichever way we see that, it must be noted that crime is as old as the society itself, and no country, whether advanced or not can absolve itself of crime and also that we do not get involved in crimes of violence does not mean that we are not affected by them.
Since human being are dynamic in nature, it is worthy of note that punishment to a crime can also change since crimes do change from time to time. Under decree number 20 of 1984, at least eleven offences carried death penalty. These are arson, tampering with oil pipelines, import or export of mineral oil, one with intention of defrauding the Federal Military Government, dealing in cocaine, dealing in petroleum products, treason, Kidnapping, Lynching and possession of arms and ammunition. (News watch magazine Jan 20.1986). But today, events have overtaken these decree. It was consequently withdrawn and more suitable ones promulgated to suit the sophistication of commission of crimes, question and because of this varied nature of crimes, the relevant question bother on how to determine the punishment that commensurate with the crimes, since both our more conscience and social justice should also come into play here.
Hence, one wishes to define crime as an act committed in violation of a law prohibiting it or committed in violation of a law ordering it, which are variously punishable by death, impoundment, or imposition of fine or restrictions.
In Enugu State today, the rate at which cases of crimes are being reported needs to be given an urgent attention. We hear over the radio, in news papers and televisions, of various cases of house being burgled, cars being snatched at gun points, houses being burnt, properties being destroyed, people being massacred etc. Some of the things that come to mind are: what are the factors responsible for these atrocities, and how can we reduce the rate at which these crimes are being committed?
- CLASSIFICATION OF CRIMES
We can’t arrive at a conclusion without classifying crime into its various groups.
Crime is classified into three:
- Felonies
- Misdemeanor
- Simple offence
- Felony: This is an offence on conviction for which a person can, without proof of his having been previously convicted of an offence, be sentenced to death or to imprisonment for three years or more.
Some of the felonious crimes and the punishment for the offenders are:
Burglary: This is a crime of breaking into a house with intent to commit theft or other felony. The punishment for the offender is life imprisonment. Burglary is house breaking that is committed between 6.00 p.m and 6.00 a.m. On the other hand, if the offence is committed in the day time, the punishment for the offender is imprisonment for a period of fourteen (14) years.
Murder: The unlawful and malicious or premeditated killing of one human being by another is known as murder. A person who commits the offence of murder is liable to death.
Manslaughter: This is the unlawful killing of human being with malice, expressed or implied. The punishment for the offender is imprisonment for life, or fourteen (14) years.
Arson: This is the crime of purposely setting fire to another’s building or property, or to one’s own property so as to collect insurance. A person who commits this offence is liable to between seven years and life imprisonment depending on the property in question.
Slave Dealing: This is one who deals on trade in purchase, sales, transfer, or takes any person in order or so that such a person should be held or treated as a slave. The offender is liable to fourteen years imprisonment.
- Misdemeanor: This is an offence declared to be such or punishable by imprisonment for not less than six months but less than three years.
Example: Assault, Kidnapping.
Assault: Assault is an unlawful threat to harm a person physically or an unsuccessful attempt to do so. A person who commits the offence is liable to between six months to less than three years imprisonment depending on how great the assault is. This crime is a common one here is Enugu, because of the fact that it is an educational State. Any person who commits the offence of rape is liable to imprisonment with or without whipping.
Kidnapping: This is the act of forcibly abducting human being. The punishment to the offence is two years imprisonment.
Suicide: This is the act of self destruction by a person sound in mind and capable of measuring his moral responsibility. The punishment is one-year imprisonment for the offender.
Simple Offence: This is an offence which is neither a felony nor a misdemeanor. A simple offence is one which on conviction attracts an imprisonment term of less than six months. If an offence is a simple offence, the court must grant the offender bail as a matter of right as well as both misdemeanors.
- CAUSES OF CRIMES
There are about one thousand and one causes of crimes in Enugu State, but due to time factor and space, only few will be treated in this project. They are:
Unemployment: “An idle mind is the workshop of the devil.” A person without a job finds it very difficult to survive especially in Enugu where the standard of living is deteriorating daily. With the high rate of unemployment and inflation in the Country Enugu State as a case study is also faced with the same problem, therefore, many people find little or no alternative than to commit crimes like armed robbery, stealing, burglary etc, for their survival.
Ostentation: This factor contributes tremendously to increasing rate of crime in Enugu State today Despite the economic problem, you find all sort of wealth, latest brands of cars, mighty built dings, people wasting money on parties etc. Those things are done by a few group of people and the unfortunate ones therefore feel jealous and influenced and as such they resort to committing all sorts of crimes in order to be rich as well.
Hardship: Due to the present economic situation in Enugu State, most of the employed person cannot afford two square meal per day. As a result, some of them feel that the only way open to them is to commit crime, so that they too can live up to expectation.
Revenge: Some people feel that crimes such murder, arson, burglary etc can be committed as a form of punishment to an offender. For example, a party in a business, politics, can decide to murder, burn down properties or burgle the house of other parties if there is a misunderstanding among them in the course of business.
Embezzlement: Crime such as arson can also be committed as a result of embezzlement. Somebody who has embezzled some amount of money can decide to set the building where the documents are kept on fire so that there will be no evidence against him or her.
Drunkenness/Drug Abuse: Drunkenness and drug abuse also contribute to the alarming rate of crime in Enugu State today. Some body who is drank or who smoked Indian hemp or a drug addict can easily be influenced to commit crimes.
Jealousy/Hatred: Certain crimes such as murder, arson, assault etc are sometimes committed to jealousy or hatred.
Laziness: Some sets of graduate in Enugu Sate are very lazy to work and yet want to live sophisticated lives. They find that the only way open to them is to commit crimes in order to acquire this wealth.
Bad Friends: Human behaviours result from human interaction. A person who is moving in company of bad friends can easily be persuaded to commit one crime or the other.
Self Dissatisfaction: This also contributes to people committing crimes in the state some people with selfish habit may not be satisfied with what they have and will want to be very rich and famous when they cannot achieve this easily, they eventually turn to crime.
Mass Media: Mass media also have in one way or the other contributed to the high rates of crime in Nigeria as a country and Enugu State, which is a case study of this project work. There are some films such as robbery films, which they normally show on the television in the day time when children are seriously at alert. As a result, children will like to practicalize what they view on television and this leads to committing crimes.
Indeed, it would be no overstatement to declare that no civilized state can exist without law enforcement agencies, which for the purpose of this project is the police, which are the people responsible for arresting and prosecution of any person that goes against the laws.
- AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE SURVEY
The aims of the project are as follows:
- To know the rate at which various crimes are being committed and the possible fact responsible
- To know if any relationship exists between sex in various crimes committed
- To make recommendations.
The survey on the reported cases of crime in Enugu State should be of a particular interest to the governing body of this state and the citizens in general since this will help the government to know the possible factors that contribute to the increase in crime rate and as such find solution to them.
The survey will therefore, go a long way in harnessing the pressures that concerns political, social, economic, religious, educational and security life, as the present crime explosion is a cause for concern to the whole universe.
- SCOPE AND LIMITATION
The project is limited to only data obtained from Federal Office of Statistics and the Limit set by time factors and fund in completion of the project report. Therefore, we restricted this investigation to serious crime, 1995 to 2004 instead of all the types that is serious crimes, minor crimes and minor offences.
CHAPTER TWO
- LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 POLITICAL VIEW ON CRIME
Every idea employed for the successful completion of this research work is a reflection of what is read, studied, observed, examined and discussed on similar work carried out in the past. The various materials consulted, related how different writers, scholars and authorities had studied, expressed different views on the maladies that had afflicted the state.
In a lecture delivered by assistant commander of police in-charge of advanced training wing of inspectors; (A.C.P) Hillary N. Opara (2005); the socio-political dynamics of the society in which we live have made it imperative for every government agency, including the police to make necessary adjustment in their ways of operation, including their individual and collective attitudes and general approach to their duties in order to conform with the democratic ways of doing things.
He however, said that the long period of Military rule in Nigeria did impact in us, Unorthodox and undemocratic ways of handling issues, including crime which affects the civil society. He said that the police as a law enforcement agency in Nigeria was equally affected in no small measure by the devastating and crunching Military that stayed into governance for a long period of time.
As a result of this inappropriate socialization, one could notice people dishing out insulting and assaulting characters as an acceptable style of living, that is, people operating outside the confines of the law with impunity just because the military were in power.
Some people had said their opinion and contribution concerning this; Ugbo McNail (SS/H98/040) said that our leaders, law enforcement agencies and other bodies concerned with the enforcement of the law, should learn to take the Bull by the horn. He said that they should state the problem, find out the cause and it’s characteristics so as to minimize the cost of combating crime. He also said that they should consider showing good examples as leaders very important as they themselves should be free from criminal activities before enforcing it to the masses.
Salihu Ibrahim, a Lieutenant General and Chief of Army Staff (rtd) of the Nigerian Army said in his farewell address at a regimental Dinner in his honour at the Army Headquarters, Command 15, (1993). According to him, “Unless the politicians are allowed to make mistakes and learn from such mistakes, our political development would continue to be in its embryonic state for a long time to come and this we know affects the society.
He also said that, unless the Military learns to keep its hands off politics in this country our political development would continue to be at its ruddiest, for the consequences of this of allowed affects fundamental human rights as we found ourselves inheriting oppressive, suppressive, callous, crime society.
- SOCIO-ECONOMIC VIEW ON CRIME
Dokun, Bojouwade (1997) in his text; Journalism and Society, remarked that consequently, school children and students had lost the enthusiasm of the learner. Many abandoned school, most youths had thrown the usual youthful zeal at work over board and taken to cheating examination malpractice, armed robbery and cultism. The adults and elders who had suffered undue disadvantages on account of their social state or tribes of origin had been compelled to withhold their loyalties from the nation, at times holding the state hostage.
Most wives were no more faithful to their husbands, who had been incapacitated be economic crunch and retrenchment. Teachers, Academics and civil servants were no longer dedicated and conscientious, as their wages were low, conditions of service were always unrealized hope.
Also in Sunday Guardian, July 8 1990, advocates that the inhumanity and indignities suffered in our land had been caused by us. It said the at we did not believe other citizens deserve any right and rarely did we concede others’ right to them. It also said that, “all rights belong to me and to no other,” seemed to be our philosophy and then anchored its conclusion on facts revealing that;
- The commercial drivers had the right to pack passengers, entitled to stop at every millimeter distance to pick passengers
- The individual Nigerian believed that he was entitled to block public highway, excavate the road to connect water to his home without repairing the road afterwards.
- That Nigerians often exercise the right of not doing the work he was paid to do. As he had enjoyed the right of receiving payments for contract jobs and abandoning the contract without execution.
If he was a doctor, he felt entitled for appropriate government drugs for use in his private hospital where he charged patients exorbitantly.
Akubueze Charles Ugochukwu (SS. – H99 – 040) sited that the state’s law enforcement agents; the police force who are established for the purpose of protecting lives and properties and also with the power to arrest, detain and prosecute criminals, on the reverse encourage crime rather than deterring and combating crime.
Another aspect of the reverse order as he said was the relationship between public servants and members of the public state, as citizens always bribe in public offices when they needed anything from the public offices. He emphasized that when a citizen of the state was appointed to a position of responsibility, it was usually for the chance to steal the nation’s wealth and enrich himself.
In his recommendations, he encouraged citizens to participate in reducing crime by voting for candidate’s integrity, and at work is well. He encouraged the family to posses the greatest potential for shaping the behaviour and attitude of the individual which include.
- Awareness of child location
- Familiarity with child’s activities both at home and in school
- Acquaintance with child’s associates.
F.N. Mgbada (1990) in his law Degree the is on “the police and law enforcements in Nigeria,” observed that the few Nigerians who shunned crime, did so in spite of and not because of the Nigeria Police force, while some individuals wondered if same unscrupulous policemen employed the state instrument of force to perpetrate crimes on their own.
He cried that things are getting harder and harder, blaming the situation on bad administration and suggested that the state’s administration had been bad because it had been secured on sectional mandate, anchored on sectional interests, and sustained with sectional loyalty.
A study by Howard E. Freeman and Wyatt J. of Rotterdam University London (1993) reveals that person of all ages apparently commit all types of crime, but the adult age group is marked by unduly high rate of crime.
They remarked that the challenges of the youths have never been more than it is now. The political climate is poisoned; economic activities are at a low ebb while corruption, indiscipline and other social ills reign supreme.
They supported that the high rate of criminal behaviour among youths lies not only in the offenders personal development and temperament, but also in his lack of occupational and social opportunities and the community’s failure to integrate him into the social structure.
They buttressed the same view expressed in their research reports that crime is persistent, as persistent as the society. Nevertheless they opined that human fallibility has manifested itself in all minor and major echelons of human organization, saying that human beings have fallen outside the pattern of permitted conduct and are forced to make up from somebody, somewhere and somehow. They maintained their statuesque that crime cannot be abolished except in a non existence utopia.
In the text by Allank Coffey titled “the prevention of crime and delinquency. He stated that most people for instance conceive crime. He defined Deviance as the acts, which do not follow the norms and expectations of a particular state. He stated that criminal behaviour is often processed by defendant’s conducts which must have taken place in specified circumstances, such as the state of mind. In a nut shell that some crimes are committed due to state of mind of the person.
The above references do not in any way exhaust the literature review on crime, but are deemed to provide enough body of theory and techniques to this project work investigations.
CHAPTER THREE
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 REQUIRED DATA AND THEIR SOURCE
The available data used in this study is from secondary source. These were soured from the Management services Department (MSD) of Enugu Police Headquarter. Thus this research strategy covers the selection of suitable methods of data collection in our fast changing world where by people in all works of life can no longer do without it. This therefore, forms the basis for conceptual framework on which the whole research work is based.
- METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION
The data for this project were collected through abstraction as they were retrieved from the records made by the organization in the past. These data from internal source are classified as secondary. These form the basis of data collection and these information were found to be useful instruments to the study.
- PROCEDURE FOR DATA ANALYSIS
The time series additive model shall be used because of the nature, complexity and extent of the analysis required.
The Time Series Additive Model is given by:
y = t + s + r
Where
y is a given value of the time series variable
t is the trend component
s is the seasonal component
r is the residual component.
It is the evaluation and interpretation these components that is the aim of this overall analysis.
DESCRIPTION OF THE TIME SERIES COMPONENTS TREND: It is the underlying long-term tendency of the data being studied. The trend of a time series displays the general sweep of its movement, or better, it characterizes the gradual and consistent pattern of its changes. Some series of data recorded like crime over a given period of time may show an upward or a downward trend or remain more or less at a constant level.
The technique to be used in the extraction of trend from the given time series values is “the method of least square”.
THE METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES
In this method, the trend is estimated by fitting a trend line to the data available and from this equation we can compute the trend values (T).
The linear equation is given by:
y = a + bx
Where
y is the dependent value
x is the time to which measurement is referred
The values of a and b for a given data is calculated by using the normal equations which is given by:
a = åy – b åx
n n
b = nåxy – (åx) (åy)
nåx2 – (åx)2
Having obtained the trend equation, we must be very careful to indicate what the x and y represent, then the trend values are obtained by substituting the x1s corresponding to the different years into the trend equation.
SEASONAL VARIATION: This refers to short time cyclic fluctuations in the data about trend or the identical patterns which a time series appears to follow during corresponding months of successive years. Examples of such movements are those due to recurring events which take place annually. It is used to indicate any kind of variation, which is of a periodic nature and where the period is not longer than one year.
A typical illustration of seasonal variation is the effects of seasonal factors on the rate of crime, whereby in a year, the number of reported cases of crime changes frequently and substantially. The rate of crime varies for different months and for different seasons of the year. It increases before such holidays as the Easter period and Christmas period and there is a very large demand for cash before Christmas and other festive periods.
ESTIMATION OF SEASONAL VARIATION
Seasonal variation are estimated for the following reasons.
- To establish the pattern of the past changes
- To project past patterns into future.
- To eliminate the effects of the estimated seasonal pattern that exists from the time series.
To obtain a structural description of pattern of seasonal variation, we will first free our data from the effects of trend and residual variation. Once these components have been eliminated, we can calculate for each time point, the value of y – t the difference between the original time series and the trend values). Then for each season in turn, we find the average of all the y – t values.
Afterwards, if the total of the average differ from zero, adjust one or more of the average so that their sum is zero. The values so obtained are the appropriate seasonal variation values‘s’ in the model;
y = t + s + r
The technique to be used here is the “LEAST SQUARE METHOD”.
THE LEAST SQUARE METHOD
This is probably one of the most generally satisfactory way devised for measuring seasonal variation. It is relatively simple, although mathematically represented, yet it is a solid improvement over the method of semi average and ratio – to – trend method.
SEASONAL ADJUSTED TIME SERIES
One particular and important use of seasonal values is to seasonally adjust the original data. This is done by subtracting the appropriate seasonal indices from each of the original time series values and represented algebraically by (y – st).
The effect of seasonal adjustment is to smooth away seasonal fluctuations, having a clear view of what might be expected had seasons all represented unlike the moving average.
Another importance of seasonal adjustment is reflected in the fact that most of economic time series data is represented both in terms of “actual” and “seasonal adjusted” figures and are sometimes referred to as “DESEASONALIZED DATA”.
PROJECTING THE TREND
The method used in obtaining the trend values is by using the last trend value as the base value to which is added the appropriate number to trend equation.
Note that there is no provision for residual variation, since residual values are assumed to average out at zero.
CHI- SQUARE TEST
The chi – square test x2 is an important extension of the hypothesis testing and is used to compare an actual or observed distribution with a hypothesized or expected distribution.
It is often referred to as a “goodness of fit” test.
The chi – square test statistic is given as:
x2 = å (0 – E)2
E
Where
X2 = Chi – square
O = Observed frequency
E = Expected frequency.
Decision Rule: Accept Ho if x2 cal < x2 tab. Otherwise reject and accept Hi
CONDITIONS FOR THE USE OF X2 TEST
- The sum of theoretical frequencies and observed frequencies should be equal.
- Degree of freedom must be equal to k – I – m; where k is the classes of observed frequencies and m is the number of parameters to be estimated.
- No cell should be less than five, but when a cell’s frequency is less than five, it should be pooled with neighboring frequencies if possible, otherwise the x2 approximation fails.
- Each observation could be classified into exactly one category and categories should be multiplied exclusively. Thus observations should fall into one and only one cell.
- DATA PRESENTATION
YEAR 1995
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
4
– 2 3 3 5 5 2 4 8 12 17 |
1
– – 2 – 3 2 3 1 3 9 6 |
5
0 2 5 3 8 7 5 5 11 21 13 |
5
– – 3 4 6 8 13 11 19 11 2 |
1
1 2 2 3 – 9 3 7 8 5 5 |
6
1 2 5 7 6 17 16 18 27 16 7 |
3
– 1 5 4 1 8 6 2 8 27 8 |
1
1 3 5 3 6 3 3 2 11 19 2 |
4
1 4 10 7 7 11 9 4 19 46 10 |
15
2 8 20 17 21 35 30 27 57 83 30 |
| Total | 55 | 30 | 85 | 82 | 46 | 128 | 73 | 59 | 132 | 345 |
YEAR 1996
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
4
1 4 2 1 6 2 6 3 5 7 8 |
2
– 1 2 – 1 1 4 – 1 4 – |
6
1 5 4 1 7 3 10 3 6 11 8 |
1
4 11 10 4 6 1 4 7 8 16 8 |
2
13 6 10 12 7 6 8 10 6 5 4 |
3
17 17 20 16 13 7 12 17 14 21 12 |
2
1 4 3 1 17 3 2 6 12 18 23 |
6
2 5 8 5 8 4 14 1 12 13 28 |
8
3 9 11 6 25 7 16 7 24 31 51 |
17
21 31 35 23 45 17 38 27 44 63 71 |
| Total | 49 | 16 | 65 | 80 | 89 | 169 | 92 | 106 | 198 | 432 |
YEAR 1997
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
1
3 1 3 9 5 3 1 2 17 16 10 |
–
5 – 1 5 1 4 – 2 2 2 23 |
1
8 1 4 14 6 7 1 4 19 18 33 |
2
8 2 1 18 4 12 2 7 11 9 7 |
1
5 2 2 11 11 1 – 4 1 31 9 |
3
13 4 3 29 15 13 2 11 12 40 16 |
5
6 1 4 17 7 19 6 4 12 2 11 |
3
4 1 1 25 11 6 2 1 16 9 40 |
8
10 2 5 42 18 25 8 5 28 11 51 |
12
31 7 12 85 39 45 11 20 59 69 100 |
| Total | 71 | 45 | 116 | 83 | 78 | 161 | 94 | 199 | 213 | 490 |
YEAR 1998
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
8
3 3 1 3 30 6 8 11 7 14 12 |
4
1 2 4 – 8 – 6 7 5 5 22 |
12
4 5 5 3 38 6 14 18 12 19 34 |
17
3 6 3 1 18 4 18 12 16 9 13 |
10
16 6 2 – 33 3 6 3 10 20 15 |
27
19 12 5 1 51 7 24 15 26 29 28 |
7
– 1 1 1 – – 5 1 16 12 6 |
5
13 5 6 – 4 1 1 3 1 1 15 |
12
13 6 7 1 4 1 6 4 17 13 21 |
51
36 23 17 5 93 14 44 37 55 61 83 |
| Total | 106 | 64 | 170 | 120 | 124 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 105 | 519 |
YEAR 1999
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
6
6 4 7 5 13 6 4 9 19 17 29 |
1
– 3 6 2 4 2 1 7 9 29 2 |
7
6 7 13 7 17 8 5 16 28 46 31 |
2
4 7 4 1 12 4 4 4 9 14 3 |
2
1 9 6 – 10 3 2 1 4 4 14 |
4
5 16 10 1 22 7 6 5 13 18 17 |
1
1 1 3 3 6 1 2 3 6 12 11 |
2
– 1 5 – 6 5 – 2 4 3 2 |
3
1 2 8 3 12 6 2 5 10 15 13 |
14
12 25 31 11 51 21 13 26 51 79 61 |
| Total | 125 | 66 | 191 | 68 | 56 | 124 | 50 | 30 | 80 | 395 |
YEAR 2000
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
2
1 17 7 11 15 3 5 27 19 16 10 |
4
6 4 3 13 13 – 9 5 1 9 1 |
6
7 21 10 24 28 3 14 32 20 25 11 |
6
1 12 5 12 3 4 5 17 9 7 21 |
4
– – – 2 3 2 5 10 2 6 9 |
10
1 12 5 14 6 6 10 27 11 13 30 |
3
2 14 2 1 1 1 19 9 17 7 15 |
2
– 2 – 1 2 – 9 1 10 – 6 |
5
2 16 2 2 3 1 28 10 27 7 21 |
21
10 49 17 40 37 10 52 69 58 45 62 |
| Total | 133 | 68 | 201 | 102 | 43 | 145 | 91 | 33 | 124 | 470 |
YEAR 2001
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
5
7 9 15 2 13 3 5 6 14 14 31 |
6
1 9 22 6 4 9 2 7 3 20 13 |
11
8 18 37 8 17 12 7 13 17 34 44 |
15
9 10 7 4 17 23 9 12 15 16 19 |
10
3 1 5 8 2 22 4 15 16 14 20 |
25
12 11 12 12 19 45 13 27 31 30 39 |
8
37 14 17 28 2 8 16 10 7 13 10 |
8
13 13 10 21 – 6 8 6 6 8 1 |
16
50 27 27 49 2 14 24 16 13 21 11 |
52
70 56 76 69 38 71 44 56 61 85 94 |
| Total | 124 | 102 | 226 | 156 | 120 | 276 | 170 | 100 | 270 | 772 |
YEAR 2002
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
46
9 39 27 48 3 27 15 10 17 22 16 |
8
7 3 32 30 3 2 10 6 25 9 10 |
54
16 42 59 78 6 29 25 16 42 1 26 |
9
14 25 9 32 17 12 18 29 12 15 23 |
7
13 13 9 14 15 10 9 18 6 10 15 |
16
27 38 18 46 32 22 27 47 18 5 38 |
2
19 15 1 9 17 27 7 16 29 32 22 |
2
29 5 1 8 11 11 9 11 9 16 24 |
4
48 0 2 17 28 38 16 27 38 48 46 |
74
91 100 79 141 66 89 68 90 98 104 110 |
| Total | 279 | 145 | 424 | 215 | 139 | 354 | 196 | 136 | 332 | 1110 |
YEAR 2003
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
24
27 9 21 13 5 7 41 12 9 28 42 |
20
8 18 18 33 6 6 22 35 2 55 30 |
44
35 27 39 46 11 13 63 47 11 83 72 |
9
15 11 14 17 3 38 11 9 5 25 8 |
7
14 5 1 4 24 13 27 43 3 23 5 |
16
29 16 15 21 27 51 38 52 8 48 13 |
7
10 9 12 9 15 5 14 6 18 16 21 |
7
11 38 29 4 3 3 10 15 33 23 19 |
14
21 47 41 13 18 8 24 21 51 39 40 |
74
85 90 95 80 56 72 125 120 70 170 125 |
| Total | 238 | 253 | 491 | 165 | 169 | 334 | 142 | 195 | 337 | 1162 |
YEAR 2004
| CLASS | FELONY | TOTAL | MISDEMEANOR | TOTAL | SIMPLE OFFENCE | TOTAL | GRAND TOTAL | |||
| SEX | M | F | M | F | M | F | ||||
| Jan.
Feb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. |
2`
15 21 9 4 12 11 19 14 1 21 8 |
16
26 31 30 2 19 3 26 40 7 40 39 |
18
41 52 37 6 31 14 45 54 8 61 47 |
15
4 18 22 12 71 9 38 19 12 28 1 |
41
17 8 38 15 12 28 14 6 5 33 12 |
56
21 26 60 27 83 37 52 25 17 61 13 |
6
17 15 1 17 18 19 8 27 14 19 41 |
–
13 5 – 17 19 6 15 4 37 25 20 |
6
30 20 1 34 37 25 23 31 51 44 61 |
80
92 98 100 67 151 76 120 110 76 166 121
|
| Total | 137 | 279 | 416 | 249 | 229 | 478 | 202 | 161 | 363 | 1257 |
- PROBLEMS OF DATA COLLECTION
- TIME FACTOR: Time inadequacy is one of the major constraints that pose difficulties on the data collection exercise. The limited time available had to be shared to accommodate other academic activities and other issues.
- INSUFFICIENT FUND: Owing to the fact the required information is not readily available; much money was spent in order to ensure that only reliable and complete data was used for this work. In addition, funds are required for transportation, journals and texts consulted and photocopies made.
- INSUFFICIENT DATA SUPPLIED: During the process of data collection, the needed information’s were not coordinated due to the decentralized nature of statistical production in the state. This leads to a situation where we have lots of agencies in the state and police departments as the works of all these agencies have to and are being coordinated with great difficulty and strain.
- POOR RECORD KEEPING: We had the problem of record keeping, leading respondents to give information from memory with all its attendant risks of memory lapses.
A close scouting of the available information reveals that records were not well kept on the shelves and more so, they find it difficult to release the data because of the fear that it may be put to uses which are inimical to them.