STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PERFORMANCE OF NATIONAL POVERTY ERADICATION PROGRAMME IN NIGERIA

(A CASE STUDY OF ENUGU STATE 1995 – 2001)

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ABSTRACT

The main objectives of this work titled statistical analysis of performance of national poverty eradication programme in Nigeria, (a case study of Enugu State 1995 –2001) is to ascertain the nature and growth rate of poverty in the state, and to fit a trend to this rate in order to possibly find solution.

This study covers a period of 7 years (1995 –2001) and the data used was collected from federal office of statistics and office of national poverty eradication programme.

The tools employed in achieving the above objective is Friedman two way analysis of variance by ranks for comparing the number of beneficiaries, least square estimate to fit the trend and estimation of proportion to determine the proportion.

At the end of the analysis, we will discover the performances of this programme. The last chapter of this work covers the summary of findings and recommendations to the federal government and Enugu state.

TABLE OF CONTENT

Title page

Certification page

Dedication

Abstract

Acknowledgement

CHAPTER ONE

Introduction
Statement of the research problem
Purpose of the study
Research questions
Research hypothesis
Significance of the study

CHAPTER TWO

Literature review
Poverty profile in Nigeria
Eclectic approach
Living index approach

CHAPTER THREE

Research methodology
Friedman two-way analysis of variance by rank
Determination of trend
Estimation of proportion

CHAPTER FOUR

Data presentation and analysis
Application Friedman two-way analysis of variance by rank
Least square analysis
Estimation of the proportion

CHAPTER FIVE

Summary of findings
Recommendation
Towards enhancing an effective poverty alleviation programme

Bibliography

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

Poverty in developing countries is pervasive and multi dimensional sub-Sahara Africa is noted for the prevalence of absolute poverty in all of it characteristic features. Poverty in these countries is massive pervasive and chronic, engulfing a large proportion of the society.

The concern about poverty in most of these countries, including Nigeria and Enugu state, has been very tremendous. Resulting from large-scale poverty, human conditions in Nigeria and Enugu state have greatly deteriorated, particularly in the past years. Since the collapse the oil boom of 1970, there has been a dramatic increase in the incidence and depth of poverty in Nigeria, both urban and rural areas. While poverty is interpreted here in the narrow sense of household income poverty, it is important to bear in mind that poverty is a multifaceted condition.

It has many dimensions among them poor access to public services and infrastructure, unsanitary environmental surroundings, illiteracy and ignorance poor health, insecurity, voiceless and social exclusion, as well as low levels of household income and food msecurity. These feature, which are part of the social reality of the poor in Nigeria, trend to be mutually reinforcing, trapping the poor in a vicious circle many of these dimensions of Nigeria poverty are addressed.

The decay of basic social services, combined with rapid population growth, resulted in low and declining rates of school enrolment and access to primary health care during the 1990s. Illiteracy has risen significantly and now affects roughly half the adult population, much of the population, particularly in the rapid growing urban slums and informal peti-urban settlements is living in overcrowded, unhygienic conditions. Access to water and sanitation remains low and diseases are rite, resulting in high mortality rates as well as a low levels of economic productivity.

Moreover, the arbitrary and autocratic nature of military rule and the monopolization of politics by the rich and powerful have made it difficult for the poor to make their voices heard. This has been compounded by the lack of access of the poor to justice through the legal system and by the attitude of disdain for the “little man” among many of those in positions of authority, together, these manifestations of social and political exclusion have created a sense of helplessness of totals, punctuated by sporadic, localized explosions of pent-up frustration and anger.

While poverty as a social condition is multi-dimensional, this does not diminish the centrality of the services due to households, lack of access and low levels of income, especially in a country where these are only supplemented to a very limited extend by free or subsidized public services, for these reason, the large increase in the proportion of the Nigeria population living below the poverty line, in the household income terms, has been of great significance, with important consequences of families, coping capacity, including the ability to care adequately for the youth.

It is very obvious that poverty is endemic in Nigeria and Enugu State. The severity spread and depth of poverty in the country calls for deliberate, conscious and well focused efforts to poverty alleviation. It calls for more than mere formulation and execution of programmes and projects for growth and development.

Real disposable incomes have dwindled while malnutrition rates are on the increase. Resulting from the rate of population growth which has outstripped the rate of food production and rate of increase in the social service, the quality of nutrition as well as of educational and health services has deteriorated a great deal.

Afonja and Ogwumnke 1996, besides absolute poverty has been defined by the approximate maximum proportion of income that a family spend on certain subsistence goods (Walt 1997).

However, poverty is not just measured by income and consumption. It also includes non-material aspects relating o quality of life, such as nutritional and health status and educational attainment. Poverty alleviation had not been expocity entrenched in Nigeria’s development plans. Attention was usually focused on economic growth. But those, a critical examination of objective of Nigeria development plans, especially the first four, indicated that there was a pursuit of poverty alleviation.

Unfortunately the approach was not properly focused as efforts were not really effective in caring for the poor.

For instance, the first national development plan had its social objectives focussed on the well beings of Nigeria. The second, third and fourth plans emphasized equity and income distributions or a more even distribution of fruits of economic growth.

Both the private sector and government are aware of these ugly situation called poverty and have devised measures to alleviate them.

Consequently, following a review of government agencies involved in poverty alleviation efforts (by the Ahmed Joda panel) the Federal Government launched a National Poverty Eradication Programme (NAPEP) in January 2001. This has set the goal of eradicating absolute poverty over a ten-year period.

NAPEP is a coordinating body, liaison among 14 ministries and nine agencies with core poverty alleviation functions, and is responsible to the National Poverty Eradication Council (NPEC) chaired by the president.

It has so far developed four specific schemes focussing on youth empowerment, development of rural infrastructure, social welfare services and conservation, the strategy for combating poverty is to be further develop in inter in poverty reduction strategy paper.

STATEMENT OF THE RESEARCH PROBLEM

The search by people for employment has become the order of the day presently, our graduates both from colleges and higher institutions and able men face the problem of what to do to make life movable physically and spiritually.

The government has part by devising measures aimed at creating gainful employment opportunities to eradicate poverty for the people. The private sector has done little in this regard.

The question remains, has the government created a proper measures that will eradicate poverty in the state, especially the graduates?

Why the deficiency in employment in the state and what are the efforts of government and private sector towards these problem until when answers are provided for the above question, the state will remain in this worrisome economic scourge.

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

The aims and objectives of this work includes

To compare the number of beneficiary in each local government area.
To the trend of performance of poverty alleviation in Enugu.
To estimate the proportion of each local government area.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

Poverty is not only reflected in material well being of individuals but also in the quality of social and economic institutions.

The question that arise is how effective was the programme in the state?

Is there any improvement since the programme was initiated? and does poverty on increase since the government initiated measure of eradicating them?

RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

From the state of problem, the following null and alternative hypothesis were stated.

Ho, The mean number of beneficiaries in local government are the some

Hi, The mean number of beneficiaries in local government are not the some

The trend

Ho; B₁ > O

Hi; B₁ > O

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

The study of this kind will go along way in assisting the government in the formulation of economic policies that will help to eradicate or reduce poverty among the people.

The recommendation made in this research work will aid future research works closely related to it.

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

This social evil called poverty has over the years and the world over been a problem or state youth detest. The reason is the adverse effect it has on them and the society. As a social and economic problem different persons at one time or the other have tried to picture and define poverty in relation to the type of social economy operating in different countries.

Thus there are different views and opinions about poverty by different persons

Oxford Dictionary of current English edited by Della Thompson defines poverty as state being poor, want, scarcity or lack.

Afonja and Ogwumike 1996 in socio-economic profile of Nigeria by federal office of statistics on 1996 chapter 9 “poverty profile and poverty alleviation in Nigeria” defined poverty by the approximate maximum proportion of income that a family spends on a certain subsistence goods (Watts 1967) in line with Engle law and further reiterated by Ruggles (1990) any household that spends more than specified maximum share of their income on basic needs such as food, housing health, clothing etc is considered poor.

John Garraty Athur, refers poverty as the state of being with some socially and economic acceptable means of earning a living

(Marris, 1979; Ahmad and Hamming 1991 world bank 199:b Kakwani 1995) However, stated that poverty is not measured by income and consumption, it also includes non-material aspects relating to quality of life, such as nutritional and health status and educational attainment.

Baridhan and Ahluwalia (197 and 1976) stated that poverty is not only reflected in the quality of social and economic institutions. He further initiated an alternative approach to define relative poverty with respect to living standards that prevail in a particular society. Since the is not easy to measure, it is common practice to supplement income based measures of poverty with non-income such as child or infant motality, life expectancy, school enrollment educational status among others.

Lester C. Thurow 1967 defined poverty by absolute standards of living or by the desired shape of income distribution he said definition of poverty can be constructed on four varied bases.

A fraction of the income distribution
Explicit goals for the relative shape of income distribution

Estimates of the minimum income level necessary to guarantee healthy survival

Adequate standards of living as seen by the majority of the population

The first two definitions both have the advantage of emphasizing that there are income distribution goals beyond those of merely setting minimum standards of living.

Under the first determination the bottom is percent of the income distribution could be impoverished regardless of actual income in this sense poverty cannot be eliminated or reduced, but the income distribution can be narrowed by raising the bottom.

The second definition could classify as poor anyone below 50% of the median income. Elimination of poverty would come about through programs designed to bring the entire lower quartile up to the income of the second quartile the third possibility takes as key items the estimated costs of minimum amounts of shelter clothing and food. Such estimates place the poverty line at a very low level. The patterns of living at such an income level are radically different from the style of life led by the rest of the population (particularly the diets) and from that previously let by the poor themselves.

Under the fourth definition both absolute and relative individual preferences are important in locating the poverty line.

Index of social progress (ISP) as postulated by Estes (1984 and 1988) stated that poverty is a measure of human deprivation. The higher the level of poverty, the lower the level of human development.

POVERTY PROFILE IN NIGERIA

People in Nigeria, like others in other sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia remain the poorest in the world in 1992, between 45 and 50 percent of the approximately 525 million people in sub Saharan Africa were estimated to be living below poverty line. The picture is not different in Nigeria. But before the extent of poverty in Nigeria is examined it is paramount to gauge the basic causes are related to problems of access and endowments. They are:

Inadequate access to employment opportunities for the poor: This is often caused by the stunted growth of economic activities or growth with labour saving device.

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