TRADE OPENNESS AND OUTPUT GROWTH IN NIGERIA: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS (1970-2007)

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ABSTRACT

This research work studies the international competitiveness of the Nigerian economy in the global market by analyzing the relationship between trade openness and output growth in Nigeria. Using time-series data over the period 1970-2007, we show that output growth of the Nigeria economy is a function of two sets of shocks; (i) external shocks (openness and real exchange rate) and (ii) internal shocks (real interest rate and unemployment rate). A non-monotonic and an ANCOVA econometric models are postulated in  order to capture the structural pattern of the relationship between openness and output growth as well as the policy effect of structural Adjustment program (SAP). The result shows that there is an inverted U-shape (no-monotonic) relationship between openness and output growth in Nigeria and the optimum degree of openness for the economy is estimated to be about 67%. Also, the liberalization policy of the SAP has positive economic effect on the output growth. The ECM reveals that 79% of the equilibrium error is being corrected in the next period. We concluded that unbridled openness may have deleterious effect on the real growth of output of the Nigerian economy.

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1     Background of study                                                               1

1.1.2  Trade openness and output growth

Historical Experience of the Nigeria economy               3

• Statement of the research problem 14
• Objectives of the study 16
• Statement of the research hypothesis 17
• Justification of the study 17
• Significance of the study 18
• Scope and limitation of the study 19

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

• Theoretical literature 21

2.1.2 Theory of customs union and free trade areas                         37

2.1.3Models of export-led growth                                            40

• Empirical literature 45
• Limitation of previous studies 69

CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY 

• Analytical framework 70
• Model specification 71

3.2.1 Test of stationarity                                                          74

3.2.2 Test of co integration                                                                 75

3.2.3 Error correction model                                                     76

3.3     Justification of the model                                                                  78

3.4     Estimation techniques                                                             80

3.5     Evaluation Procedure                                                              81

3.5.1 Economic test (a priori expectation)                                81

3.5.2 Statistical (first order) test                                                         83

3.5.3 Econometric (second order) test                                                84

3.6     Sources of data and software for estimation                                     85

CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

• Introduction 87
• Presentations of regression results 87

4.2.1Test of stationarity                                                                   89

4.2.2 Test of co integration                                                                 91

4.2.3 The Error correction model (ECM)                                  92

• Interpretation and Evaluation of result 93

4.3.1Evaluation based on economic criteria                                      93

4.3.2Evaluation based on statistical criteria                                      103

4.3.3 Evaluation based on econometric criteria                       110

• Evaluation of the working Hypotheses 118

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, POLICY PRESCRIPTION

AND CONCLUSION 

• Summary 122
• Policy Recommendations 123

APENDIX                                                                     I

APENDIX                                                                     II

APENDIX                                                                     III (A)

APENDIX                                                                     III (B)

APENDIX                                                                     III(C)

APENDIX                                                                     III (D)

APENDIX                                                                     III (E)

APENDIX                                                                     III (F)

APENDIX                                                                       IV

APENDIX                                                                       V

APENDIX                                                                      VI

APENDIX                                                                      VII

APENDIX                                                                      VIII

APENDIX                                                                       IX

APENDIX                                                                       X

APENDIX                                                                       XI

APENDIX                                                                       XII

 

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

Figure 1:     Growth Rate of Real GDP

Figure 2: Trend of Real GDP

Figure 3: Growth of Export and Import

Figure 4: The Degree of Openness

Table 1: Openness Indicators

Table 2: A Priori Expectation

Table 3: Results of Model 1

Table 4: Results of Model 2

Table 5: Results of Stationarity test

Table 6: Results of Co integration test

Table 7: Results of the Error Correction Model

Figure 5: Non- Monotonic Relationship between TPN and  RGDP

Table 8: Summary of the T-Test

Table 9: Pair-Wise Correlation Matrix

 

 

 

CHAPTER ONE

 INTROUDCTION

1.1     BACKGROUND OF STUDY                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

The current period in the world economy is regarded as period of globalization and trade liberalization. In this period, one the crucial issues in development and international economics is to know whether trade openness indeed promotes growth. With globalization, two major trends are noticeable: first is the emergence of multinational firms with strong presence in different, strategically located markets; and secondly, convergence of consumer tastes for the most competitive products, irrespective of where they are made. In this context of the world as a “global village”, regional integration constitutes an effective means of not only improving the level of participation of countries in the sub-region in world trade, but also their integration into the borderless and interlinked global economy. (NEEDS, 2005).

Since 1950, the world economy has experienced a massive liberalization of world trade, initially under the auspices of the General Agreement on Tariffs and trade (GATT), established in 1947, and currently under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO) which replaced the GATT in 1993. Tariff levels in both developed and developing countries have reduced drastically, averaging approximately 4% and 20% respectively, even though the latter is relatively high. Also, non-tariff barriers to trade, such as quotas, licences and technical specifications, are also being gradually dismantled, but at a slower rate when compared with tariffs.

The liberalization of trade has led to a massive expansion in the growth of world trade relative to world output. While world output (or GDP) has expanded fivefold, the volume of world trade has grown 16 times at average compound rate of just over 7% per annum. In fact, it is difficult, if not impossible, to understand the growth and development process of countries without reference to their trading performance. (Thirlwall, 2000).

Likewise, Fontagné and Mimouni (2000) noted that since the end of the European recovery after World War II, tariff rates have been divided by 10 at the world level, international trade has been multiplied by 17, world income has quadrupled, and income per capita has doubled. Incidentally, it is well known that periods of openness have generally been associated with prosperity, whereas protectionism has been the companion of recessions. In addition, the trade performance of individual countries tends to be good indicator of economic performance since well performing countries tend to record higher rates of GDP growth. In total, there is a common perception that even if imperfect competition and second best situations offer the possibility of welfare improving trade policies, on average free trade is better than no trade.

From the ongoing discussion, it is evident that trade is very important in promoting and sustaining the growth and development of an economy. No economy can isolate itself from trading with the rest of the world because trade act as a catalyst of growth. Thus Nigeria, being part of the world, is no exemption. For this reason, there is a need to thoroughly examine the nature of relationship between trade openness and output growth in Nigeria.

1.1.2           TRADE OPENNESS AND OUTPUT GROWTH: HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE OF THE NIGERIA ECONOMY

Today, Nigeria is regarded to have the largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, excluding South Africa. In the last four decades there has been little or no progress realized in alleviating poverty despite the massive effort made and the many programmes established for that purpose. Indeed, as in many other sub-Saharan Africa countries, both the number of poor and the proportion of poor have been increasing in Nigeria. In particular, the 1998 United Nations human development report declares that 48% of Nigeria’s population lives below the poverty line. According to the report (UNDP, 1998). The bitter reality of the Nigerian situation is not just that the poverty level is getting worse by the day but more than four in ten Nigerians live in conditions of extreme poverty of less than N320 per capita per month, which barely provides for a quarter of the nutritional requirements of healthy living. This is approximately US 8.2 per month or US 27 cents per day.

Doug Addison (unpublished) further explained that the Nigeria economy is not merely volatile; it is one of the most volatile economies in the world (see figure 1 below). There is evidence that this volatility is adversely affecting the real growth rate of Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) by inhibiting investment and reducing the productivity of investment, both public and private. Economic theory and empirical evidence suggest that sustained high future growth and poverty reduction are unlikely without a significant reduction in volatility. Oil price fluctuations drive only part of Nigeria’s volatility policy choices have also contributed to the problem. Yet policy choices are available that can help accelerate growth and thus help reduce the percentage of people living in poverty, despite the severity of Nigeria’s problems.

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MONETARY POLICY AS A TOOLS FOR CONTROLLING INFLATION IN NIGERIA (1980-2004).

 

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ABSTRACT

This study is designed to empirically analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy as a tool for controlling inflation in Nigeria.

To investigate on this, hypothesis were formulated as follows:

Ho: Monetary policy measures adopted over the years have no significant impact in inflation control in Nigeria.

Hi: monetary policy measures adopted over the years have significant impact on inflation control in Nigeria.

The researcher adopted the method of linear regression, the ordinary least square (OLS) technique in analyzing the secondary data of inflation rate and money supply (1980-2004). The researcher were further subjected to t-ratio and f-tests, the result of which confirmed.

1. Monetary policy measures adopted by the monetary authorities between 1980 and 2004 were not effective and had no significant impact in controlling inflation.

2. Quick monetary remedies for inflation control do not

exist.

Based on the above findings, the following are the policy recommended:

The elimination of inflation requires the eradication of inflationary expectation.

Government should concentrate more on productive investment, which will reduce inflationary pressure in Nigeria.

The monetary authorities should maintain vigilance in its efforts to keep inflation in check by adhering to effective monetary and fiscal policies.

Government should monitor the implementation of monetary policies to ensure its success.

It is believed that if the monetary authorities  follows the above recommendation, effective will be achieved.

 

 

 

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER ONE

1.0      INTRODUCTION

1.1   BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

1.2   STATEMENT OF THE PROPLEM

1.3   OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1.4   HYPOTHESIS OF THE STUDY

1.5   SIGNIFICANT OF THE STUDY

1.6   SCOPE OF THE STUDY

1.7   DEFINITION OF TERMS

 

 

        CHAPTER TWO

2.0      LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1   THE MEANING OF MONETARY POLICY

EVOLUTION AND APPLICATION OF MONETARY POLICY

INSTRUMENTS IN NIGERIA

2.2    EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

2.2.1 OBJECTIVE OF MONETARY POLICY IN NIGERIA

2.2.2  RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF THE NIGERIA MONETARY

POLICY

2.2.3  PRE-STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMME (SAP)

MONETARY POLICIES IN NIGERIA

2.2.4  POST-SAP MONETARY POLICIES IN NIGERIA

2.2.5 THE IMPACTS OF NIGERIA’S MONETARY POLICIES IN

THE INFLATION CONTROL

2.3    ECONOMIC IMPLICATION / CONSEQUENCES OF

MONETARY POLICY.

 

   CHAPTER THREE

3.0  METHODOLOGY

3.1   THEORITCAL FRAMEWORK

3.2   MODEL SPECIFICATION

3.3      METHOD OF EVALUATION

3.4      DATA REQUIREMENT AND SOUCE

 

 

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0   DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

4.1   EMPERICAL RESULTS

4.2   STATISTICAL TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE

4.3   EVALUATION OF THE WORKING HYPOTHESIS

4.4   IMPLICATION OF THE RESULT

 

CHAPTER FIVE

5.O  SUMMARY OF FINDING, CONCLUSION AND

RECOMANDATION

5.1   SUMMARY OF FINDING

5.2   CONCLUSION

5.3   RECOMMENDATIONS

 

 

 

CHAPTER ONE

 

1.0                INTRODUCTION

 

1.1                BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Nigeria still presents a clear reflection of the third world economy in which the growing economy has some working machinery, monetary and fiscal policies that aimed towards maintaining a balance in the entire economy so that growth and development, which is the ultimate goal of every economy, is realized.

Generally, monetary policy refers to combination  of measures designed to regulate the values, supply and cost of money in an economy in consonance with the level of economic activity. Monetary policy is a deliberate effort by the monetary  authorities to control its monetary supply and credit conditions for the purpose of achieving certain broad economic goals. The aims of monetary policy are basically to control the inflation, maintain a healthy balance of payment positions for the country in order to safeguard the external value of the national currency and promote an adequate and sustainable level of economic growth and development. The formulation is done by the Federal government, mostly announced during budget speeches while the enforcement of the policy is solely the responsibility of the central bank of Nigeria (CBN)>

Inflation is the greatest challenge faling most developing countries like Nigeria today.

Inflation is defined as a persistent and appreciable increase in the general prices level of goods and services in the economy. Inflation has being the “clas in the wheel” that motivates economy. It has made export products to become expensive in the international market and this impeded the expansion of the export market.

Effective monetary policy produces economic growth and development. For a country such as Nigeria to achieve economic stability, she must place priority on efficient monetary policy. It is pertinent to note that the central bank has not been able to come up with credible monetary policy in the recent times (years) to cure the unemployment, low saving, debt burden, low investment, unfavorable balance of payment, mass poverty treating the nation interest rate and high exchange rate.

It has been observed that the Nigerian economy within the last 25 years has been engulfed in some economic problems. In Nigeria, inflation has been a serious economic problem for many years. Prices of goods and services has been on the increase and this has affected every aspect of the economy. Cost of living has been very high with the consequences of poor living standard and less savings.

With the present economic crisis playing the nation, Nigerians are yawning for credible monetary policy either expansionary or contractionary monetary policy depending on what economic goal the policy maker want to achieve. It becomes necessary for the monetary authorities to use various monetary policy. Instrument available to them. Such instruments are the general credit control and selective credit control instruments. Under the general credit control instruments are the open market operation (OMO), Rediscount rate, Reserve Requirement and Moral suasion, while the stock market margin requirements, control of terms of installment sales, mortgage credit restrictions and special directive belong to the selective credit control instrument.

Given the above policy tools, it is expected that the monetary authorities through its agents, the commercial banks and financial intermediaries e.t.c will be able to make monetary policy reform for the economic well being of the country and thus the monetary policy objective such as inflation control will be attained. The measure of a country’s monetary policy rests on the extent to which it has achieved the aims and objectives of its monetary policy. Hence the focus of this policy is on effectiveness of monetary policy as a tool for controlling inflation in Nigeria. This is to find out whether the monetary measures adopted so far has been able to achieve the desired objectives.

 

1.2        STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEMS

 

        The application of the monetary policy by the monetary authorities using the monetary instruments such as open market operation, Banks reserve e.t.c, in consonance with the prevailing economic situation is aimed at achieving the macro economic goals of the country such as low level of inflation, stable price rate and full employment, etc but in Nigeria, in spite of the numerous monetary policy measures adopted, the economy still suffers the problem of inflationary pressure, poverty, unemployment e.t.c.

The question that follows are: How effective are monetary policies in controlling some of these variables, inflation in particular, in Nigeria and how effective are these instruments employed? Why has inflation persisted in the Nigerian economy in the face of sustained government effort to curb it? Why have monetary policies failed in our country despite that they have worked in other countries? Do their functioning conform with a prior economic expectation? What may be the other reasons militating against the effectiveness of monetary policies?

It is against this that the researcher is undertaken in order to find out the effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling the rate of inflation and money supply in Nigeria.

 

 

1.3      OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

 

The objective of the study is to identity some of the highlights of the monetary measures designed and adopted in this country since the establishment of CBN to achieve the desirable economic goal. Despite the adoption of these seemly far- reaching and suitable measures, the achievement of these objectives seems to have eluded as so far.

It was based on this background that this projects sets out:

1. To find out if monetary policy measures adopted by the monetary authorities have succeeded in controlling inflation in Nigeria.
2. To examine the relationship between money supply and inflation.
3. To find out the effectiveness of monetary policy in achieving economic growth during the period under study (1980-2005)

THE IMPACT OF STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE ON   THE GROWTH OF NIGERIAN ECONOMY

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Foreign Transaction For Dollars Payment :
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Account Name: Chi E-Concept Int’l
 Account Number:  0117780667. 
Swift Code: GTBINGLA 
Dollar conversion rate for Naira is 175 per dollar. 

ATM CARD:  YOU CAN ALSO MAKE PAYMENT USING YOUR ATM CARD OR ONLINE TRANSFER. PLEASE CONTACT YOUR BANKER SECURITY GUIDE ON HOW TO TRANSFER MONEY TO OTHER BANKS USING YOUR ATM CARD. ATM CARD OR ONLINE BANK TRANSFER IS FASTER FOR QUICK DELIVERY TO YOUR EMAIL . OUR MARKETER WILL RESPOND TO YOU ANY TIME OF THE DAY. WE SUPPORT CBN CASHLESS SOCIETY. 

OR
PAY ONLINE USING YOUR ATM CARD. IT IS SECURED AND RELIABLE.

form>DELIVERY PERIOD FOR BANK PAYMENT IS  LESS THAN 2 HOURS

How to transfer from your bank account to All  Nigeriabanks

1. Access Bank:
—-*901#

2. EcoBank:
—-*326#

3. Fidelity Bank:
—-*770#

4. FCMB:
—-*389*214#

5. First Bank
—-*894#

6. GTB:
—-*737#

7. Heritage Bank:
—-*322*030#

8. Keystone Bank:
—-*322*082#

9. Sky Bank:
—-*389*076*1#

10. Stanbic IBTC:
—-*909#

11. Sterling Bank:
—-*822#

12. UBA:
—-*389*033*1#

13. Unity Bank:
—-*322*215#

14. Zenith Bank:
—-*966#

15. Diamond Bank
—-*710*555#

To know your BVN, dial
—-*565*0#.

E.g for First bank…   *894 *Amount *Acct. No. #

Please dail d code from d number u used to register d account from the bank

CALL OKEKE CHIDI C ON :  08074466939,08063386834.

AFTER PAYMENT SEND YOUR PAYMENT DETAILS TO

08074466939 or 08063386834, YOUR PROJECT TITLE  YOU WANT US TO SEND TO YOU, AMOUNT PAID, DEPOSITOR NAME, UR EMAIL ADDRESS,PAYMENT DATE. YOU WILL RECEIVE YOUR MATERIAL IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS ONCE WILL CONFIRM YOUR PAYMENT.

WE HAVE SECURITY IN OUR BUSINESS.   

MONEY BACK GUARANTEE

 

 

 

                                          ABSTRACT

This study is motivated primarily by the need to enhance capital accumulation from the stock market, being the long term end of the financial system. This study is an investigation of the impact of Nigeria stock exchange performance on the economic growth of Nigeria. To accomplish these objectives, an econometric methodology was adopted as a tool for testing the stated hypothesis. The ordinary least square was chosen as the estimation tool because of the advantages it has over other estimation technique considering the phenomenon under study.

The result of the student – t test revealed that the coefficient for market capitalization, investment rate and real exchange rate are all statistical significant at 5 percent level of significance. But the coefficient of real interest rate were not statistically significant at 5 percent level of significance The R² which is the coefficient of multiple determination also revealed that 99 percent of the variation in the dependent variable is caused by the variation in the explanatory variables. The F test result suggested that the model is statistically significant.

Expansion and efficiency of the Nigerian Stock Market would also be realizable if the recommendations in this project are considered This study recommends that the financial sector should be fully liberalized for efficient functioning of the financial system, the activities of the Nigerian Stock Exchange should be made more transparent as this will bring bout confidence in the mind of investors and people will be encouraged to invest, and the Government should encourage Nigerians to take advantage of the Stock Market and save for investment growth and capital formation in Nigeria.

 

 CHAPTER ONE

1.1 Background of the study ………………………………………1-10

1.2 Statement of the problem………………………………………10-11

1.3 Objectives of the study…………………………………………11

1.4 Hypothesis of the study…………………………………………11

1.5 Significance of the study……………………………………….12-13

1.6 Scope and limitation of the study………………………………13

CHAPTER TWO                                    

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Theoretical literature…………………………………………..14-48

2.2 Empirical literature…………………………………………….48-56

 

CHAPTER THREE

METHODOLOGY

3.1 Method of Evaluation…………………………………………..57-61

3.2 Model specification……………………………………………..61-63

3.3 Data required and source………………………………………..63

CHAPTER FOUR

PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULT

4.1 ADF Test for stationery………………………………………64-66

4.2 Co integration test……………………………………………..66-67

4.3 Presentation of regression result………………………………67-68

4.4 Interpretation of regression results……………………………68-70

4.5 Statistical criteria……………………………………………….71-74

4.6 Economic criteria……………………………………………….74-78

4.7 Evaluation of hypothesis……………………………………….78

CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATION

5.1 Summary…………………………………………………….79-80

5.2 Conclusion………………………………………………….80-82

5.3 Policy Recommendation………………………………..….82-83

Bibliography………………………………………………….84-90

Appendix……………………………………………………..91-97

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  CHAPTER ONE

1.1     BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY

Primarily, a stock market is the place where companies can raise money to make their businesses bigger and better. Companies raise money by selling shares or stocks to investors. At the same time, the stock market gives investors an opportunity to invest in these companies and benefit from any profit they can make.

A stock market can also be called a capital or securities market as it encompasses the stock exchange, the branches, and the stockbrokers. An organized securities market requires a securities exchange, a securities commission or other regulatory agency, and intermediaries such as dealers, brokers, securities analysts, etc. Virtually all costs are borne by those who benefit. The intermediaries receive their fees from the issuers or investors to whom they provide a service. The stock market is usually funded through fees paid by investors and issuers; even the expenses of the securities commission may be partially paid for by registration fees rather than being a major burden on the government budget. Companies which go public are subject to continuous cost of providing financial information, transferring shares, paying dividends, and other aspects of shareholder relations. The stock market is the aspect of the financial system which mobilizes and channels long term funds for economic growth. The stock market embraces trading in both new issues (primary) and old issues of stocks (secondary). Securities are primarily of 2 types: debt and equity. Debt securities include federal government development stock (GDS), industrial loans, preference stocks, bonds e.t.c, while equity securities mainly concern ordinary stocks which impose higher liabilities on the holders. Portfolio investment in the capital market is the acquisition of financial assets (which includes stock, bonds, deposits, and currencies) from one country in another country. It is a form of investment that attempts to achieve a mixture of income and capital growth, it deals with an institutional arrangement involving the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), the operators, and the investors. Stock market is viewed as a medium to encourage saving, help channel savings into productive investment, and improve the efficiency and productivity of investment. The emphasis on the growth of stock markets for domestic resource mobilization has also been strengthened by the need to attract foreign capital in non- debt creating forms. A viable equity market can serve to make the financial system more competitive and efficient. Without equity markets, companies have to rely on internal finance through retained earnings. Large and well established enterprises are in a privileged position because they can make investment from retained earnings and bank borrowings, while new companies do not have easy access to finance. Without being subjected to the scrutiny of the stock market, big firms get bigger, and for the emerging smaller companies, retained earnings and fresh cash injections from the controlling shareholders may not be able to keep pace with the needs for more equity financing which only an organized market place could provide. The corporate sector would also be strengthened by the requirements of equity markets for the development of widely acceptable accounting standards, disclosure of regular, adequate, and reliable information. While closely held companies can camouflage poor investment decisions and low profitability, at least for a while, publicly held companies cannot afford this luxury. The availability of reliable information would help investors make comparism of the performance and long term prospects of companies; corporations to make better investment and strategic decisions; and provide better statistics for economic policy makers.

The capital market in any country is one of the major pillars of long term economic growth and development. The market serves a broad range of clientele including different levels of government, corporate bodies, and individuals within and outside the country. For quite some time now, the capital market has become one of the means through which foreign funds are being injected into most economies, and so the tendency towards a global economy is more feasible/ visible there than anywhere else. It is, therefore, quite valid to state that the growth of the capital market has become one of the barometers for measuring overall economic growth of a nation.

Historically, the financial sector in the developing world has been primarily bank based. But, in recent years, there has been a gradual shift to a more holistic approach which, alongside the banks, seeks to develop the securities market. Some of the strength of the securities market which makes them the focal point of the shifting emphasis is their ability to:

1. mobilize long term savings for financing long tenure investments;
2. provide risk capital (equity) to entrepreneurs;
3. encourage broader ownership of firms; and
4. Improve the efficiency of resource allocation through competitive pricing mechanisms.
5. Provision of alternative sources of finance other than taxation and foreign loan to fund public projects.

Apart from these primary benefits, a developed securities market in the sense of efficient financial intermediation further brings additional gains to the economy. These gains arise through:

1. lower cost of equity capital for firms;
2. imposition of discipline on corporate managers as share prices react to right and wrong judgment in firm’s investment decisions;
3. existence of mechanisms for appropriate pricing and hedging against risk; and
4. Increased flow of funds to the domestic economy as international capital responds to the thriving stock market.

The development of securities market could help to strengthen corporate capital structure (i.e. the composition of the capital of the firms) and efficient and competitive financial system. The stock market encourages savings by providing households with an additional instrument which may better meet their risk preferences and liquidity needs.

In well-developed capital markets, share holding provides individuals with a relatively liquid means of sharing risks in investment projects. To the extent that securities and bonds are a viable and relatively secure form of investment with an attractive long term return, they serve two functions:

1. stocks provide an incentive to save and invest; and
2. Financial savings are promoted and domestic savings rate increase as a whole.

Stock market development has an important role to play in economic development. Shahbaz and his friends (2008) argue that stock market development is an important wheel for economic growth as there is a long-run relationship between stock market development and economic growth. Stock market development has the direct impact in corporate finance and economic development. Gerald (2006) states that stock market development is important because financial intermediation supports the investment process by mobilizing household and foreign savings for investment by firms. It ensures that these funds are allocated to the most productive use and spreading risk and providing liquidity so that firms can operate the new capacity efficiently. A growing body of literature has affirmed the importance of financial system to economic growth. Financial markets, especially stock markets, have grown considerably in developed and developing countries over the last two decades. Claessens, et al (2004) states that several factors have aided in their growth, importantly improved macroeconomic fundamentals, such as more monetary stability and higher economic growth. General economic and specific capital markets reforms, including privatization of state-owned enterprises, financial liberalization, and an improved institutional framework for investors, have further encouraged capital markets development. Similarly Mishkin (2001) states that a well-developed financial system promotes investment by identifying and financing lucrative business opportunities, mobilizing savings, allocating resources efficiently, helping diversify risks and facilitating the exchange of goods and services. From the view point of Sharpe, et al (1999), stock market is a mechanism through which the transaction of financial assets with life span of greater than one year takes place. Financial assets may take different forms ranging from the long-term government bonds to ordinary shares of various companies. Stock market is a very important constituent of capital market where the shares of various firms are traded Trading of the shares may take place in two different forms of stock market. When the issuing firm sells its shares to the investors, the transaction is said to have taken place in the primary market but when already issued shares of firms are traded among investors the transaction is said to have taken place in the secondary market. Stock markets are very important because they play a significant role in the economy by channeling investment where it is needed and can be put to best (Liberman and Fergusson, 1998). The stock market is working as the channel through which the public savings are channelized to industrial and business enterprises. Mobilization of such resources for investment is certainly a necessary condition for economic take off, but quality of their allocation to various investment projects is an important factor for growth. This is precisely what an efficient stock market does to the economy (Berthelemy and Vardoulakis, 1996). Earlier research emphasized on the role of the banking sector in the economic growth of nation. In the past decade, the world stock markets surged, and emerging markets accounted for a large amount of this boom (Demirguc-Kunt and Levine (1996a).  Recent research has begun to focus on the linkages between the stock markets and economic development. New theoretical work shows how stock market development might boost long-run economic growth and new empirical evidence supports this view. Demirguc-Kunt and Levine (1996a), Singh (1997), and Levine and Zervos (1998) find that stock market development is playing an important role in predicting future economic growth. In underdeveloped countries like Nigeria, the development and growth of stock markets have been widespread in recent times. Despite the size and illiquid nature of stock market, its continued existence and development could have important implications for economic activity. For instance, Pardy (1992) has noted that even in less developed countries capital markets are able to mobilize domestic savings and able to allocate funds more efficiently. Thus stock markets

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY ON NIGERIAN ECONOMY

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2. EcoBank:
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3. Fidelity Bank:
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4. FCMB:
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5. First Bank
—-*894#

6. GTB:
—-*737#

7. Heritage Bank:
—-*322*030#

8. Keystone Bank:
—-*322*082#

9. Sky Bank:
—-*389*076*1#

10. Stanbic IBTC:
—-*909#

11. Sterling Bank:
—-*822#

12. UBA:
—-*389*033*1#

13. Unity Bank:
—-*322*215#

14. Zenith Bank:
—-*966#

15. Diamond Bank
—-*710*555#

To know your BVN, dial
—-*565*0#.

E.g for First bank…   *894 *Amount *Acct. No. #

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                                                  ABSTRACT

 

 

This study aimed at analyzing through econometric methodology the effects of monetary policy in Nigeria economy. To meet the above objective, output growth was chosen as the dependent variable while real exchange rate, real interest rate and inflation was chosen as the independent variable. The ordinary least square was used in the regression estimation. From the empirical result, we realized that the entire explanatory variables are insignificant in the t-test, but in f-test we rejected the null hypothesis and conclude that the slope coefficient are not simultaneously equal to zero. We realizes from the battery test that there is a co integration between the explanatory band the dependent variables since its level of stationarity are the same.

The policy implication of the result is that if monetary and banking policies are effectively applied, it will be consistent with determining the level of output growth in the economy

 

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER ONE

 

1.0       INTRODUCTION

One of the ways taken by all economy to make the banking sector effective is the use of the monetary policy introduced by the federal government and carried out by the apex bank of the country. Apparently, the existence of  an effective banking industry is vital to every economy and it encourages economic growth and development via its role in financial interdiction of funds supplies to deficit economic units .This stimulates international trade, investment economic growth as well employment growth as well as employment.

Monetary policy is one of the steps taken by every economy to make the banking sector effective. Monetary and banking policies are the sole responsibilities of monetary authority, which comprises of The CBN for the initiation, implementation and articulation of monetary system. The CBN carried out these duties on behalf of the federal government according to CBN decree 21 of 1991 and the banks and other financial institution BOFIA A4, of 1991 as amended. The banks proposal on monetary policy is subjective to the federal government.

The policies to be pursued is usually out in form of ‘’Audience’’ to all banks and other financial institutions. The guideline are general in operation within a fiscal year but could be amended on the course of the year. The CBN is equally empowered to direct the activities of the financial institutions in other to carry out certain duties in pursuit of approved monetary policy of which penalties are prescribed for non-compliance with specific provision of the guidelines.

1.1       BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Monetary policy affects financial and economic activities over the year. In other to appreciate the effects of monetary policy on the banking industry, it would be wise to move a review of changing views of monetary influence. Usually when the quantity of money changes in relation to financial activities as viewed by FISHER (1932). Fisher, take other neoclassical writer who held the view that in short run, money influences real cash balances. According to him, when the money stock increases, example;

An increase commodity prices since output and velocity were fixes initially. He assumed that a rise in commodity prices would exceed the increase in interest rate which was regarded as a component of a firms operating cost. In the whole analysis, rise in commodity prices will lead to an increase in a firms profit, demand, money stock and deposit which will eventually lead to a further rise in investment and commodity price. The excess reserved for lending will decline with interest rate, which was stocky earlier.

In the analysis of long-term transmission of monetary influence, Fisher replaced ‘’Interest-Investment’’ channel with ‘’Real Cash Balance’’. He noted that when wealth rises due to rise in money stock, people tend to reduce their cash balances by purchasing goods and service. Since the velocity (v) and output (y) in Fishers equation of exchange (MVPT) is fixed, the risen money stock (M) cannot lead to increased holding of goods and services but will lead to decline in prices level (P). Keynes (1936) accepted the change in money supply relative has both substitution and effect and considered investment to be quite responsive to interest rates.

Keynes recommended price induce wealth effects, (i.e. change in wealth due to change in yields). There are ranging accounts by his interpreters about the extent he integrate them in his general theory. Hence subsequent write to Keynes (i.e. Keynesian or post Keynesian regards the cost of capital (interest rate) as the main process by which changes in money stock influence the economy. Thus the change in volume of money alters the rate of interest. Usually approximated by the long-term government bound rate, which affects investment and consumption. Thus the link between wealth of private sector and real sectors and consumption was analyzed by Piguo (1974) and Patikin (1951) in form of ‘’real cash balance effect’’ According to them changes in quantities of money would affect aggregate demand even if they did not alter interest rate. On the other hand, credit rationing channel of monetary influence explained  how financial interdiction, would be controlled by the market forces so as to ration the supply of credit by non-price mechanism.

Thus an expansionary monetary policy would raise the force of equity (i.e. reduce the yield on equities). The margin between the market evaluation and cost of reproducing the existing capital goods will stimulate new investment over those goods.  The non-monetarist argued that monetary policy is as effective as fiscal policy as to determine total spending in the economy in spite of their differences. It holds the following views:

1. Movement in quantity of money is the most reliable measure of monetary value.
2. Monetary authority can detect the movement in the stock of money over time and business cycle.
3. Changes in stock of money are the primary determination of total spending as emphasized on owen’s economic stabilization program.
4. Monetary impulse are transmitted to real economy through an active price process or profit adjustment process which affect many financial and real antes.

 

1.2       STATEMENT OF PROBLEM 

             Despite the establishment of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in 1958, banking industry remained both poor, inadequate in terms of number, quality and variety of service rendered. The establishment of CBN paved way for adoption of monetary management by the banking industry. Just incase any analyst is waiting in the wings to strike CBN for its poor monetary policy performance. Ogwuma (1994:362) offers a defense which says “A less than objective appraisal of the CBN

THE RELATIVE IMPACT OF OIL AND NON-OIL EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: 1983-2007

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Foreign Transaction For Dollars Payment :
Bank Name: GTBank
Branch Location: Enugu State,Nigeria.
Account Name: Chi E-Concept Int’l
 Account Number:  0117780667. 
Swift Code: GTBINGLA 
Dollar conversion rate for Naira is 175 per dollar. 

ATM CARD:  YOU CAN ALSO MAKE PAYMENT USING YOUR ATM CARD OR ONLINE TRANSFER. PLEASE CONTACT YOUR BANKER SECURITY GUIDE ON HOW TO TRANSFER MONEY TO OTHER BANKS USING YOUR ATM CARD. ATM CARD OR ONLINE BANK TRANSFER IS FASTER FOR QUICK DELIVERY TO YOUR EMAIL . OUR MARKETER WILL RESPOND TO YOU ANY TIME OF THE DAY. WE SUPPORT CBN CASHLESS SOCIETY. 

OR
PAY ONLINE USING YOUR ATM CARD. IT IS SECURED AND RELIABLE.

form>DELIVERY PERIOD FOR BANK PAYMENT IS  LESS THAN 2 HOURS

How to transfer from your bank account to All  Nigeriabanks

1. Access Bank:
—-*901#

2. EcoBank:
—-*326#

3. Fidelity Bank:
—-*770#

4. FCMB:
—-*389*214#

5. First Bank
—-*894#

6. GTB:
—-*737#

7. Heritage Bank:
—-*322*030#

8. Keystone Bank:
—-*322*082#

9. Sky Bank:
—-*389*076*1#

10. Stanbic IBTC:
—-*909#

11. Sterling Bank:
—-*822#

12. UBA:
—-*389*033*1#

13. Unity Bank:
—-*322*215#

14. Zenith Bank:
—-*966#

15. Diamond Bank
—-*710*555#

To know your BVN, dial
—-*565*0#.

E.g for First bank…   *894 *Amount *Acct. No. #

Please dail d code from d number u used to register d account from the bank

CALL OKEKE CHIDI C ON :  08074466939,08063386834.

AFTER PAYMENT SEND YOUR PAYMENT DETAILS TO

08074466939 or 08063386834, YOUR PROJECT TITLE  YOU WANT US TO SEND TO YOU, AMOUNT PAID, DEPOSITOR NAME, UR EMAIL ADDRESS,PAYMENT DATE. YOU WILL RECEIVE YOUR MATERIAL IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS ONCE WILL CONFIRM YOUR PAYMENT.

WE HAVE SECURITY IN OUR BUSINESS.   

MONEY BACK GUARANTEE

 

 

 

ABSTRACT

The study is made up of two independent models, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Investment respectively. The independent variables Oil export, Non-oil export, Real exchange rate and Inflation rate were modeled to capture their effect on GDP and Investment respectively.

The study employed Log Linear Model. Following the empirical findings in this study, we observed that, Non-oil export have not contributed a lot to economic growth in Nigeria but other indicators exert enough pressure on the strength of the economy, evidence from the result of the first model. Judging from the result of the second model, Oil export proves a negative non significant variable with investment growth in Nigeria.

The study recommends appropriate economic policies, institutional reforms and massive political will for the country to address the issues of dwindling exportation of Non-oil sector and the trap of Dutch Disease associated with oil-dependency.

 

CHAPTER ONE

• Introduction ——————————————————- 1

1.1 Background of study ———————————————                    1

1.2 Statement of problem ——————————————–           3

1.3 Objective of the study ——————————————-           5

1.4 Statement of hypothesis —————————————–           5

1.5 Significance of the study —————————————-           6

1.6 Scope and limitations of the study —————————–            6

CHAPTER TWO

2.1 Meaning of oil and non-oil exports —————————-           7

2.2 A brief historical perspective on oil in Nigeria ————–             7

2.3 Oil and economic policies in Nigeria ————————-             10

2.4 The Dutch-Disease ———————————————-            15

2.5 The boom and burst periods in oil sector and policy response —–17

2.6 Macroeconomic policies and structure of Non-oil export in Nigeria-22

2.7 Oil export, Non-oil export and Economic growth in Nigeria ——- 26

Empirical Literature—————————————————-29

CHAPTER THREE

Research methodology——————————————————–35

3.1 Model Specification——————————————————35

3.2 Method of Evaluation—————————————————-37

CHAPTER FOUR

4.1 Data presentation———————————————————41

4.2 Data Analysis ————————————————————44

CHAPTER FIVE

Summary, Conclusion and Recommendation—————————58

5.1 Summary——————————————————————58

5.2 Conclusion—————————————————————-61

5.3 Recommendation———————————————————62

BIBLIOGRAPHY———————————————————66

Appendix

 

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER ONE

                                  INTRODUCTION

1.1THE BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Oil, a very versatile and flexible, non-reproductive, depleting, natural (hydrocarbon) is a fundamental input into modern economic activity, providing about 50% of the total energy demand in the world. (Anyanwu J.C. et al, 1997)

Petroleum or crude oil is an oily, bituminous liquid consisting of a mixture of many substances, mainly the element of carbon and hydrogen known as hydrocarbons. It also contains very small amounts of non-hydrocarbon elements, chief amongst which are sulphur (about 0.2 to 0.6% in weight), then nitrogen and oxygen. (Anyanwu J.C. et al, 1997)

Non-oil exports comprises of agricultural products, solid mineral, textile, tyre, manpower, etc. it is made up of every other thing we export, except petroleum products. In the decades of the 1960s and 1970s, the Nigeria economy was dominated by agricultural commodity exports. Such commodities include cocoa, groundnut, cotton and palm produce. From the mid 1970s, crude oil became the main export produce of the Nigerian economy. (Anyanwu J.C. et al 1997)

The development of the petroleum (oil) industry in the country began in 1909. It started with exploration activities by the German Bitumen Corporation, but their search for oil seized after the First World War because the Germans started the war and lost in the war. With Nigeria being under British sectorial control, it was only natural that the Germans had to stop their exploration activities.

In 1937, an oil prospecting license was granted to shell D’Arcy Exploration parties. The first commercial discovery of crude oil in Nigeria was made in 1956 by shell at Oloibiri. The company started production and in 1961 the Federal government of Nigeria issued ten oil prospecting licenses on the continental shelf to five companies. Each license covered was subject to the payment of N1 million. With this generous concession full-scale on-shore and off –shore oil exploration began.

Oil was found in commercial quantities at Oloibiri in the Niger delta, further discoveries at Afam and Boma established the country as an oil-producing nation. The Nigerian crude oil is described as a sweet type because of its lightness and its low sulphur content. It was largely sought-after in the international oil market.

The global perception of Nigeria is that of a really blessed oil producing nation, but with a growing poverty index. (Maaji Umar YAKUB, 2008). The problems of low economic performance of Nigeria cannot be attributed solely to instability of earnings from the oil sector, but as a result of failure by government to utilize productively the earnings from the export of crude oil from the mid 1970s to develop other sectors of the economy. Nigeria is among the poorest countries in the world, with the poverty incidence estimated at 54% in 2006. The economy has been substantially unstable, a consequence of the heavy dependence on oil revenue and the volatility in its prices. The oil boom of the 1970s led to the neglect of non-oil tax revenue, expansion of the public sector, and deterioration in financial discipline and accountability. In turn, oil-dependency exposed Nigeria to oil price volatility which threw the country’s public finance into disarray.

This study will examine the relative impact of oil and non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria.

 

• STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Oil is a major source of energy in Nigeria and the world (in general). Oil being the mainstay of the Nigerian economy plays a role, vital role in shaping the economy and political destiny of the country. It was towards the end of the Nigerian civil war (1967-1970) that the oil industry began to play a prominent role on the economic life of the country.

Non-oil product on the other hand plays an important role in the economic growth and development of the country. Non-oil exports, especially agricultural product like groundnut, palm oil, cotton, natural rubber, coffee, gum Arabic, sesame seed, etc. was our main stay before the period of the oil boom. It was during that period (that is, period of oil boom) that Nigerians neglected non-oil exports to an extent.

Nigeria can be categorized as a country that is primarily rural, that is, it depends on primary product export (especially, oil product). Since the attainment of independence in 1960 it has experienced ethnic, regional and religious tensions, magnified by significant disparities in economic, educational and environmental development in the south and in the north. This could be partly attributed to the major discovery of oil in the country which affects and is affected by economic and social components.

Crude oil discovery has had certain impact on the Nigerian economy both positively and adversely. On the negative side, this can be considered with respect to the surrounding communities within which the oil wells are exploited. Some of these communities still suffer environmental degradation, which leads to deprivation of means of livelihood and other economic and social factors. Although, large proceeds are obtained from the domestic sales and exports of petroleum products, its effects on the growth of the Nigerian economy with regard to returns and productivity is still questionable.

Hence, there is need to evaluate the relative impact of oil and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria. In the light of the study, the main objective is to assess the relative impact of oil and non-oil export on the Nigerian economy.

 

Below are the research questions of the study.

1. What is the relative impact of oil and non-oil exports on investment in   Nigeria?
2. What is the relative impact of oil and non-oil exports on economic

growth in Nigeria?

• OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY.

The broad objective of this study is to investigate the impact of oil and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria. However, the specific objectives are;

1. To determine the relative impact of oil and non-oil exports on