IMPACT OF NON-OIL EXPORT ON NIGERIAN ECONOMY (1986-2010)

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ABSTRACT
The study investigated the impact of non-oil exports on Nigerian economy during the period of 1986-2010. This study was carried out against the background of the crucial role non-oil export can play as an alternative source of revenue apart from crude oil exports. To achieve this objective, multiple regressions were used in analyzing the data. The empirical result shows that non-oil export is statistically significant to Nigeria economic growth. On the other hand, Government Expenditure (GEX) was not significant to Nigerian economy. Due to this, some recommendations were made which include encouraging financial institutions, improving in data collection and banking, efficient allocation and use of resources, and creating economic environment that will help boost the activity of non-oil export sector.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title Page…………………………………………………………….…. i
Approval Page ………………………………………………………… ii
Dedication…………………..………………………………………….. iii
Acknowledgement…………………………………………………….. iv
Abstract…………………………………………………………………. v
Table of Contents……………………………………………………… vi
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study………………………………………… 1
1.2 Statement of the Problem………………………………………… 8
1.3 Objective of the Question………………………………………… 11
1.4 Statement of Hypothesis…………………………………………. 11
1.5 Significance of the Study………………………………………… 12
1.6 Scope and Limitations of the Study…………………………… 12
CHAPTER TWO
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Theoretical Literature……………………………………………. 14
2.1.1 The Agricultural Commodities and Products Exports…. 15
2.1.2 The Manufacturing and Craft Export Product…………… 16
2.1.3 The Solid Mineral Export Product………….……………….. 17
2.2 Empirical Literature……………………………………………… 18
2.3 Limitations of the Previous Studies…………….……………. 26
8
CHAPTER THREE
3. O RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Model Specification……………………………………………….. 27
3.2 Methods of Evaluation…………………………………………… 29
3.3 Model Justification……………………………………………….. 30
3.4 Sources of Data and Software Packages……………………. 31
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0 PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
4.1 Presentation of Result…………………………………………… 32
4.2 Result Interpretation……………………………………………. 32
4.2.1 Analysis of the Regression Coefficients…………………. 32
4.2.2 Evaluation Based on Economic Criteria……….……….. 33
4.2.3 Evaluation Based on Statistical Criteria……..………… 33
4.2.4 Evaluation Based on Econometric Criteria……………… 34
4.3 Evaluation of the Research Hypothesis……………………. 38
4.4 Policy Implication………………………………………………. 39
CHAPTER FIVE
5.0 SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION
5.1 Summary of Findings…………………………………………… 40
5.2 Policy Recommendations….…………………………………… 40
5.3 Conclusion….…………………………………………………….. 43
Bibliography……………………………………………………………. 44
9
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
There are a number of reasons for a country to be concerned about its rate of economic growth. Economic growth is designed by both affluent and non-affluent economies. Economic growth is the desire for higher levels or real per capital income, real output which must grow faster than the production of the economy in question. Economists, policymakers, public and private sectors work ceaselessly forwards attaining economic growth by the use of development and growth models and policies. Among the policies used are trade policy (import and export policies, monetary policy, exchange rate policy, fiscal policy, market, etc). In this study, the non-oil exports and economic development in Nigeria will be examined.
Non-oil exports are the products which are produced within the country in the agricultural, mining, and querying and industrial sectors that are sent outside the country in order to generate revenue for the growth of the economy excluding oil product. These non-oil export products are coal, cotton, timber, groundnut, coca, beans, etc.
10
Today, as in the past, the growth of Nigeria economy remains partly dependent upon increasing productivity of the agricultural sector.
Helleiner, 2002 state that no matter how much development and structural transformation achieved, it will remain its relative dominance in the economy to many decades to come. Precisely, it is from agricultural exploits that the economy has received its principal stimulus to economic growth.
Agricultural sector can assist through the exportation of principal primary commodities which will increase the nation’s foreign earnings and which can be used to finance a variety of development projects. The growth of the agricultural sector can make a substantial contribution to the total revenue, as well as having some implications for intersectional terms of trade. Also in the area of capital formation, the savings generated in this sector can be mobilized in development purposes, while increase in rural income as a result of increasing agricultural activities can further stimulates the product of the modern sector.
11
The needs of the agricultural sector could indirectly influence the creating of additional infrastructures which are in dispensable to rapid economic development (Olaloku, 2001).
Another non-oil export to be developed on is industrial sector. It is the fastest growing sector in Nigerian economy. It comprises of many manufacturing and mining. Nigeria has manufacturing base prior to 1960 and shortly after.
The problem was due to lack of modern technological skills, managerial experience of complex organizations and financial back-up. The problem was further aggravated by the colonialists merchants convincing arguments on the goodness of comparative cost- advantage.
Nigerians were coaxed into concentrating their efforts in the production of primary agricultural products and exporting them to the metrological industries in Europe.
Our industrial sector took off after independent relied on satellite firms representing British interest. The bank sector, which is constellation of colonial bank braches and some companies that were able to invest in manufacturing were the multi-national that have access to funds, technology, and managerial expertise. This greatly hindered the progress of indigenous entrepreneurs. The
12
Nigerian manufacturing sector has been described by Ikediala (1983) as consisting of more assembling plants. He says that the implication of this is that the industries have very little background linage in the economy, since the bulk of the inputs is imported, thus the manufacturing sector depends or imported raw-materials of 42%. The capacity utilization of manufacturing industries has always been low in this country. The reasons as put by CBN (1998) are not unconnected with raw materials scarcity, consumers’ resistance due to high prices, and increase in cost of manpower. Others mentioned are equipment breakdown due to poor technology, lack of spare parts. Time lies between when inputs are ordered for and when they arrive, cash flow problem in industries becomes a permanent features.
The Nigeria civil war brought about the deterioration of the oil palm grooves and plantations were abandoned and little if any new planting was undertaken. As a result of that, the output of palm oil and palm kernel declined drastically. But according to Onwuka (1985), the problems of palm products are due to the stagnation in the production of this wild palm tress, which are of low-yield quality, and the difficulties experience in harvesting them. In addition, the old system of pricing which guarantees low
13
production prices for palm produce discourage substantial investment from being made for further production of this product. Also, the problem of marketing boards cannot be over-looked.
Marketing board is an institution set up by the government with the exclusive right to buy and sell certain agricultural products. They purchase some products locally export sales are made through the Nigerian.
Marketing company, which is jointly owned by the state, one of the marketing functions of the marketing board is to stabilize the prices or our cash crops and hence creates stability of income for formers and to accumulate funds for development purposes. But the operation has failed to provide incentives to farmers to increase their input. Also, the producers aid unnecessary tax and they took from the producers some money, which should have gone to them as income they this reduced the amount of capital available to the producers.
This criticism, according to Adenira (1991) made the federal Government to reform the marketing board some with a view to increase producers’ prices and income. He said that the essential
14
features of the new authority while producer taxation (export duty and produce sale tax) has been abolished. Another major boards with the responsibility of market specific products wherever they are produced in the country. These boards are likely to reduce administrative problem and be more economical compared with all oil – produce state market boards previously in existence.
The major fault of the successive government that are supposed to sustain this sector through the building of macro-economic structures and incentives diverted their attention away from agriculture. The result was sharp in

 

THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC SPENDING ON POVERTY
REDUCTION IN NIGERIA [1980-2011]

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title page – – – – – – – – – – i
Certificate – – – – – – – – – – ii
Acknowledgement – – – – – – – – – iii
Tables of contents – – – – – – – – – iv
Abstract – – – – – – – – – – v
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the study – – – – – – – 1
1.2 Statement of the problem – – – – – – – 4
1.3 Research question – – – – – – – – 4
1.4 Objective of the study – – – – – – – 5
1.5 Research hypotheses – – – – – – – – 5
1.6 Significance of the study – – – – – – – 5
1.7 Scope and limitation of the study – – – – – – 6
CHAPTER TWO
2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW – – – – – – – 8
2.2.1 Theoretical literature – – – – – – – 10
2.2.2 Causes of Poverty – – – – – – – – 10
2.2.3 Poverty situation in Nigeria – – – – – – 11
2.2.4 The effects of poverty in Nigeria – – – – – 13
2.3 Empirical literature – – – – – – – – 15
2.3.1 Approaches to poverty alleviation in Nigeria – – – – 16
2.3.2 Poverty reduction strategies in Nigeria – – – – – 20
2.3.3 Causes of poverty reduction in Nigeria – – – – 25
2.3.4 Achievement of poverty reduction in Nigeria – – – 27
6
CHAPTER THREE
3.0 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY – – – – – 30
3.1 Methodology – – – – – – – – – 30
3.2 Model specification – – – – – – – – 30
3.3 Method of evaluation- – – – – – – – 32
3.3.1 Statistical Test – – – – – – – – 32
3.3.2 Econometric Criteria (Second-Order Test) – – – – 33
3.3.3 Economic A Priori Test – – – – – – – 34
3.4 Source of data – – – – – – – – 34
CHAPTER FOUR
RESULT PRESENTATION, INTERPRETATION AND DISCUSSION
4.1 Result presentation – – – – – – – – – 35
4.2 Result interpretation – – – – – – – – 36
4.2.1 Analysis of the Regression Coefficients – – – – 36
4.2.2 Analysis of the Evaluation Methods – – – – – 37
4.2.2.1 Evaluation Based on Economic Criteria – – – – 37
4.2.2.2 Evaluation Based on Statistical Criteria – – – – 38
4.2.2.3 Evaluation Based on Econometric Criteria – – – – 40
4.3 Hypothesis Testing – – – – – – – 43
Conclusion – – – – – – – – – 43
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION, AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Summary of Findings – – – – – – – 45
5.2 Recommendation – – – – – – – – 46
5.3 Conclusion – – – – – – – – – 48
References – – – – – – – – – 49
Journals – – – – – – – – – 50
Appendix I
7
ABSTRACT
This work was done to analyze the impact of public spending on poverty eradication in Nigeria from (1980-2011). In this research work, multiple regression analysis was used and five variables were used in the empirical analysis. They are government expenditure on agriculture and water resources (AGWR), health (HTH) education (EDU) transportation and communication (TRCM) and Housing and environment. The data used in this research was collected from secondary data obtained from National Bureau of Statistics (2008) (MBS), and CBN statistical bulletin. The major findings shows that government expenditure on health, education and transport and communication are insignificant and a unit increase of government expenditure in these sectors will reduce poverty level. While that of agriculture and water resources, and housing and environment are significant and a unit increase will increase poverty level. Recommendation were proffered based on the findings of this research. That the government at all level should ensure that its expenditure are channeled towards projects that will reduce poverty level in Nigeria.
CHAPTER ONE
8
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Public spending represents the annual expenditure by the federal government to achieve some macro-economic objectives which may include poverty reduction, increase in national productivity and macro-economic stability in the system.
Since the late 1980’s, an increase in public spending has become a major instrument in Nigeria. This was attributed to the following reasons as the major causes of an increase in government expenditure in Nigeria. First is the dominant role of public sector in major economic activities in Nigeria. This could be attributed to several factors among them are oil boom of the early 1970’s, the need for reconstruction of war affected areas after Nigerian civil war in 1970, the industrialization strategy adopted at that time by the federal government (import substitution strategy) and the need to raise gross domestic product (GDP).
On the other hand, the collapse of oil prices in and general mismanagement of the economy in 1980’s brought the issue of poverty eradication in Nigeria. Furthermore, the recent flood disaster in Nigeria has re-awakened the fight against poverty in Nigeria. In the mid 1980s, it was observed that the private sectors were declining in economic activities as measured by aggregate output, industrial production, non oil exports etc. were all showing
9
decreasing signs. Above all, there widespread evidence of massive poverty in the economy despite of the growing public expenditure and fiscal deficit in the economy (library of congress country studies 1980’s).
In 1986, all major socio-economic indicators were showing downwards which brought high rate of unemployment and decreased in purchasing power. Poverty was spending among Nigerians especially the low income earners and economic growth was downward sloping.
Poverty in Nigeria did not become an issue of great concern until after the oil boom when the international oil price crashed and there was an international economic slump. The continuous downward trend in the oil prices in the international market increased the poverty level in Nigeria. The over-dependency on oil revenue and inadequate efforts to mobilize funds from non oil sources led to a serious decline in government revenue. External reserve deteriorated, and cause huge accumulated trade arrears and thereby limiting government effort in provision of basic amenities and social facilities.
Thus the poverty level in Nigeria continues to be on the increased over the past few decades. The 1991 world development report (WDR) showed that Nigeria the most populous country in Africa has a significant number of her population categorized as poor people.
In recognition of the adverse effect of poverty in Nigeria, federal government set up Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) to reduce over
10
dependency on oil and to provide food to all Nigerians. This had been followed by the introduction of other policies such as national FADAMA programs. Furthermore, the federal government made poverty reduction the core objectives of its annual budget and also initiated various policies measures aimed at promoting people’s welfare and reducing poverty in the economy.
Poverty become an issue of global dimension with nations striving either to reduce or outright poverty in there economy. The complexity of the phenomenon and its impacts on national economics has attracted the attention of international organizations and agencies with government in different nations embarking on policies aimed at reducing poverty. Consequently, Nigerian fiscal policies especially as regard expenses in the areas that have positive impact on the well being of the poor, have progressively being on the increase over the years. Recently, the Imo State government took a bold step towards poverty reduction by introducing free education to all the indigenes of the state up to the tertiary level.
Finally, the extent to which government spending have impacted on the well being of the people prompted this study.
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1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
In Nigeria, poverty has been on the increase which can be attributed to inequality existing in the economy such as corruption, macro-economic instability and inconsistency in government policies. In an ordinary framework, poverty is concern with absolute, modulate or relatively standard of living or inability to attain a minimal standard of living. Poverty is found to be at the worst in the rural areas. Which is characterized by malnutrition lack of standard education, low life expectancy and sub-standard housing? In attempt to alleviate these problems, three actors are observed in the literature as being involved in any giving country. Namely; the three ties of government (federal, state and local government), international organizations and nongovernmental

THE IMPACT OF INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT ON THE
ECONOMY OF NIGERIA (1980-2010)

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ABSTRACT
This research work is on the “Impact of Industrial Output on the Economy of Nigeria” between the period of thirty years (30) covered from 1980-2010. Impact of industrial output on the economy of Nigeria is a continuous discussion to every economy especially developing economics which will give rise to economic growth and development of a nation. Secondary data was used on PC Give 8.00 version package to regress the model with GDP as the dependent variable, and industrial output, savings, net foreign capital flow, and inflation as independent variables. The model explain that the influence of industrial output on economic growth is not statistically significant, though the sign obtained from its à priori expectation is positively related to GDP but does not hold strong enough. Savings has a positive relationship and also significant impact on the economy. Inflation has a negative relationship while net foreign capital flow is positively significant on the impact of economic growth. R-squared shows a 76% increase on the GDP. Based on the findings, it is therefore recommended that some policies is to be made in ways to improve the establishment of industries especially the manufacturing industries to encourage industrialisation of the Nigerian economy so as to contribute to the strengthening of economic growth in the nation’s economy. Tax incentives through subsidies and government expenditure relate to increase in output and positive impact on economic growth. Increase in savings will make money available for the economy through high interest rate and income adjustments from the monetary policy.

TABLE OF CONTENT
Title page – – – – – – – – – -i
Approval page – – – – – – – – – -ii
Dedication – – – – – – – – – -iii
Acknowledgement – – – – – – – – -iv
Abstract – – – – – – – – – – -vi
Table of content – – – – – – – – -vii
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of study – – – – – – – -1
1.2 Statement of research problem – – – – – – -3
1.3 Objective of the study – – – – – – – -4
1.4 Statement of research hypothesis – – – – – -4
1.5 Significance of the study – – – – – – -5
1.6 Scope and limitation of the study – – – – – – 5
1.7 Methodology and sources of data – – – – – -5
1.8 Limitation of the study- – – – – – – – -6
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Theoretical literature – – – – – – – -7
2.1.1 Sources of industrial growth and industrial Policies in

Nigeria — – – – – – – – – -10
2.1.2 Characteristics of Nigeria industries – – – – -12
2.1.3 Manufacturing in Nigeria- – – – – – -13
2.1.4 The era of manufacturing in Nigeria – – – – -14
2.1.5 Structure and performance of Nigerian Manufacturing
Sector – – – – – – – – – -16
2.1.6 The roles of manufacturing industries in then Development
Of the Nigerian economy – – – – – – -21
2.1.7 Problems of industrial development in Nigeria – – – -25
2.2. Empirical review – – – – – – – – -28
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.0 Methodology – – – – – – – – -33
3.1 Model specification – – – – – – – -33
3.2 Model Estimation /procedure – – – – – – -35
3.3 Sources of Data- – – – – – – – -37
CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF
REGRESSION RESULT.
4.1 Presentation of result and analysis- – – – – -38
4.1.2 Interpretation of result – – – – – – – -39
4.2 Evaluation of result – – – – – – – -40
4.2.1 Evaluation based on economic a priori expectation- – -40

4.2.2 Evaluation based on statistical criteria – – – – -41
4.2.2.1 Statistical test of significant of parameter estimated
(T-statistics) – – – – – – – – -42
4.2.2.2 Adequacy of regression equation (F-Test) – – – -43
4.2.2.3 Goodness of fit test (R2) – – – – – – -44
4.2.3 Evaluation based on economic criteria – – – – -45
4.2.3.1 Test for auto-correlation – – – – – – -45
4.2.3.2 Test for Heteroscedasticity – – – – – – -46
4.2.3.3 Test for normality – – – – – – – -48
4.2.3.4 Test for multicollinearity – – – – – – -48
4.3 Evaluation research hypothesis – – – – – -50
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, POLICIES
RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION.
5.1 Summary of findings – – – – – – – -51
5.2 Policy recommendation – – – – – – – -52
5.3 Conclusion – – – – – – – – – -53
Bibliography – – – – – – – – -54
Journal – – – – – – – – – -56
Appendices

CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background Of Study
The oil boom of the 1970s made Nigeria neglected its agricultural and light manufacturing bases in favour of an unhealthy dependence on crude oil. In 2000, oil and gas export accounted for more than 98% of export earning and about 83% of federal government revenue. New oil wealth, the concurrent decline of other economic model fuelled massive migration to the cities and led to increasingly wide spread poverty especially in rural areas. A collapse of basic infrastructures and social services since the early 1980s accompanied this trend, (CIA, 2010).
By 2000, Nigeria‟s per capita income had plunged to about one quarter of its mid 1970s high, below the level at independence. Along with the endemic malaise of Nigeria‟s non-oil sector, the economy continues to witness massive growth of „informal sector‟ economic activities estimated by some to be as high as 75% of the total economy. The U.S United State remains Nigeria‟s customer for crude oil accounting for 40% of the country‟s total oil export, Nigeria provides about 10% of overall U.S oil import and ranks as the fifth-largest source for U.S imported oil and ranked 44th worldwide and third in Africa in factor output. (Adeolu B Anyawale,

Nigeria economy is struggling to leverage the country‟s vast wealth in fossil fuels in other to displace the crushing poverty that affects about 57% of its population. Economics refers to the consistence of vast wealth in national resources and extreme poverty in developing countries like Nigeria as a „resource course‟. 80% of Nigeria‟s revenue flow to the government, 16% covers operational cast and the remaining 4% goes to investors. World Bank has estimated that as a result of corruption, 80% of energy revenues, benefit only 1% of the population (Econspapers, hosted by Swedish Business School Orebro University).
Generally, the manufacturing sector which plays a catalytic role in a modern economy has many dynamic benefits crucial for economic transformation is a leading sector in many aspects (Oguma, 1995) says it creates investment capital at a faster rate than any other sector of the economy. Available evidence showed that the share of manufacturing value in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 3.2% in 1960. In 1977, its share of GDP increased to 5.4% and in 1992 grew to 13%. The share of the manufacturing in GDP fell to 6.2 in 1993, while overall manufacturing capacity utilization rate fluctuated downwards to 2.4% in 1998.
In 2003, the manufacturing sector accounted for 4% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Ojo, 1987:256). A country is industrialised when at least one-quarter of this Gross Domestic Product(GDP) is produced in its industrial output arises in the manufacturing section of industrial sectors, and when at
Impact Of Industrial Output On The Economy Of Nigeria (1988-2010)

least one length of its total population is employed in the industrial sectors of the economy. The manufacturing sector is to be dominant in terms of contribution to the Gross Domestic Product of any economy especially that of Nigeria (Auty, 1993).
1.2 Statement Of The Research Problem
The malfunctioning of industrial sector in a country is widely seen as a major handicap improving a country‟s economy and power pushing many governments to encourage or enforce industrialization (Wikipedia, free encyclopaedia). One of the problems bedevilling the Nigeria economy is that of output from its industrial sector of the economy. Admittedly, the decay in the manufacturing sector is the result of diverse factors that conspire to render many industries comatose (ill). The study is therefore necessary to enable a thorough investigation of the problems of the industrial sector especially that of manufacturing industries and various government agencies set up to provide credit facilities to the industrial sector to ensure continual growth of this sector for rapid economic development of this nation. In the light of this exposition, the research work is guided by the following question.

THE IMPACT OF FEMALE LABOUR FORCE ON THE ECONOMIC
GROWTH OF NIGERIA (1980-2010)

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ABSTRACT
A country’s labour force consists of everyone of the working age, typically above the age of seventeen and below the retirement age of sixty- five. They are characterized by those who are actively employed or seeking employment. The focus of this study is to determine the impact of female participation in labour force on the economic growth in Nigeria between the periods of 1980- 2010. The research also seeks to investigate the determinants of female contribution to economic growth in Nigeria. The objective of this study is to determine the relationship between female labour force and economic growth in Nigeria (GDP).The data used was sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics of various years as well as the CBN Statistical Bulletin (volume 21) December, 2010. The ordinary least square method (OLS) was chosen as the estimation tool because of its advantage over other estimation techniques.The major finding was that female labour force employment has a positive impact on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Nigeria economy. Based on the findings, some recommendations of policy and suggestions have been made.
viii
TABLE OF CONTENT
Title Page – – – – – – – – – – -i
Approval Page – – – – – – – – – -ii
Dedication – – – – – – – – – – -iii
Acknowledgement – – – – – – – – -iv
Abstract – – – – – – – – – – -vi
Table of Content — – – – – – – – – -vii
Chapter One
Introduction
1.1 Background of the Study – – – – – – -1
1.2 Statement of the Problem – – – – – – -4
1.3 Objectives of the Study- – – – – – – -6
1.4 Statement of Hypothesis – – – – – – -7
1.5 Relevance of the Study – – – – – – – -7
1.6 Scope of the Study – – – – – – – -8
1.7 Limitations of the Study – – – – – – -8
Chapter Two
Literature Review
ix
2.1 Theoretical Literature – – – – – – – -9
2.2 Empirical Literature – – – – – – – 26
2.3 Economic Analysis of Women’s Contribution To
Economic Growth in Nigeria – – – – – – – 30
2.4 Limitations of the Previous Studies – – – – – 35
Chapter Three
3.1 Methodology – – – – – – – – 36
3.2 Model Specification – – – – – – – – 37
3.2 Methods of Evaluation – – – – – – – 37
3.4 Model Justification — – – – – – – 39
3.5 Data Requirement and Sources – – – – – 40
Chapter Four
Presentation and Analysis of Results
4.1 Presentation of Regression Result – – – – – 41
4.2 Result Interpretation – – — – – – – 41
Chapter Five
Summary, Recommendationsand Conclusion
5.1 Summary – – – – – – – – – 48
5.2 Policy Recommendations – – – – – – 48
5.3 Conclusion – – – – – – – – – 50
Bibliography – – – – – – – – – 51
1
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Gender differentiation and productivity are critical issues that are central to the socio-economic life of any country. Women contribute half or more of the country’s population, but they contribute much less than men towards the value of recorded production both quantitatively in labour force participation and qualitatively in educational achievement and skilled manpower (Olukemi, 2008). The extent to which these phenomena are discussed varies from country to country. While the developed countries have practicallygraduated from endemic problems of gender differentiation, their less developed counterparts are still battling it. A close overview of world economies show that women have often been looked down upon in terms of their ability to contribute to the economic well- being of their families which invariably has some correlation to a nation’s economic growth. The under-utilization of female labour as well has obvious implications for economic welfare and growth. In particular, the participation of women in labour force appears to depend much more on the social environment than is the case for men.
2
In the light of the above, arguments have risen in favour or against women in their roles towards economic growth and development. Traditional African Gender Theory suggests that women are less important such that they are relegated to the upkeep of domestic chores. It is therefore not surprising that the clamors for more birth were and are still being emphasized till date. The theory holds that women should in no way be found rubbing minds with their husbands in family meetings, and community gatherings. Traditionally, women were regarded as homemakers, who oversee and coordinate the affairs and activities at home. Previously, in Africa, women remained at home while their husbands and sons went out to the farm to work. However, women are never idle at home. They are engaged in manual processing of food crops and other farm produce in addition to their housekeeping duties. The neo-classical are in support of this idea as they failed to acknowledge society induced differences between men and women in the face of economic growth. Thus, they remarked that markets clear automatically given pareto efficiency and that what is economically rational at the individual level is also economically rational for the society as a whole.
Despite these extreme views, there exists a clarion call all over the world for increased women participation in the socio- economic development
3
of nations. This is because of the roles that women play in economic growth and development. Danish (2001) notes that women opportunities to contribute to the development of societies need should be improved.Otherwise, economic growth in developing countries will be constraint and the ability to care for the environment in these countries reduced. One of the studies conducted by World Bank in 2003, shows that investments in women yield large social and economic returns, adding that young girls and boys should have the same opportunities to lead full and productive lives.
With the advent of Western education, industrialization and paid employment, men as well as women drifted into the modern sector of the economy. And today, there are visible changes in the perception of women, principally because they have greater opportunities for education than before. It is therefore not in doubt that economically empowered women play veritable role in household decision- making, with greater bargaining power to increase spending on education, health and other areas of family needs. Such women especially the economically sound ones, have better opportunities for entrepreneurship and to earn higher wages

THE RELATIVE IMPACT OF OIL AND NON-OIL EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: 1983-2007

 

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MONEY BACK GUARANTEE

 

ABSTRACT

The study is made up of two independent models, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Investment respectively. The independent variables Oil export, Non-oil export, Real exchange rate and Inflation rate were modeled to capture their effect on GDP and Investment respectively.

The study employed Log Linear Model. Following the empirical findings in this study, we observed that, Non-oil export have not contributed a lot to economic growth in Nigeria but other indicators exert enough pressure on the strength of the economy, evidence from the result of the first model. Judging from the result of the second model, Oil export proves a negative non significant variable with investment growth in Nigeria.

The study recommends appropriate economic policies, institutional reforms and massive political will for the country to address the issues of dwindling exportation of Non-oil sector and the trap of Dutch Disease associated with oil-dependency.

 

Pages

LIST OF TABLE

Unit Root Test for Stationarity ——————————————- 42

Co-integration Result —————————————————— 45

Modeling Log of Differenced GDP by OLS ————————— 45

Modeling Log of Differenced INV by OLS —————————- 46

Summary of t-statistic test for model 1 ———————————- 50

Summary of t-statistic test for model 2 ———————————- 52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE OF CONTENT

Title page —————————————————————-        i

Approval page ———————————————————-        ii

Dedication ————————————————————–         iii

Acknowledgement —————————————————–         iv

Abstract —————————————————————–          v

List of tables ———————————————————–          vi

Table of content ——————————————————-          vii

CHAPTER ONE

• Introduction ——————————————————- 1

1.1 Background of study ———————————————                    1

1.2 Statement of problem ——————————————–           3

1.3 Objective of the study ——————————————-           5

1.4 Statement of hypothesis —————————————–           5

1.5 Significance of the study —————————————-           6

1.6 Scope and limitations of the study —————————–            6

CHAPTER TWO

2.1 Meaning of oil and non-oil exports —————————-           7

2.2 A brief historical perspective on oil in Nigeria ————–             7

2.3 Oil and economic policies in Nigeria ————————-             10

2.4 The Dutch-Disease ———————————————-            15

2.5 The boom and burst periods in oil sector and policy response —–17

2.6 Macroeconomic policies and structure of Non-oil export in Nigeria-22

2.7 Oil export, Non-oil export and Economic growth in Nigeria ——- 26

Empirical Literature—————————————————-29

CHAPTER THREE

Research methodology——————————————————–35

3.1 Model Specification——————————————————35

3.2 Method of Evaluation—————————————————-37

CHAPTER FOUR

4.1 Data presentation———————————————————41

4.2 Data Analysis ————————————————————44

CHAPTER FIVE

Summary, Conclusion and Recommendation—————————58

5.1 Summary——————————————————————58

5.2 Conclusion—————————————————————-61

5.3 Recommendation———————————————————62

BIBLIOGRAPHY———————————————————66

Appendix

 

CHAPTER ONE

                                  INTRODUCTION

1.1THE BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Oil, a very versatile and flexible, non-reproductive, depleting, natural (hydrocarbon) is a fundamental input into modern economic activity, providing about 50% of the total energy demand in the world. (Anyanwu J.C. et al, 1997)

Petroleum or crude oil is an oily, bituminous liquid consisting of a mixture of many substances, mainly the element of carbon and hydrogen known as hydrocarbons. It also contains very small amounts of non-hydrocarbon elements, chief amongst which are sulphur (about 0.2 to 0.6% in weight), then nitrogen and oxygen. (Anyanwu J.C. et al, 1997)

Non-oil exports comprises of agricultural products, solid mineral, textile, tyre, manpower, etc. it is made up of every other thing we export, except petroleum products. In the decades of the 1960s and 1970s, the Nigeria economy was dominated by agricultural commodity exports. Such commodities include cocoa, groundnut, cotton and palm produce. From the mid 1970s, crude oil became the main export produce of the Nigerian economy. (Anyanwu J.C. et al 1997)

The development of the petroleum (oil) industry in the country began in 1909. It started with exploration activities by the German Bitumen Corporation, but their search for oil seized after the First World War because the Germans started the war and lost in the war. With Nigeria being under British sectorial control, it was only natural that the Germans had to stop their exploration activities.

In 1937, an oil prospecting license was granted to shell D’Arcy Exploration parties. The first commercial discovery of crude oil in Nigeria was made in 1956 by shell at Oloibiri. The company started production and in 1961 the Federal government of Nigeria issued ten oil prospecting licenses on the continental shelf to five companies. Each license covered was subject to the payment of N1 million. With this generous concession full-scale on-shore and off –shore oil exploration began.

Oil was found in commercial quantities at Oloibiri in the Niger delta, further discoveries at Afam and Boma established the country as an oil-producing nation. The Nigerian crude oil is described as a sweet type because of its lightness and its low sulphur content. It was largely sought-after in the international oil market.

The global perception of Nigeria is that of a really blessed oil producing nation, but with a growing poverty index. (Maaji Umar YAKUB, 2008). The problems of low economic performance of Nigeria cannot be attributed solely to instability of earnings from the oil sector, but as a result of failure by government to utilize productively the earnings from the export of crude oil from the mid 1970s to develop other sectors of the economy. Nigeria is among the poorest countries in the world, with the poverty incidence estimated at 54% in 2006. The economy has been substantially unstable, a consequence of the heavy dependence on oil revenue and the volatility in its prices. The oil boom of the 1970s led to the neglect of non-oil tax revenue, expansion of the public sector, and deterioration in financial discipline and accountability. In turn, oil-dependency exposed Nigeria to oil price volatility which threw the country’s public finance into disarray.

This study will examine the relative impact of oil and non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria.

 

• STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Oil is a major source of energy in Nigeria and the world (in general). Oil being the mainstay of the Nigerian economy plays a role, vital role in shaping the economy and political destiny of the country. It was towards the end of the Nigerian civil war (1967-1970) that the oil industry began to play a prominent role on the economic life of the country.

Non-oil product on the other hand plays an important role in the economic growth and development of the country. Non-oil exports, especially agricultural product like groundnut, palm oil, cotton, natural rubber, coffee, gum Arabic, sesame seed, etc. was our main stay before the period of the oil boom. It was during that period (that is, period of oil boom) that Nigerians neglected non-oil exports to an extent.

Nigeria can be categorized as a country that is primarily rural, that is, it depends on primary product export (especially, oil product). Since the attainment of independence in 1960 it has experienced ethnic, regional and religious tensions, magnified by significant disparities in economic, educational and environmental development in the south and in the north. This could be partly attributed to the major discovery of oil in the country which affects and is affected by economic and