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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSES AND EFFECTS OF EXAMINATION MALPRACTICE

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSES AND EFFECTS OF EXAMINATION MALPRACTICE IN THE TERTIARY INSTITUTION.

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CHAPTER ONE:         INTRODUCTION

1.1            Statement of problem

1.2            Examination malpractice

1.3            Aims and objectives

1.4            Statement of hypothesis

1.5            Scope of the study

1.6            Significance of the study

1.7            Limitation of the study

1.8            Terminology associated with exams malpractice

 

 

CHAPTER TWO        

2.0            Literature Review

CHAPTER THREE:    METHODOLOGY

3.1            The target population

3.2            Statistical sample design

3.3            Determination of sample size

3.4            Method of data collection

3.5            Problems encounter during data collection

3.6            Sex distribution of respondents

3.7            Age distribution of respondents

3.8            Distribution by sex and academic level

3.9            Method of data analysis

3.10       The chi-square (x2) test

3.11       Assumption on the use of x2 test

3.12       Formular distribution for spiegel (1992)

3.13       Calculation of expected frequency

3.14       The contingency co-efficient

3.15       Testing the significance of the continuance co-efficient

3.16       Student opinion on the causes of examination malpractice in institute of management technology

3.17       Contribution of the method of teaching in the school to students’ lact of interest

3.18       Student on the common form of examination malpractice in the institute of management

3.19       Distribution of student opinion on school that is most often involved in exam malpractice.

 

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0            Presentation and analysis of statistical data

4.1            Using pie chart

4.2            Using multiple bar chart

 

CHAPTER FIVE

5.0            Summary of findings recommendation and conclusion

5.1            Summary of finding

5.2            Recommendation and conclusion

Bibliography

Appendix i

Appendix ii

Appendix iii

Appendix iv

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1     STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

          That we are living in a changing world is a popular statement which needs little explanation especially when the knowledge of today can be the fully of tomorrow or when a human being of today can oil to exist on the day that follows when such natural phenomena occur, one does not bother as to ask why these happen out when they are accompanied by abnormal happenings on become worried and asks why which he seldom finds and such is examination malpractice.

Examination malpractices in our tertiary institution have become a social molady which have adversely affected the have and have notes, the hardworking and society in general such corrupt practices have succeeded in tarnishing the past government and management of such institution employed different strategies to move up the shameful situation from our tertiary institution, but unfortunately all their efforts were uneventful or uncertainly.

 1.2    BACKGROUND OF STUDY

          Some of the examination rules which one should not violate are.

(a)              Avoiding conversation while examination is in progress

(b)             Coming into the hall with you identity card

(c)              Submitting answer script after proper endured before going out of the hall

(d)             Refrain oneself from copying or writing for another obedience to the invigilator.

(e)              Not coming to the hall with expected answer written as pieces of paper.

As regards to these rules, one who violate them is likely to face the consequences for it by the committee.  The punishment depends on the magnitude of the offence. Some of the offence after being looked into by the committee one is asked to withdraw from the institution or stay back.  These culprit would not be caught without the proper vigilance of the invigilator or supervisor.  Therefore, having seen from above I can now say malpractice is legal action taken by a person in a position of trust.  This means when applied to examination situation that any contrary action performed by someone against certain examination regulation can be termed examination malpractice.

Statistics has shown the examination malpractice became a very common they in early eighteen and as a result, the instant had to set up a coming that will have to be looking into these malpractice cases.  This committee was inaugurated in 1982/83 and was called “Examination Malpractice Committee”.

This committee spells out the appropriate punishment for any culprits involve.

According to the institution (IMT) academe and examination regulations prepared in June 1992, some of the regulation which candidates are required to comply with are.

  1. All students shall arrive at the designated examination hall thirty minutes before the scheduled time.
  2. No student shall enter the hall unless they are asked to do so by the co-ordinator
  3. A student must enter examination hall with current original school fees receipt current identity card, pencil etc
  4. Calculator if required but not a programmable type
  5. Ruler and any other material table etc that may be permitted by the chief invigilator.
  6. If a candidate report to the examination without his/her I.D card, he/she should report to the chief – co-ordinators with a recent passport photograph endorsed by the it on

If it is discovered that the person who wrote the examination is not the owner of the identity card, it became a case of impersonation.

  1. No candidate shall have other material in his/her possession, even a private letter, while he/she is inside the examination hall.
  2. No caps, head ties and sun-glasses shall be allowed and student writing the same paper shall not sit side by side.
  3. No candidate is allowed to enter the examination hall sixty 960) minutes after the examination hall is prohibited.
  4. Students are not allowed to tear any paper from either the question paper or answer script for any purpose including rough work.  All rough works must be done at the back of his/her answer scripts and then be cancelled.  No rough work is permitted on the question paper on the desk at his or palm or anything else other than the answer scrip.
  5. No student wishing to draw the attention            of invigilators to  any particular issue shall do only by raising his/her hand.
  6. No alteration or cancellation is allowed on the registration number and blank spaces must be ruled across by students.
  7. All students in the examination hall entitled to sign the attendance shall I.D cards to the invigilator who will then sign your answer script indication that you are presence in the examination day.
  8. Student shall ensure that they enter the question attempted in the appropriate columns on the front cover of the script.
  9. Student must rule across all blank spaces of the examination answer booklets used during the examination i.e. either by cheating, copying, using material etc other than the one specified.

1.3     AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

The aims and objectives of this study are

  1. To find out whether examination malpractice depend on sex, school, academic level.
  2. To determine whether examination malpractice committee has helped to reduce examination malpractice in IMT.
  3. To know the commonest examination practice in IMT
  4. To determine the school/faculty that indulges most in examination malpractice in IMT and suggest why.
  5. To suggest its effect on the standard of education for example on IMT and to suggest ways of minimizing them.
  6. To find out whether lecturers has contributed to the examination.

1.4     STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS

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A STATISTICAL QUALITY CONTROL IN THE BAKER INDUSTRY (A CASE STUDY OF HIGHLIFE BAKERY EMENE ENUGU)

A STATISTICAL QUALITY CONTROL IN THE BAKER INDUSTRY

(A CASE STUDY OF HIGHLIFE BAKERY EMENE ENUGU)

 

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ABSTRACT

          The thesis of “statistical quality control on the production of Bread” emphasizes on the application of statistical techniques in the creation of goods statistical techniques in the creation of goods and services which is of utmost important to humanity.  Everyday, human being makes use of manufactured products for their daily consumption and livelihood.  This consumers are ignorant of the processes the food had gone trough before consumption.  They are also ignorant of how the raw materials were collected, how they are processed, they are only involved at last stage of the production which is the eventual resulted output from the raw materials.

 

Therefore, it is of immense important that trails and correction of errors are following continuously in the production process in a firm such that when errors and short comings are corrected, it will provide an area for a reliable but standardized quality of output thereby enhancing the products as well as giving the desirable quality of products to the entire members of the society In this research work, there is every tendency to illustrate this desirable impact of quality control in production of bread.

 

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title page                                                                                ii

Certification                                                                                      iii

Dedication                                                                               iv

Acknowledgement                                                                             v

Abstract                                                                                  vi

Table of contents                                                                     vii

CHAPTER ONE

Introduction                                                                                      1

1.1     Background of the study                                                         1

1.2     Statement of the problems                                             3

1.3     Aims/objectives of the study                                          5

1.4     Limitation of the study                                                  6

1.5     Definition of terms                                                                  7

CHAPTER TWO

The Review Of The Related Literature                                    11

CHAPTER THREE

Research methodology                                                            25

3.1     Steps to consider when constructing

acceptance sampling secheme                                        37

3.2     The role of statistics in production industry                           38

CHAPTER FOUR

Data analysis and presentation                                                         39

4.1     Method of data collection                                              39

4.2     Summary/interpretation of results                                 59

CHAPTER FIVE

Conclusion                                                                              61

5.1     Summary of the study                                                   61

5.2     Findings                                                                         63

5.3     Conclusion                                                                     64

5.4     Recommendation                                                           65

Bibliography                                                                  67

 


CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1     BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

          Production as the term entails creation of goods and services which is important to humanity.  The concept of statistical study encompasses the whole activities involved in the process of collection, organisation, analyzing, presentation and interpretation of the numerical data collected.  Quality control comprise the system of inspection analysis and action applied to a manufacturing operation in inspecting a small portion of product anvently produced.

 

In modern day industries, the complexities of industrial production and management has proved it necessary that the management must be supplied with statistical data of those concerning output, cost of raw materials etc, in order to achieve greater effectiveness in the combination of these factors used in production.

 

The statistical concept which involves the systematic collective of numerical data and the scientific method of drawing conclusion, inference to result on the basis of the collected information.  This two processes correspond to the main branches of statistics which are descriptive and inferential statistics respectively and which made them applicable to all human endeavours.

 

Therefore the introduction of quality control as a statistical technique will enable firms to avoid shortcoming in the running and executive of function in such organisation. The standard of the product of an industry depends on it’s quality, most production firms encounter some problems in the quality levels of their products.  Before production starts a decision is necessary so as to know what is to be made.  Next comes the actual manufacturing of the product.

 

Finally it must be determined whether the product manufactured is what was intended.  It is convenient to think of all matters related to quality of manufacturing product in terms of these function of specification production, and inspection.

 

Although the introduction of process inspection is some time a by product, it should be noted that a direct object of statistical quality control is to provides a new tool that makes process inspection more effective.  The information obtained by process inspection – either conducted by roving inspections or by machine operators themselves is often misused to make too frequent machine adjustments.

 

Therefore the use of statistical quality control is based on.     Whether to continue production, to stop production and look for an assignable cause of defect.

 

1.2     STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

          Product standardization of an industry depends on it’s quality.  Some problems are being encountered during production in the quality level of their products.  Before product starts, a decision is necessary so as to know what is to be made or produce. After that comes the actual manufacturing of the products than manufacture red is as following.

In examining the theoretical process of bread or bakery.  There is the obvious involvement of measurement of quantities and the mixing of proportionate quantities of raw materials and even the timing of the process.

Therefore the use of statistical quality control is based on

  1. Whether to continued production or
  2. To s top production and look for an assignable cause of detects.

Here it should be noted that a treat object of statistical quality control is to provide a better ways to improve product quality.  The issues of acceptance of raw material and manufactured product will meet bias judgement if a statistical standard is not, used in the judgement of acceptance and rejection of manufactured products.  Some questions came to my mind.  Do some of these manufactured bakery bread that consumers buy conform to the set standard for them?

 

1.3     AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

          The study of quality control has given a lot of impact in modern day industries.  This is due to scientific method under which it is being used in achieving the desired good in the quality standard of output produced.  When we talk about quality control in the industries. Will say the degree to which a product meets the requirement of the customers.  There are many aims and objectives while it should be embraced, and some of these reasons are.

To construct statistical quality control chart for the key raw materials in use to maintain process assessment of both men and machine finally to output stage.

To construct statistical quality control for the product of highlife bakery Emene to revealed some practical problems that may arise is the control of Bakery Industries.

To also suggest better ways of improving product quality in Highlife Bakery.

 

1.4     LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

          In the course of this study, I encounter many problems and moralization from some industries and other things I intended to study on.   Thus I made sure I fought tooth and nail to see that win or achieved my goal.  Some of this problems encounter are:

  1. Problems in time schedule: I encountered problems of deferred appointment.  Both where I collected my data and where I collected the materials I sued in writing.
  2. Expenses encountered during the collection of these data both transportation and other miscellaneous expenses too numerous to mention.
  3. Insufficient materials: There was not enough statistical quality control test book in school library.  This required me going from one library to the other and also some organisation like standard organisation of Nigeria to collect material to write on.
  4. Companies turned me down due to the suspicious nature of the job. They refused to allow me enter their production section, may be on the process of the research, secrets in their product might made public.

By going to Highlife Bakery Company to collect those data needed and ask them question for the workers or production manager.

 

1.5     DEFINITION OF TERMS

  1. CONTROL CHART: This is a graphical display of actual measurement of a quality characteristics on a chart showing limits which reflect the process capability on the characteristics
  2. QUALITY CONTROL: This is the degree to which a product meets the requirement of the customer
  3. PROCESS CONTROL: This is a method of statistical quality control used during production while the production is being made.
  4. SPECIFICATION LIMITS: These are those variation that exist within a specified standard.  This include the upper and lower control limit which provides the basis for the acceptance or rejection of input material and the finished goods.
  5. PROCESS VARIABILITY: This is those differences among process existing within the specified unit.
  6. RECTIFICATION: This is 100% inspection of a lot or batch reflected so as to remove all the defective and replace them.
  7. SPECIFICATION: A specification is a set of standard to which a process is to conform to difference unit.
  8. ATTRIBUTE: A qualitative characteristics of an items
  9. QUALITY: Degree of selective excellence good attribute.
  10. Control charts is a chart on which the quality control characteristics be of a product being analyzed are plotted in sequence as a function of time
  11. DEFECTIVE: This is a standard that the goods have run short of expectation.
  12. PRODUCTION: Putting together of some material or effort to reach object.
  13. STANDARD SPECIFICATION: A specification adopted for use by a trade associate.
  14. TOLERANCE: Is the variability allowed is a process line.
  15. STATISTICAL TOLERANCE LIMITS: The limits computed from the results of a sample test between which under a given assumptions.
  16. STATISTICS: A branch of science which has to do with data collection which represents fact.
  17. QUALITY DESIGN: It deals with measure of the excellence of the design in relation to the customer’s requirement.
  18. ASSURANCE: Which is the provision of evidence is proof that requirement have been met.
  19. ACCEPTANCE SAMPLING: Is a tool for the quality of manufactured product.

 

 

 

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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF STUDENT ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE USE OF HANDOUT ( A CASE STUDY OF INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT AND TECHNOLOGY ENUGU)

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF STUDENT ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE USE OF HANDOUT ( A CASE STUDY OF INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT AND TECHNOLOGY ENUGU)

 

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08074466939 Or 08063386834,   The Project Title  You  Selected On Our Website , Amount Paid, Depositor Name, Your Email Address, Payment Date. You Will Receive Your Material In Less Than 1 Hour Once We Confirm Your Payment.

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ABSTRACT

 

Due to the falling standard of education especially in our tertiary institution of learning the study was based on analysis on handout and generally student’s attitude towards them.

In view of this, primary data was used in the study to obtain data from the student by the use of questionnaires. The following methods of analysis are employed, chi-square lest, population proportion and percentage and analysis of variance (ANOVA)

The justification of this research less in the fact that handout should not be an alternative to lecture note, it should be a mean to the end and not the end itself. Also handout has a significant effect on the academic performance of student in the real sense, but the price of handout should not be made too exboitant by the lectures.

Based on these, it would be our belief that this research work will help in the control of the falling standard of education in Nigeria. as a whole.

 

 

THREE

Research Methodology

  • Data collection
  • Sampling frame
  • Sampling technique
  • Pilot survey
  • Determination of sample size for pilot survey

CHAPTER FUR

The General Format Chi-Square Test Using contingency table

CHAPTER FIVE

Summary Of The Finding Conclusion And Recommendations

  • Findings
  • Conclusion
  • Recommendation

References

Appendix

 

 

  1. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF STUDY

Safety on our road has become an important task in Enugu State because of higher density of traffic and high level of mortality on our roads. The road safety commission in Enugu state in charge with the responsibility for traffic control, regulation and prevention of road accident in the state and its conventional law enforcement tasks.

  1. To examine the vote motorist violates road rule in Enugu State.
  2. To examine the role of road safety commission in the management of road traffic and enforcement of driving codes.

METHOD OF COLLECTION OF DATA

This research is purely based on secondary data indicating the note and magnitude of road offenders recorded in Enugu State within a specified period.

  • Specified period
  • Offensive codes reports
  • Library research
  • Multiple bar chart

 

  1. AIMS AND OBJECTIVE OF STUDY

The recent prescription order on the sale of handouts in an institution of higher learning of the government was greeted with mixed feeling. How was design to strengthen the willing performance of students and the falling standard of education in our country. However the direct benefactors (students) in this issue were indifferent to the decision of those that are in authority.

Consequently this research work is being designed to reveal among other thing.

  1. To determine of handout have any significant effect on students performance.
  2. To determine f student’s attitude to handout is independent of school and students perception of lecture note.
  3. To determine the average amount is significantly different from school to school.
  4. To determine student general reaction to the price f handout.
  5. To find out the view of lecturer towards the sale and are of handouts in institution of higher learning.

 

METHOD OF COLLECTION DATA

  1. Data were collected primarily from the original source through the use of questionnaires administered to sample from each school in the institution.
  2. Sampling frame and Sampling technique

 

  1. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF STUDY
  2. To determine whether the awareness depend on sex
  3. To determine whether the level awareness is the same in all level of study
  4. To determine the percentage proportion of students awareness about the existence of Aids
  5. To suggest possible recommendation how to increase the level of awareness amongst student.

METHOD OF COLLECTION OF DATA

The data used in this project work is both primary and secondary data

(i)      Method of sampling

 


CHAPTER ONE

 

INTRODUCTION

  • BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

The historical development of education in Nigeria shows much difference between the present mode and policies of education than the 1950’s and 1960’s.

These were few primary and secondary schools than as well as few institutions of higher learning’s. These were also few students than and this was the colonial administration eva in Nigerian. Lectures were very effective because of appropriate control in the few universities and polytechnics /teachers training colleges.

In addition, the textbooks were mainly foreign most of them were from the United Kingdom. They were cheap and easy to procuse. Most of the textbooks were ordered for and received on schedule for a particular subject.

Students were taught to be good ambassador of their various villages and taken, so as to be good representative of their areas of origins.

Qualitative education was being giving then, student craved for knowledge and not studying only to pass examinations in schools. Reading was under conducive environments.

 

The present stage can be termed as the quantitative type of education. Where there are quantitative backgrounds necessitated building in numberable primary schools, post primary schools as institution of higher learning both in towns and villages. Worse still is the creation of more states, which has increased the numbers of universities and polytechnics.

 

Numbers of student admitted into each department yearly are now too many for lecture to control and supervise. The classroom became inadequate to accommodated students who intend to receive lectures yet mega-phones were not used to magnify anchor for the benefit of innumerable students who struggle to listen to the lectures in the classroom.

In the process many students return from lecture center with many complain of not benefiting from lecture delivered. The final consequence is poor result in quizzes and examination which may not be the fault of the students.

 

As a result of this complains some of the wise lecture thought it necessary to put their lectures in printing form and distribute to student to read at home for proper understanding of the subject under study. They do this, by extracting facts from relevant works of exports.

 

This is the advert of handout into the educational system of Nigeria. This has become so popular for the institutional procedures and almost inevitable handout according to oxford English Dictionary is a prepared statement given eg leaflet, statements by politicians to news men etc. Given free of changes as a gift of food, money and other items. This means, that handout is supposed to be free gift from the lecturers to the students as aid to effective learning. Developing counties have experienced the benefit of distant education offered by the overseas universities to students by the use of handouts issued by raid examine and Nigeria exams success Yaba Lagos to students offering G.C.E in time past.

Handouts are quite handy and easy to glance through by the students. Easy assimilation and easily retentive. They are cheap to precuve and save the students from stressful search for textbooks, which are highly costly to but, especially at this current economic recession in Nigeria.

 

But in this present days, the basic aim of handout introduction into institution of higher learning is being abused. Handouts have become sources of wealth to many lectures, who had made it compulsory for students to buy at high prices without which the students want to fail, they resort to demanding higher expenses from their parents and guardian in order to meet up. Where parents cannot meet up demands, students are now forced to involve in social problems.

 

On the other hand, since buying of the handouts by students is criteria of passing the quizzes and examinations, students refuses to make research from textbooks and concentrate on handouts. This lead to poor quality turns out of graduates from universities and polytechnics.

In other words, instead of the student to exploit the benefits that is offered by handouts, some complain about being exploited by lectures through the issues handout  to them.

The main issued now is to find out the actual attitude of students towards the use of handouts in institution of higher learning in Nigeria. This is the main theme of this work

 

  • STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

The main aim of education is to acquire knowledge in institution of all dimensions. The effectiveness of the acquisition of knowledge institution is been measured by the level of passes in quizzes and examination. Qualitative and effective lecturer which is well understood by students makes the success in quizzes and examination easy. And study aids in which handouts feature prominently are essential to elevate the student’s success through quizzes and examinations. Introduction of handout has a very good intentions on students, but the high cost of the handouts is making students to have mixed feeling parents and guardians of student complain abut the exploitation of students by lecturers through handouts. On the other hand, lecturers have to cover the cost of material used in the production of the handouts. Our major issue now in this study is to know the cost-benefit analysis so as know the attitude of students towards the use of handout either justifiable or not justifiable.

  • AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF STUDY

The recent prescription order on the sales of handouts in institution of higher learning by the government was greeted with mixed feelings. How it was design to strengthen the dwinding performance of students and falling standard f education in our country. However the direct benefactor (students) in this issue was indifferent to the decision of those that are in authority.

Consequently this research work is been designed to reveal among others things

  1. To determine if handouts have any significant effect on students performances.
  2. To determine if student’s attitudes to handout is independent of school and students perception of lecture note.
  3. To determine the average amount spent on handouts by students and to is significantly different from school to school
  4. To determine student general reaction to the prices of handouts.
  5. To find out the views of lecturers towards the sales and are of handouts in institution of higher learning.

 

 

  • SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

The study would be of a great help to the students, lectures and even the general public. It would serve as a guide to institutions of higher learning, for effective dynamic and smooth running of schools. However the research work is meant to:

  • Fusnesh the best guide to the sale and use of handout.
  • To justify the nation of sales of handout in schools.
  • This survey is set out to meet these needs with a view to make a useful findings, conclusion and recommendations to students, school authorities researcher and government in particular as a guide to a god sound educational policy in Nigeria.

 

 

  • LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

This project was seriously constrained by a number of factors, the most pronounced of which were time and money.

TIME: Time was by far the most important hindrance to this work. Since we were tied down with serious studies for our examinations, this research was not given the most appropriate or enough treatment possible. So far this, the assertion that time is money, seems to have us in contemplation. We had to work seriously round the clock to make this work possible.

MONEY: We strongly believe that money makes things go easier. Limited funds at that particular time also posed some threats to the realisation and completion of this work.

Going to libraries for days, meeting and pleading with students to fill the questionnaires in time since they felt it was very close to examination period, it couldn’t take out time from their light schedule to do such.

The typesetting and binding the finding into booklet all demanded a lot in monetary terms.

 

 

  • ASSUMPTION

We assume accurate and reliable data and figure and at the end of this study. We would be able to know the merit and demerit of the use of handout in our great institution f higher learning (I.M.T) and it using attitude from school to the others.

 

 

  • DEFINITION OF TERMS

SAMPLING: This is the act of selecting some unit from a population for purpose of study.

Chi-square test: It is a use of contingency table in a classification of frequency data on the basis of two or more quantitative characteristics or attributes

Analysis of variance (ANOVA): A method used for partitioning the total variation of a set of observation into component due to specified factors.

Degree of dependent: This is the use of coefficient of contingency to measure the degree of association between two characteristics which are show to be independent.

Frame: The frame is a comprehensive listing of the entire unit in a population each unit having a unique identification number vangying saying from 1 to N

A contingency table: is a classification of all “n” items in a sample on the basis of the level of two cosmord attribute found on each item for instance student may be classified according to level of academic performance.

Observed frequency: In a particular sample a set of possible events E1, E2, E3, ……… E4 are observed to occur with frequencies O1, O2, O3…….. Ok is called observed frequencies

Expected frequency: according to probability virile when the expected value occur with frequencies e1, e2, e3…..ek are called expected frequency

Pilot survey: A pilot survey otherwise know as pretest is a small-scale trial survey conducted before the actual main survey.

Sample size: Is the sampling distribution of many statistics which are approximately normal the approximation becoming better with increasing N, 1.e N >30 and also when sampling distribution of small statistics has become approximately normal, the approximation become worse with decreasing N. 1. e N>30

 

 

 

CHAPTER TWO

 

LITERATURE REVIEW

One might ask how handout got itself involved in the learning and academic pursuit of student in various tertiary institution of learning. Well, if not for a critical examination of the falling standard of education in Nigeria (student not living up-to expectation after graduating from higher institution of learning) so as to create confidence and reliability again in our educational system.

Handouts defined by oxford English Dictionary is a prepared statement giving by politician to news paper men, leaflet etc distributed free. So in this verification, handouts are supposed to be free gift from lecturer to student as to aid better leaving and understanding.

James Hastily expression that “it is a common practices in universities” teaching for lecturers to provide lecture handout to accompany their verbal exposition these handout varies in function and design-some such teaching aids are common there is as far as we can discover, little on their we and their effects and virtually no research no their design. He also stated that the little research that has been done show

  • That student gets higher test score from lecturers accompanied by handout than from lecturers without them.
  • The student appreciate handout
  • That the design of the handout markedly affect students note taking practices.

Offorbuike Samuel Arinze in his project work (1990) stated that handout is a type- written material prepared by the lectures of I.M.T covering part of (or all) the course content for a particular class for the semester which the lecturer normally use for lecturing. The student in place of the lecture note. In his survey, he also discovered that about 4.43% of the variation in the proportion of student’s preference for type of student material (Handout, lecture notes textbook) may be attributed to difference in ages of students and that 42% of age group 15.19 year prefer handout as against 15% of the age group 30 years and above who manifest similar choice.

In this study also sex was found to have a zero effect or student preference to study material.

Eleyimi, Olufunke B. in her project work (December 1996) state that handout are section or summarized. Writing sold to student by their lecturers to ensure speedy coverage of the syllabus. In her work, she found out that there are significant differences:

  1. In the average amount spent on handouts by students in the different schools.
  2. Lecturers view varied greatly towards the use of handouts.
  3. The ratio of student that have opinion that price of handout is high (0.66) to the overall population compared to those who paid that the price are moderate and low (0.28, and 0.06) respectively.

David Newsle and Robert Cannon in their book, pointed out the abuse of handouts can serve as number of useful purpose in your teaching, but this medium is frequently misused because the material is often simply distributed to student and then quickly forgotten that little though u given to the design and use of handout.

 

Romiszowki A. J in his view pointed on private median and their abuse he said printed material have been and continue to be, the single most common category of teaching material.  So printed materials with continue to be used and abused in instruction.

 

He felt it was abused by the ease with which they are being obtained reproduced and calculated leads to their often excessive or in appropriate use in the instructional process.

This literatures review was not only based on books and past project as:

The federal Radio Co-operation Enugu in her commentary on February 10th, 2005. Said a lot of thing in affirmative in this commentary, it was stated that the “Sales of Handout” to student gained prominence. when it became increasingly difficult to produce the relevant textbooks for the various discipline”. The textbook were either not available locally or were too expensive for  student. Therefore there was justification, in the handing out of these copies of lecture which the students were to pay for.

 

It became evident that lecturer who said handout saw financial profits. They therefore decided to entered the sales of handout just for business intention and not really to help students in their studies. They make sure price that increases and students have to pay for them crying inwardly.

 

Most of the handouts are absolute in content apart from the high cost. This is because most of the handout was student and they make no move to update handouts.

 

Federal Radio Co-operation of Nigeria went further to point out that there is much to this issue of handout than all these said. They laid emphases on the fact that sales of handout encourage intellectual laciness both on the lectures and on the student too. Saying that in some cases, lecturers in most tertiary institutions, insist on student buying handout as a pre-condition to pass their course especially in quizzes sometimes the lectures even have register of student who have paid for their handout and their creates a great panic in the heart of the student.

Frankly speaking such an approach to teaching leads to the production of half-cooked graduate in our various institution of higher learning.

Since the federal ministry of education has new banned the sales of handout in tertiary institution in our country, there have been similes in the face of the students. The enters society is so concerned about the issue of handouts. Recently, the Enugu State Broadcast Station (ESBS) I’m Staves in new broadcast on commentary institution of February in tertiary 10, 2005 dwell on the topic “Handout” Scandal in tertiary institution.

It was noted first in the commentary that handout usually serve as supplement to textbook or as alternative to them.

The Enugu State ministry of information made a vigor’s research on handout scandal and the cause was traced t two reasons:

  • The lack of textbook
  • The irregularity in payment of lecture salaries and as a result of the as collecting cost living in the economy of the country.
  • THE LACK OF TEXTBOOK: It is the utmost desire of every district and thoughtfully student to have textbook on the course he/she is studying in institution of higher learning but it is quit unfortunate that student cannot be able to afford the cost of textbook in the market. So they have no alternative, rather than handout student no longer go for textbooks, instead they go for substitution major which is handout.
  • The irregularity in payment of lecture salaries and as a result of the escalating cost living in the economy of the country: Everyone knows that education has collapsed in Nigeria. That is no longer news. The schools are in shambles. The school system are updated. The state secretary of the Nigeria union of Teacher )NUT) Mr. Jamiu Idris told NAN recently that the protect had become inevitable following the shortfall of salary to the lecture and teachers, most lecturers are neglected and tracematized he can hardly pay his rent. He cannot afford basic medical care when he is sick in a country where minister go abroad to treat common affliction like malaria and that is what important. Some of them to starts selling handout to student

To meet up with these problem, the lecture are confronted with the challenges of continual survival, some compare themselves with fellows in other sectors of the economy, like the out companies workers who are millionaires the investigation carried out show that in most tertiary institution, lecture make sure that their handout are compulsory for student at exorbitant price.

It is quit obvious that the school management have tried to control the production and sales of handout in the school, a lot of communiqué have been issued out repeatedly to the institution of management and technology, Enugu.

In accordance to the above statement (ref:IMT/MM33/Vol. iv) dated new circular ref: IMT/RG/AB/22. at an emergency meeting of the academic bard held on 9th August 2004/2005. The board deliberated and deplored the apparent disregard of it earlier decision on the sales of handouts in this institution.

The academic board later gave a serious warning discouraging the sale of handout in the institution (I.M.T) But in the process where the handout was essential to the student progress then it must be submitted lastly to the head of department for approval and then passed to the registrar for preparation costing and sales for the avoidance of doubt, any of such handout should have few pages.

 

MAJOR RECOMMENDATIONS ON HANDOUT AND TEXTBO0KS ETC BY THE BC FOR ADOPTION BY THE ACADEMIC BOARD

REF: IMT/AB/37/Vol iv/ dated 24 August 2004/2005. Which were on preparation and sales of handout and sales of handout respectively?

The business committee of the academic board in it meeting on 18th and 24th August, 2004/2005 considered the attached paper from the deputy rector and came out with some rules that will be beneficial to the institute. It was stated the price of handout should follow the below conditions

  • All handout must have be clear and readable
  • All handout must have to copies formally deposited with the director, who is turn leaves a copy with the deputy rector.
  • The submission must be handouts in use must be done every semester is is to say that any new handout being used in a semester must go through this process to ensure proper monitoring by the various directors and
  • Handouts are to sell at N2.5 per page not more than 70 pages.

During the orientation of new student. It was made known that handout does not determine student score that lectures were not allow to sell handout because it was being abused some year back.

Nowadays because of the fact that student have no seats and tables. While taking lecture notes and lecture rooms are usually congested, which make it difficult for student to learn when the lecturer is teaching? These coupled with many more reasons brought back the selling of handout to school. Nevertheless no lecture had is a must. The decision to buy or not to buy handout should be made by the student most importantly.

 

Continue reading STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF STUDENT ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE USE OF HANDOUT ( A CASE STUDY OF INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT AND TECHNOLOGY ENUGU)

APPLICATION OF QUALITY CONTROL IN NIGERIA INDUSTRIES (A CASE STUDY OF MICHELIN PORT HARCOUT)

APPLICATION OF QUALITY CONTROL IN NIGERIA INDUSTRIES

(A CASE STUDY OF MICHELIN PORT HARCOUrT)

 

 

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ABSTRACT

 

It is generally believed that Nigeria are not satisfied with goods made in their country but are rather attracted to foreign made products.  This state of affair attributed to the poor quality of products.  This study seek to examine the various method used by different manufacturing organizations and also assess the effectiveness of the applications.

To achieve this objectives, a survey of Michelin Nigeria Limited, one of the manufacturing organization in Port Harcourt was undertook.  A review of related literature was also undertaken.  A sample survey techniques was developed and administered to the various Michelin manufactured products.

From the analysis of data collected, it was found that the application of quality management techniques ensure high quality products and that the two Michelin products were under control.

The analysis is such that will construct the statistical quality control chart for the products, the production process should continue.

It also recommend the maintenance of the machine should be encouraged by the management of every department rather than allowing the machines to go bad before maintenance can be checked.

 

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

 

Title page                                                                                          ii

CHAPTER ONE

Introduction                                                                                                1

  • Background of the study 1
  • Statement of the problem                              7
  • Scope and limitation 0f the study 8
  • Justification of study 10
  • Relevant of study 10
  • Objectives of the study 11

CHAPTER TWO        

  • Review of literature 12
  • Responsibility for quality 14
  • Customer responsibility 16
  • Supplier responsibility 16
  • The manufacturer 17
  • Policies of quality 17
  • Motivation for quality 20
  • Quality circle 22
  • Inspection 23
  • Where to inspect 24
  • How to inspect 25
  • Acceptance sampling 26
  • Attributes sampling plan 28
  • Variable sampling plan 29

CHAPTER THREE

Research methodology                                                                      30

  • Source of data 30
  • Population of study 31
  • Sampling procedure 31
  • Systematic random sampling 32
  • Data collection instrument 32
  • Data analysis technique 33
  • Presentation data 35
  • Definition of terms 36

CHAPTER FOUR:      

Presentation and analysis of data                                                     37

  • Introduction 37
  • Examination of research sample data 38
  • General analysis of sample data 38

CHAPTER FIVE

Findings recommendations and conclusion                                                45

  • Introduction 45
  • Findings 45
  • Conclusions 46
  • Recommendation 47

References                                                                               49

 

 


CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1     BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

          In the production of goods and services, statistics is applied in the analysis and control of quality.  Most manufacturing firms in a bid to attain their primary objectives which include survival, efficiency and profitability, large market share etc, establishes quality control laboratories where the quality control officers are charged with the responsibility of advising the production department as well as the management on the current quality presents the products.

 

Since the task of control is to plan, organize and manage the use of available resources to accomplish specified, long-term goals.  It then follows that there exist the need for management to make quality decision that will enhance the attainment of these goals.

 

Quality is the concept which concerns how well and low long a product or service meets customers requirement, in these respect, the assessment of the customers is the most reliable indicator of product quality.

 

Quality costs money.  Wide (1980) says that with sufficient expenditure any product can be endured with high quality.  Quality goods and services are expected to be produced at a minimum cost so as to attract customers by non-exorbitant cost.  Manufacturers are thus not faced with the problem of producing them at a low cost.  There challenges have also been a intensified by the advances in technology changes in customers tastes and then stiff competition in the market place.

 

Competitions is continually intoning, the customer is having more knowledge about the goods he buys.  This has been greatly encouraged by different organization. Government policy on prices and incomes have sort of enlightened the customers more or how to spend his money.

Okwu Anyia (2005) says that statistics deals with figures 9including real and integer – valued quantities) the decision is friendly with statistical approach to the solution of most management, (quality management) and other related problems.  To this end, statistics involves the following.

  1. Collection of data in figures
  2. Organisation and presentation of data
  3. Analysis of the data
  4. Interpretation of the results (of the data); Analysis
  5. Drawing conclusions on the results (or finding);
  6. Making recommendations on the results and
  7. Safety of the results conclusions and recommendations for immediate and future use.

Quality control and management in an organization should be a functional management discipline, responsible for defining and implementing developed programmes for quality improvement.  These programmes range from training new employees to inspecting current products and services, conducting quality, improvement, performing design review and assisting the finance department in calculating the cost of quality.

Woof E. (1986) defines an audit as a process whereby the accounts of business entities, including limited companies, trusts and professional firms, are subjected to scouting in such details as will enable the auditor form an opinion as to their accurancy, trust and fairness.  The application of statistical tool helps the auditor in arriving at t his opinion.

Quality management and control is also concerned with the establishments of standard on inputs and outputs.  The pre-requisites to effective and efficient quality control are freedom from deficiency and minimum cost.  These express management standard and attitude that non-conformance is not acceptable in order to reduce running cost.  These cost include repair, rework, waste, replacement, warranty and the cost of detailed inspection.  All these are expensive manufacturing problems that should not only be detected and resolved at the earliest time but if possible prevented.

Furthermore, to the established standard tolerance limits are set for every important quality.  Variable these tolerance are limits of variation beyond which the variable will not be accepted it most satisfy the requirement customers will impose on the finished goods (products) because the organization must determine what qualities are needed by the users.

 

Meeting these quality needs by the users is the collective responsibility of all the functions of the organization.  The market research will discover just what the needs are.  Product development will create designs which are responsible to there needs.  Subsequently, the planning decision of the organization will devise process which are capable of executing the product design in conjunction with the production decision which will regulate these processes to achieve the desired quality.

 

These inspection and testing section will prove the adequacy of the product, through stimulated use.  The marketing section will sell the products for the prosper application.  Finally, the customer service must follow the usage to remedy failure and discover opportunities for improvement.

 

All these sub-activities may collectively be seen as the quality function and so, the total management policy on quality is a collective efforts towards achieving a level of quality desired by both the organization and the customers.

 

 

2.1.1  HISTORY OF MICHELIN

          When Edward Michelin came on the scene, factory activity was called “The silent”, one day when a cyclist was visited the factory in search of tyre repair equipment, Edward had the idea that the tyre could really be easier to repair.  This is the beginning of a long story.

 

In 1889, a cyclist from the Auverregne region gets a flat tyre in Clermont Femand; unable to repair his English tyres, which are glued to the wheel rim, he enquires at the Michelin factory, already well known for its rubber products.  Edward Michelin does the repair personally shows work followed by 6 hours drying time.  He also discovers the incredible comfort offered by the pneumatic tyre.  His research leads to the patenting of removable tyre.  In 1894, the first horse draw carriage tyre appears.  In 95, a car “the Elan” was designed, built and equipped with pneumatic tyres by Michelin.

 

In 1898, birth of pudendum, the Michelin man.  He becomes the company’s unmistakable symbol and helps make Michelin known the world over.  In 1990, Michelin Red Guide was produced by Michelin, 1903, the first Michelin was produced while in 1905 the first using Michelin “solid” tyres came in.

 

From 1955 to 1969, Michelin undertook considerable industrial investment by having 15 factories in 15 yrs.  12 factories are built in Europe while 3 factories are built outside Europe in which one of them is in Port Harcourt (Nigeria) and it was invested in 1962.

 

Michelin continued its development, monthly in the Eastern and western countries until in 2000; Alliance with the Gurman group WOCO and creation of WOCO Michelin AVS (Anti Viberation System), specialized at automobile responding to the requirements for innovation and world wide accompanion of manufacturers in the field of suspension and raw holding system.

 

 

 

1.2     STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

          Although the success of every manufacturing organization depend greatly on the degree of its reputation for supplying quality products that will give customers satisfaction in the price range offered yet the realization of quality standard has been the search for a solution to this problem is the concern, which has led to a research of this nature.

 

It thus follows that for Nigerian manufacturing organizations to be successful, they must place great emphasis on the establishment, documentations and maintenance of quality policy of the company.  It requires that every section of production must have its quality related activities well defined documented and maintained.  The personnel responsible for quality function must be conversant with their activities.  In all, quality management system, requires that quality procedure for each section be followed in order to achieve acceptable quality.

 

However, it is now common that Nigeria market are flooded with many products among which are of low standard.  What immediately comes to mind is that these must be problem in the quality system of Nigeria manufacturers. What factors are responsible for this problem and what action must be taken to criminate or reduce their negative impact on the development of the characterized manufacturing section in Nigeria.

 

Today, manufacturing organization in Nigeria which are serious about increasing sale and profitability, have to analyze and understand every aspect of their business in terms of customers needs.  The improvements of the quality of products have become an important necessity in order for manufacturing companies to survive.

Besides, satisfying the needs of customers, planned quality improvement result to higher efficiency and productivity, lower costs and punctuality in delivery, but quality improvement is not something one can just attach to a product.

 

Quality is all embracing.  In order words, every stage of the production of any product from raw materials to the end product as well as the built on services up to the point of delivery has to be taken into consideration with regard to quality improvement.  This brings to focus the concepts of total quality management (TQM), Quality assurance or Quality control.  These concepts must be completely internalized by every segments of any organization before it can became effective.

 

In this study we will be concerned with the examination of the quality management application and techniques (procedures) in Michelin.  Nigeria Limited one of the manufacturing organization in Nigeria and their effectiveness in meeting the quality needs of the customers.

 

1.3     SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

          This research will concerned only the management of quality, its techniques and application within Michelin.  It concerns only products, manufactured in Michelin.

However, because of finance and time constraints materials and information that would have added more light were not realized.   Moreover, a research work of this sort cannot be error force because answers received from employees and company execution during interview might not be hundred percent (100%) correct.  They may be hiding facts as they may be afraid of exposing the company policies and producers.

Lastly, since the saidly is done in the company (Michelin) it is limited to the Michelin locality.

 

1.4     JUSTIFICATION OF STUDY

          This research on quality control will help in the examination of the quality management application in manufacturing organization in Nigeria and their effectiveness in meeting the quality needs of customers, for instance, in the case of Michelin, this study will help to whether its products are below standards and if so, adequate measure may be taken to improve on their quality.

Though the justification is that Michelin tyre has been considered long ago as the best tyre made in Nigeria.  It is also chosen for its proximity, familiarity and cost related consideration.

 

1.5     RELEVANT RESAERCH QUESTION

 

          To accomplish the purpose of this research, the following research questions will be answered to have solution to the problem which will led to the achievement of the objects of the study.

  1. How are quality standard established?
  2. What are the different techniques of quality management used in the organization?
  3. Does the current techniques ensure high quality products?
  4. What are the problems faced in the practice of quality management?
  5. What are the prospects of solving the identified problem?

 

1.6     OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

          The following are the objectives of this research

  1. To facilitate management decision making in the form of efficient allocation of resources using quality control techniques.
  2. To construct statistical quality control chart for the products.
  3. To help to know the skills and techniques of quality control in an manufacturing industries
  4. To know whether the industry maintains quality standard.

 

 

 

CHAPTER TWO

 

2.1     REVIEW OF LITERATURE

          Human desire for quality goods and services had always exist since the dawn of history.  In Nworah (1991) primitive man was concerned with quality and he did so as a manufacture, that is, when he manufactured what he used.  He was responsible for carrying out his technological and managerial activities and was able to co-ordinate all these activities, ensuring that he produced item is of a quality acceptable by him.

Karmel and Polasuk (1989) discussed statistical quality control as the quality control as the quality of industrial products which can be measured in various ways but when one concerned with mass produced components, quality can generally be measured by a fairly simple character of the component under consideration.

Thirkettle (1980) discussed quality control as a method of estimating the quality of the whole from the quality of the sanities taken from the whele; the method is based upon the laws of chance.  Also Lawrence (1979) discussed quality control as the means to achieve true reliability.

According to encyclopedia (1996) quality control as a system of inspection analysis and action applied to a manufacturing operation so that by inspecting a small portion of the product currently produced, an estimate of the overall quality of the products currently produced, an estimate of the overall quality of the product can be made to determine what changes must be made in the operation in order to achieve or maintain the required level of quality control of manufacturing operations.

According to Akpenji 1996): It is customer focused performance enhancing tooth which can be applied to any type of organization.  It enhances the diverse element of business ie leadership, strategic planning human resources development management information system, external customer, employees and stakeholders and aligns them to achieve excellent business result/

Duncan (1974) insisted on a long period of training for apprentices and required that these evidence of their ability, such rules were in part, aimed at the maintenance of quality.  In more modern time focus, factory inspection and research, food and drugs activities of operational scientists have all aimed at ensuring the quality output.

 

2.2     RESPONSIBILITY FOR QUALITY

According to Sakee (2004) the survival of every company depends on the income it gets from selling its products and services and the ability to sell is based on fitness for use.  Hence, no single department is responsible for the broad quality function in an organization (Batuboo 200).  All department have a role to play.

According to Furan (1980) deciding what should be a quality objective for a particular company is always a tailor made job.  Since companies differ widely so do their level of performance in the various aspect of quality control.

According to Caplen (1972) the major activities through which fitness for use is achieved is known as the quality function.  It is a company under management responsibility these activities relates to each other in an organization (Ajie 1996).  Management is any organsiation considers quality primarily as a business problem or as a matter of marketability (Akyseiyi 1996).  The needs of the society are met by the goods and services. This goods and services are paid for through purchase prices, taxes, interests. Etc companies comment offering terms.  Also Nwachukwu (1980) said that with superior quality goods and service a company can secure higher share of the market, firmer prices, a higher percentage of successful bids, etc.  quality costs money to built control and pay for failures involved.  More so, higher quality of decegn means higher costs and higher value (Sakee 2000).  Design of goods means a variation in specification for the same functional use.  It could be variations in the life of product appearance, reliability factor of safety inter changeability, features, luxury features case of installation use, maintenance etc.

Quality of a product is a weapon of competition and can take manly forms.  Juran (1980) says that opportunities to exploits quality in competition are many.  He says that for these objectives to be accomplished every department msut participate fully because quality is a team work.  It requires the participation of all major department of the company to choose the design as higher quality design costs more but higher quality of performance usually cost less.

According to Databo (2000) quality control is an effective system of co-ordinating the efforts of various groups. In an organization to enable production to operate at the economic level and allow for full customer satisfaction.

 

2.3     CUSTOMER RESPONSIBILTY

          Great number of problem are cuased by the customer, Crosby (1982) claim that 80% of company’s problem are caused by non conforming purchase goods, also Ishikwa (1985) claim that at least 70% of the blame for this rests on the customers clearly, if the customer designs the products and issue drawing and specification to the supplier, the finished products may not work because of an unsatisfactory designs although argument may still develops over the attribution of responsibility.

 

2.4     SUPPLIER RESPONSIBILITY

          According to Weiss and Gersslion (1989) is a duty to ensure that every product leaving the factory is known to conform to specified requirements, it is more important to ask how is this to be achieved, but is inadequate merely to respond with a statement that supplier should organizer the design.

 

2.5     THE MANUFACTURER

          Bathbo (2000) define a manufacturer as a commercial scale using machinery, example in the manufacturing of tyre, plastic, electronics.   In contrast with industries which do not make products but rather provide services example consultancy.

 

2.6     POLICIES OF QUALITY

          The management sets the quality policies for the organization, always written, easily understood and the made available to everybody in the organization.

All objectives will be in line with the company polices and procedures.  The total management policy on quality is supportive efforts towards achieving a level of quality desired by both, the organization and its customers (David 1981).

According to David (1981), there are two approaches to quality, they are the reactive and the probabtively philosophies.  Top management decides whether it is to adopt a reactive approach to quality management.

Neiss and Gershon (1989), said that in the reactive or detection oriented approach its emphasis is on prevention of faulty work being passed on to subsequent scrap return or rejected products and non repeat business.  Inspection is a reactive tool of quality management.  This can be done only after a manufacturing task has been completed.  It will identify poor workmanships but its of lower quality due to human error it does nothing to prevent it from occurring again but corrective action will be taken to avoid the recurrence side by Weiss and Gershon (1989).  The objectives of this approach is to inspect completed work from part of the process to prevent faulty work from being passed on the neat stage of the process.  It is usually carried out by staff outside the operations.  Function and takes place between process stages or after a sequence of stages to filter out sub-standard work.  This is then either scrapped or reworked to bring it to standard.  Inspection stages are expensive and time consuming.  The preventive oriented approach aims to allocate resources as to make products right at first time or more of the times side by David (1981).  He said that this can be achieved by viewing the quality of both design and conformance in order to identify factors affecting these two quality.  Quality management is then designed around this analysis.

 

 

 

Continue reading APPLICATION OF QUALITY CONTROL IN NIGERIA INDUSTRIES (A CASE STUDY OF MICHELIN PORT HARCOUT)

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY SALES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (A CASE STUDY OF NIGERIAN NATIONAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION, NNPC – ENUGU, FROM 1996 – 2003)

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY SALES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (A CASE STUDY OF NIGERIAN NATIONAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION, NNPC – ENUGU, FROM 1996 – 2003)

 

 

 

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CHAPTER ONE

Introduction                                                                                                1

1.1     Development of oil industry in Nigeria                                   1

1.2     Motivation and Statement of Problem                                              8

1.3     Aims and Objectives of the Study                                           8

1.4     Scope of the study                                                                            9

CHAPTER TWO

Literature Review                                                                              10

CHAPTER THREE

Research Methodology                                                                     17

CHAPTER FOUR

Data presentation and analysis                                                                  34

4.1     Data presentation                                                                    34

CHAPTER FIVE

Summary, conclusion and recommendations                                    49

5.1     Findings                                                                                  49

5.2     Recommendation                                                                     50

Appendix                                                                                51

 

 

 

 

 


CHAPTER ONE

 

INTRODUCTION

1.1     DEVELOPMENT OF OIL INDUSTRY IN NIGERIA

          The search of oil in Nigeria started as early as 1937, but the discovery was not until 1956.  The sole of petroleum products began in December 1957, managed by a consortium of Royal Dutch Shell and British Petroleum BP Now known as Shell Petroleum Development Company SPDC.

G.A, Aga (1993) stated that Nigeria was the second oil producing nation in Africa after Libya and sixth in the world.  In May 1971, the Nigeria National Oil Company was established under the company and Allied matter Act of 1958 as applicable then.  NNOC was the government Agency Mandated by law to engaged in all phases of oil production and sales, NNOC was later in 1977 amalgamated into a full flex ministry of petroleum to form the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which is in partnership with several oil company from different countries operating in Nigeria.  Before October 1965, Nigeria Crude Oil was refined overseas and all the processed oil needs were imported.  The first refinery plant came into operation in 1965 located at Alesa Eleme near Port-Harcourt.  Later Warri and Kaduna Petro-chemical refineries were established in 1978 and 1980 respectively.  Similarly, Pipeline and Products Marketing Company Ltd (PPMC) Enugu Depot was commissioned in 25 August 1975 by the then military Governor of the old Anambra State; colonel D.S. Abubakar.

The last w as the second refinery in Port-Harcourt.  It is however worthy of note that NNPC has several subsidiary company e.g Pipeline and Products Marketing Company PPMC.

 

1.1.1  NIGERIAN NATIONAL PETROLEUM

CORPORATION (ITS ROLE IN SALE OF

PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)

          The NNPC’s role in Oil Industry is so much that it cannot handled it alone.  This is the reason for the establishment of subsidiary company like pipeline and Products Marketing Company Ltd PPMC.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Manages the affairs of the oil industry in Nigeria, while the PPMC under the corporation is in charge of sales of petroleum products.

Government policy on oil matter such sales is been conveyed by the Petroleum Products Price Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) currently headed Alhaji Gbalamosi. NNPC therefore, works in conjuction with PPRA to implement government policy such as prices of petroleum products.  Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation carries out its function as such in both local and international.

 

1.1.2  OIL PRODUCING AND EXPORTING

COUNTRIES (OPEC)

Nigeria became a member of OPEC in 1971 after its establishment in September 1960.  Its oil policies were since in line with other member countries.  For instance, she had reserved for herself the right to acquire participating interest in Agip oil as early a 1966, exercise such an option by acquiring 33.3% in EIF oil in 1971.  By April 1971, Nigeria had established the Nigerian National Oil Company to give effect to the governments desire to participate effectively in strategic industries as expounded in the first National Development Plan (1962 – 1968).  This with production level of about 1.5 million barrel per day in 1971, representing about 3% of the total work oil production and 6 – 7% of the OPEC production.  Currently Nigeria production.  Nigeria had established herself a substantial net exporter of crude oil.  In view of the fiscal policies already taking to be I line with other member countries of OPEC, Nigeria had already fulfilled all the basic requirements of OPEC.  It has also in the mutual interest of the other oil exporting countries that Nigeria should become a member.  In order to add force to the control from the major forien oil companies briefly, the functions of OPEC is to stabilize and control the world oil output and price of crude in the world market.

 

1.1.3  THE OIL GLUT AND NIGERIAN ECONOMIC CRISIS

          The price of crude oil rose from US$0.90 per barrel in 1970 to the peak of $4.00 per barrel in 1980.  This period is generally referred to as the ‘Oil Boom’ in Nigeria.  However, the world economic recession set-in-mid 1981 both the demand and prices of oil fell by 1986 to below US$12.00 per barrel.  Thus, Nigeria’s crisis began in mid 1981.  This crisis was due to structure imbalance caused by the neglect of the agricultural sector, solid mineral.  In 1967/68, mining and oil sector accounted for only 13.5% of the National Revenue while agricultural sector accounted for 55.9%.  Unfortunately since the beginning of oil boom in the early 1970’s agriculture has been on the decline and its consequence has been large – scale.  Importation of food and raw material for use by local industries.  Government dependence on oil as a source of revenue grew from 0.8% in 1958/59 to 13.9% in 1967/68 and 87.23 in 1976/77.

Following the glut in the world oil market, which actually began in 1977, there was a major decline in the oil revenue to 71.46% in 1981 and further to 62.4% in 1983.  However, the main causes of this glut were the entry into the world oil market by the North Sea Oil Produce.  The UK and Norway, they did not only increase the supply of world oil but also reduced their crude oil price to US & 35 per barrel.  This force is that crude oil from Nigeria Libya and Algeria have the price with the North sea oil which led to the mass dissertation of their usual customers.  Also, the result of the high price of world oil during the 1970 demanded for oil fall and alternative sources of energy were explored.  France, for example which was at the one time dependent on oil for the generation of electricity then had up to 60% of her power needs supplied by nuclear power.  By plant began commercial operation in many countries.  Emphasis was given to energy saving investment hence, the demand for crude oil fail in early 1980 and a worldwide economic rececesion set-in in the following year.

Observing sales locally, the utility potential of petroleum products is high considering the population, base in Nigeria.  Over 70% (percent) of about 100 million Nigerian depend petroleum products for daily business unfortunately, however the frequent upward review of t he prices of petroleum products has not augur well           for Nigerian local business environment.  The instability of oil prices has resulted proximate instability of prices.

 

1.1.4  CONTRIBUTION OF OIL TO NIGERIAN

ECONOMY

          The oil industry in an integral part of the Nigeria economy.  It provides among other things, the greater part of foreign exchange earnings and revenue for the country’s development employment opportunities have increased greatly by the oil industry.  It should be noted that the oil industry is capital and equipment intensive, hence it employees relatively small number of perpous.

In regards to manpower training, the petroleum training institute (PTI) in Kalarri, Delta State for training and Promotion of skills needed in various aspect of petroleum technology.  Scholarships have been awarded to many qualified Nigerians for the relevant course in the Nigerian Universities.  Grants have equally been given to universities and polytechnics toward the development of departments that offer courses relevant to oil industry.  Infrastructural development is another area the oil industry has made great contributions.  The building of hospitals and pipe borne water etc are some example of the contributions.

 

1.1.5  NEGATIVE ASPECT OF OIL TO THE

NIGERIAN ECONOMIC

          On industry as can be seen from the above has contributed immensely to the development of the economy.  It is still contributing, but some of its shortcomings cannot be overlooked.

The high emphasis of government on oil has posed a serious neglect of other facet of Nigeria economy.  The fluctuation of oil prices especially at the world market have seriously affected the government in the implementation of her budget.  The idea of Nigeria being a ‘Mono-product economy’ has caused a serious imbalance in the economy resulting in unemployment, oil spillage and environmental pollution in the oil producing areas.  This constitutes a serious problem to mankind and his environment.

 

1.2     MOTIVATION AND STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

          Over the years, the frequent review of prices of petroleum products has gain a space in the heart of Nigerians, and most of the time, the out of stock of produces at depot for sales is also rampat.

In view of the above statement, the project examines total monthly sales of petroleum products in Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation in Enugu State and build a stochastic model for the data obtained.

 

1.3     AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

  1. To determine the stationarity of sales of petroleum products.
  2. To construct an autoregressive model of a suitable order for the process.
  3. To forecast the series for sales in 2004 quarters.
  4. To make recommendation based on the findings of the research.

 

1.4     SCOPE OF STUDY

          The scope of this study covers the monthly sales of petroleum products by Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation for the past eight years (1996 to 2003) and the figures used are in million naira.  STOCHASTIC TIME SERIES MODELS were used as appropriate.

 

 

 

CHAPTER TWO

 

LITERATURE REVIEW

          In view of that fact that it is necessary to up grade standard in other to meet the text of time and improved models on ground.  The researcher is poised to consolidate on the work done by some researchers in the past on related topics.  This chapter therefore, reviews that works of past researchers and their reports as contained in textbooks, Newspapers, Bulletin and Journals on sales of petroleum products in Nigeria.

Prof Jubril Aminu, Hon Minister of Petroleum Resources (1990) sees sales of petroleum products as a function of production since research is abundant.  He emphasis that investment has been low in all OPEC nations in general and Nigeria in particular.  He stress that unless we increase our investment, production would decline and this would adversely affect sales.

Dr. T.M John (1990) in his speech said that “there is too much waste in NNPC, the management style and habits are most wasteful”.  He emphasized that waste abounds in NNPC namely at the plants, in projects and in support services.  He said in NNPC we replace rather than maintain and repair, we buy in excess of our requirement at prices higher than commercial average and from source capabilities lower than commercial standard.

The society’s view is that the general purpose of sales of petroleum products is to add comfort and well being of mankind.  The way of fulfill this purpose is to produce meaningful work for the members of the society as well to produce distribute adequate oil and services to he needs of member of the society.

Unfortunately, government policy of the day seems to be inimical to this concept.  The frequent increases in prices of petroleum product over the year has not address the plight of the masses.  It is however hoped that economic reform program embarked upon by the present administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo will meet the need and yearning of the people

 

TIME SERIES DEFINITION

          A time series is the name given to the values of some statistical variables measured over a uniform set of time points which may represent the historical performance of some economic or business variable.  Examples of time series are total monthly sales receipts in a departmental store, total monthly sales of petroleum products, total monthly production by company, consumption of electricity in kilowatts data on population motor registration.

 

STOCHASTIC MODELS

MOVING AVERAGE PROCESS

As the researcher mentioned earlier:

Yt      =       åt      –        qåt-1

 

The process is an example of a moving average process.  The general expression for such a process is

Yt      =       åt – q1åt-1 – q2åt-2            ……………qqåt – q

Where; q1,            q2,     ………qq are constants this will be referred to as finite moving average process of order q, M(q).

AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESS

          The general Pth order autoregressive is define by

Yt – q1Yt-1 – q2 Yt-2 –                  …………qp Yp-p = åt

Where q1,    q2,          ……………          qq are constants this will be referred to as finite moving average process of order q, M(q),

AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESS

          The general pth order autoregressive is define by

Yt – f1 Yt – 1 – f2 Yt – 2 –                       ……………… fP YP – P+ = åt

Where f1, f2                          ……… fP are constant and the model is denoted AR(P).

STATIONARY AND AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION

Consider the two autocorrelation functions correlogram

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The diagrams above represent typical examples of type of time series.  Considering the stationary time series, the autocorrelation functions drops off as lag K becomes larger.  While the non-stationary time series keeps fluctuating along the horizontal line.

 

 

FORECASTING

          Considering the use of stochastic models in forecasting.  That is, the models in which the random element plays the dominant role in determining the structure of the model in the previous model, the disturbance element åt was simply an added ‘error’, added separately at each time moment to a strictly deterministic function consider the model below

Yt      =       fY4 + 1         +       åt

Where the independent disturbance element åt are identically distributed with zero mean and s2 and f is a parameter.  This type of process is called an Autorepresive process since its form represents a regression of Yt on Yt + 1.

We may rewrite the expression above for one time unit forward as;

Yt-1    =       fYt + 1 +       åt + 1

It can be seen that both Autoregressive and moving average model can be expressed in terms of weighted moving sum (either infinite or finite) of the sequence å.  It may be of help if we margin there model to be formed by a physical process in which the åI value form the input to some mechanism or process and the Yi values the output.  Suppose that when a particular process, there is only a single unit input at time 1 and no further input, then the system response by giving output of 1 at time 1, f, at time 2, f2 at time 3 and so on.  Such sequence is often referred to as impulse respond of the system – Box – Jeakins.  It can be seen that the forecast for the Autoregressive model of order 2 as used by the researcher in this work is given as

Ŷt      =       f1 yt   +       f2 yt – 1.

 

 

 

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