THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC SPENDING ON POVERTY
REDUCTION IN NIGERIA [1980-2011]

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title page – – – – – – – – – – i
Certificate – – – – – – – – – – ii
Acknowledgement – – – – – – – – – iii
Tables of contents – – – – – – – – – iv
Abstract – – – – – – – – – – v
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the study – – – – – – – 1
1.2 Statement of the problem – – – – – – – 4
1.3 Research question – – – – – – – – 4
1.4 Objective of the study – – – – – – – 5
1.5 Research hypotheses – – – – – – – – 5
1.6 Significance of the study – – – – – – – 5
1.7 Scope and limitation of the study – – – – – – 6
CHAPTER TWO
2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW – – – – – – – 8
2.2.1 Theoretical literature – – – – – – – 10
2.2.2 Causes of Poverty – – – – – – – – 10
2.2.3 Poverty situation in Nigeria – – – – – – 11
2.2.4 The effects of poverty in Nigeria – – – – – 13
2.3 Empirical literature – – – – – – – – 15
2.3.1 Approaches to poverty alleviation in Nigeria – – – – 16
2.3.2 Poverty reduction strategies in Nigeria – – – – – 20
2.3.3 Causes of poverty reduction in Nigeria – – – – 25
2.3.4 Achievement of poverty reduction in Nigeria – – – 27
6
CHAPTER THREE
3.0 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY – – – – – 30
3.1 Methodology – – – – – – – – – 30
3.2 Model specification – – – – – – – – 30
3.3 Method of evaluation- – – – – – – – 32
3.3.1 Statistical Test – – – – – – – – 32
3.3.2 Econometric Criteria (Second-Order Test) – – – – 33
3.3.3 Economic A Priori Test – – – – – – – 34
3.4 Source of data – – – – – – – – 34
CHAPTER FOUR
RESULT PRESENTATION, INTERPRETATION AND DISCUSSION
4.1 Result presentation – – – – – – – – – 35
4.2 Result interpretation – – – – – – – – 36
4.2.1 Analysis of the Regression Coefficients – – – – 36
4.2.2 Analysis of the Evaluation Methods – – – – – 37
4.2.2.1 Evaluation Based on Economic Criteria – – – – 37
4.2.2.2 Evaluation Based on Statistical Criteria – – – – 38
4.2.2.3 Evaluation Based on Econometric Criteria – – – – 40
4.3 Hypothesis Testing – – – – – – – 43
Conclusion – – – – – – – – – 43
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION, AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Summary of Findings – – – – – – – 45
5.2 Recommendation – – – – – – – – 46
5.3 Conclusion – – – – – – – – – 48
References – – – – – – – – – 49
Journals – – – – – – – – – 50
Appendix I
7
ABSTRACT
This work was done to analyze the impact of public spending on poverty eradication in Nigeria from (1980-2011). In this research work, multiple regression analysis was used and five variables were used in the empirical analysis. They are government expenditure on agriculture and water resources (AGWR), health (HTH) education (EDU) transportation and communication (TRCM) and Housing and environment. The data used in this research was collected from secondary data obtained from National Bureau of Statistics (2008) (MBS), and CBN statistical bulletin. The major findings shows that government expenditure on health, education and transport and communication are insignificant and a unit increase of government expenditure in these sectors will reduce poverty level. While that of agriculture and water resources, and housing and environment are significant and a unit increase will increase poverty level. Recommendation were proffered based on the findings of this research. That the government at all level should ensure that its expenditure are channeled towards projects that will reduce poverty level in Nigeria.
CHAPTER ONE
8
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Public spending represents the annual expenditure by the federal government to achieve some macro-economic objectives which may include poverty reduction, increase in national productivity and macro-economic stability in the system.
Since the late 1980’s, an increase in public spending has become a major instrument in Nigeria. This was attributed to the following reasons as the major causes of an increase in government expenditure in Nigeria. First is the dominant role of public sector in major economic activities in Nigeria. This could be attributed to several factors among them are oil boom of the early 1970’s, the need for reconstruction of war affected areas after Nigerian civil war in 1970, the industrialization strategy adopted at that time by the federal government (import substitution strategy) and the need to raise gross domestic product (GDP).
On the other hand, the collapse of oil prices in and general mismanagement of the economy in 1980’s brought the issue of poverty eradication in Nigeria. Furthermore, the recent flood disaster in Nigeria has re-awakened the fight against poverty in Nigeria. In the mid 1980s, it was observed that the private sectors were declining in economic activities as measured by aggregate output, industrial production, non oil exports etc. were all showing
9
decreasing signs. Above all, there widespread evidence of massive poverty in the economy despite of the growing public expenditure and fiscal deficit in the economy (library of congress country studies 1980’s).
In 1986, all major socio-economic indicators were showing downwards which brought high rate of unemployment and decreased in purchasing power. Poverty was spending among Nigerians especially the low income earners and economic growth was downward sloping.
Poverty in Nigeria did not become an issue of great concern until after the oil boom when the international oil price crashed and there was an international economic slump. The continuous downward trend in the oil prices in the international market increased the poverty level in Nigeria. The over-dependency on oil revenue and inadequate efforts to mobilize funds from non oil sources led to a serious decline in government revenue. External reserve deteriorated, and cause huge accumulated trade arrears and thereby limiting government effort in provision of basic amenities and social facilities.
Thus the poverty level in Nigeria continues to be on the increased over the past few decades. The 1991 world development report (WDR) showed that Nigeria the most populous country in Africa has a significant number of her population categorized as poor people.
In recognition of the adverse effect of poverty in Nigeria, federal government set up Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) to reduce over
10
dependency on oil and to provide food to all Nigerians. This had been followed by the introduction of other policies such as national FADAMA programs. Furthermore, the federal government made poverty reduction the core objectives of its annual budget and also initiated various policies measures aimed at promoting people’s welfare and reducing poverty in the economy.
Poverty become an issue of global dimension with nations striving either to reduce or outright poverty in there economy. The complexity of the phenomenon and its impacts on national economics has attracted the attention of international organizations and agencies with government in different nations embarking on policies aimed at reducing poverty. Consequently, Nigerian fiscal policies especially as regard expenses in the areas that have positive impact on the well being of the poor, have progressively being on the increase over the years. Recently, the Imo State government took a bold step towards poverty reduction by introducing free education to all the indigenes of the state up to the tertiary level.
Finally, the extent to which government spending have impacted on the well being of the people prompted this study.
11
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
In Nigeria, poverty has been on the increase which can be attributed to inequality existing in the economy such as corruption, macro-economic instability and inconsistency in government policies. In an ordinary framework, poverty is concern with absolute, modulate or relatively standard of living or inability to attain a minimal standard of living. Poverty is found to be at the worst in the rural areas. Which is characterized by malnutrition lack of standard education, low life expectancy and sub-standard housing? In attempt to alleviate these problems, three actors are observed in the literature as being involved in any giving country. Namely; the three ties of government (federal, state and local government), international organizations and nongovernmental

THE IMPACT OF INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT ON THE
ECONOMY OF NIGERIA (1980-2010)

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ABSTRACT
This research work is on the “Impact of Industrial Output on the Economy of Nigeria” between the period of thirty years (30) covered from 1980-2010. Impact of industrial output on the economy of Nigeria is a continuous discussion to every economy especially developing economics which will give rise to economic growth and development of a nation. Secondary data was used on PC Give 8.00 version package to regress the model with GDP as the dependent variable, and industrial output, savings, net foreign capital flow, and inflation as independent variables. The model explain that the influence of industrial output on economic growth is not statistically significant, though the sign obtained from its à priori expectation is positively related to GDP but does not hold strong enough. Savings has a positive relationship and also significant impact on the economy. Inflation has a negative relationship while net foreign capital flow is positively significant on the impact of economic growth. R-squared shows a 76% increase on the GDP. Based on the findings, it is therefore recommended that some policies is to be made in ways to improve the establishment of industries especially the manufacturing industries to encourage industrialisation of the Nigerian economy so as to contribute to the strengthening of economic growth in the nation’s economy. Tax incentives through subsidies and government expenditure relate to increase in output and positive impact on economic growth. Increase in savings will make money available for the economy through high interest rate and income adjustments from the monetary policy.

TABLE OF CONTENT
Title page – – – – – – – – – -i
Approval page – – – – – – – – – -ii
Dedication – – – – – – – – – -iii
Acknowledgement – – – – – – – – -iv
Abstract – – – – – – – – – – -vi
Table of content – – – – – – – – -vii
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of study – – – – – – – -1
1.2 Statement of research problem – – – – – – -3
1.3 Objective of the study – – – – – – – -4
1.4 Statement of research hypothesis – – – – – -4
1.5 Significance of the study – – – – – – -5
1.6 Scope and limitation of the study – – – – – – 5
1.7 Methodology and sources of data – – – – – -5
1.8 Limitation of the study- – – – – – – – -6
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Theoretical literature – – – – – – – -7
2.1.1 Sources of industrial growth and industrial Policies in

Nigeria — – – – – – – – – -10
2.1.2 Characteristics of Nigeria industries – – – – -12
2.1.3 Manufacturing in Nigeria- – – – – – -13
2.1.4 The era of manufacturing in Nigeria – – – – -14
2.1.5 Structure and performance of Nigerian Manufacturing
Sector – – – – – – – – – -16
2.1.6 The roles of manufacturing industries in then Development
Of the Nigerian economy – – – – – – -21
2.1.7 Problems of industrial development in Nigeria – – – -25
2.2. Empirical review – – – – – – – – -28
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.0 Methodology – – – – – – – – -33
3.1 Model specification – – – – – – – -33
3.2 Model Estimation /procedure – – – – – – -35
3.3 Sources of Data- – – – – – – – -37
CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF
REGRESSION RESULT.
4.1 Presentation of result and analysis- – – – – -38
4.1.2 Interpretation of result – – – – – – – -39
4.2 Evaluation of result – – – – – – – -40
4.2.1 Evaluation based on economic a priori expectation- – -40

4.2.2 Evaluation based on statistical criteria – – – – -41
4.2.2.1 Statistical test of significant of parameter estimated
(T-statistics) – – – – – – – – -42
4.2.2.2 Adequacy of regression equation (F-Test) – – – -43
4.2.2.3 Goodness of fit test (R2) – – – – – – -44
4.2.3 Evaluation based on economic criteria – – – – -45
4.2.3.1 Test for auto-correlation – – – – – – -45
4.2.3.2 Test for Heteroscedasticity – – – – – – -46
4.2.3.3 Test for normality – – – – – – – -48
4.2.3.4 Test for multicollinearity – – – – – – -48
4.3 Evaluation research hypothesis – – – – – -50
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, POLICIES
RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION.
5.1 Summary of findings – – – – – – – -51
5.2 Policy recommendation – – – – – – – -52
5.3 Conclusion – – – – – – – – – -53
Bibliography – – – – – – – – -54
Journal – – – – – – – – – -56
Appendices

CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background Of Study
The oil boom of the 1970s made Nigeria neglected its agricultural and light manufacturing bases in favour of an unhealthy dependence on crude oil. In 2000, oil and gas export accounted for more than 98% of export earning and about 83% of federal government revenue. New oil wealth, the concurrent decline of other economic model fuelled massive migration to the cities and led to increasingly wide spread poverty especially in rural areas. A collapse of basic infrastructures and social services since the early 1980s accompanied this trend, (CIA, 2010).
By 2000, Nigeria‟s per capita income had plunged to about one quarter of its mid 1970s high, below the level at independence. Along with the endemic malaise of Nigeria‟s non-oil sector, the economy continues to witness massive growth of „informal sector‟ economic activities estimated by some to be as high as 75% of the total economy. The U.S United State remains Nigeria‟s customer for crude oil accounting for 40% of the country‟s total oil export, Nigeria provides about 10% of overall U.S oil import and ranks as the fifth-largest source for U.S imported oil and ranked 44th worldwide and third in Africa in factor output. (Adeolu B Anyawale,

Nigeria economy is struggling to leverage the country‟s vast wealth in fossil fuels in other to displace the crushing poverty that affects about 57% of its population. Economics refers to the consistence of vast wealth in national resources and extreme poverty in developing countries like Nigeria as a „resource course‟. 80% of Nigeria‟s revenue flow to the government, 16% covers operational cast and the remaining 4% goes to investors. World Bank has estimated that as a result of corruption, 80% of energy revenues, benefit only 1% of the population (Econspapers, hosted by Swedish Business School Orebro University).
Generally, the manufacturing sector which plays a catalytic role in a modern economy has many dynamic benefits crucial for economic transformation is a leading sector in many aspects (Oguma, 1995) says it creates investment capital at a faster rate than any other sector of the economy. Available evidence showed that the share of manufacturing value in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 3.2% in 1960. In 1977, its share of GDP increased to 5.4% and in 1992 grew to 13%. The share of the manufacturing in GDP fell to 6.2 in 1993, while overall manufacturing capacity utilization rate fluctuated downwards to 2.4% in 1998.
In 2003, the manufacturing sector accounted for 4% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Ojo, 1987:256). A country is industrialised when at least one-quarter of this Gross Domestic Product(GDP) is produced in its industrial output arises in the manufacturing section of industrial sectors, and when at
Impact Of Industrial Output On The Economy Of Nigeria (1988-2010)

least one length of its total population is employed in the industrial sectors of the economy. The manufacturing sector is to be dominant in terms of contribution to the Gross Domestic Product of any economy especially that of Nigeria (Auty, 1993).
1.2 Statement Of The Research Problem
The malfunctioning of industrial sector in a country is widely seen as a major handicap improving a country‟s economy and power pushing many governments to encourage or enforce industrialization (Wikipedia, free encyclopaedia). One of the problems bedevilling the Nigeria economy is that of output from its industrial sector of the economy. Admittedly, the decay in the manufacturing sector is the result of diverse factors that conspire to render many industries comatose (ill). The study is therefore necessary to enable a thorough investigation of the problems of the industrial sector especially that of manufacturing industries and various government agencies set up to provide credit facilities to the industrial sector to ensure continual growth of this sector for rapid economic development of this nation. In the light of this exposition, the research work is guided by the following question.

THE IMPACT OF FEMALE LABOUR FORCE ON THE ECONOMIC
GROWTH OF NIGERIA (1980-2010)

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ABSTRACT
A country’s labour force consists of everyone of the working age, typically above the age of seventeen and below the retirement age of sixty- five. They are characterized by those who are actively employed or seeking employment. The focus of this study is to determine the impact of female participation in labour force on the economic growth in Nigeria between the periods of 1980- 2010. The research also seeks to investigate the determinants of female contribution to economic growth in Nigeria. The objective of this study is to determine the relationship between female labour force and economic growth in Nigeria (GDP).The data used was sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics of various years as well as the CBN Statistical Bulletin (volume 21) December, 2010. The ordinary least square method (OLS) was chosen as the estimation tool because of its advantage over other estimation techniques.The major finding was that female labour force employment has a positive impact on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Nigeria economy. Based on the findings, some recommendations of policy and suggestions have been made.
viii
TABLE OF CONTENT
Title Page – – – – – – – – – – -i
Approval Page – – – – – – – – – -ii
Dedication – – – – – – – – – – -iii
Acknowledgement – – – – – – – – -iv
Abstract – – – – – – – – – – -vi
Table of Content — – – – – – – – – -vii
Chapter One
Introduction
1.1 Background of the Study – – – – – – -1
1.2 Statement of the Problem – – – – – – -4
1.3 Objectives of the Study- – – – – – – -6
1.4 Statement of Hypothesis – – – – – – -7
1.5 Relevance of the Study – – – – – – – -7
1.6 Scope of the Study – – – – – – – -8
1.7 Limitations of the Study – – – – – – -8
Chapter Two
Literature Review
ix
2.1 Theoretical Literature – – – – – – – -9
2.2 Empirical Literature – – – – – – – 26
2.3 Economic Analysis of Women’s Contribution To
Economic Growth in Nigeria – – – – – – – 30
2.4 Limitations of the Previous Studies – – – – – 35
Chapter Three
3.1 Methodology – – – – – – – – 36
3.2 Model Specification – – – – – – – – 37
3.2 Methods of Evaluation – – – – – – – 37
3.4 Model Justification — – – – – – – 39
3.5 Data Requirement and Sources – – – – – 40
Chapter Four
Presentation and Analysis of Results
4.1 Presentation of Regression Result – – – – – 41
4.2 Result Interpretation – – — – – – – 41
Chapter Five
Summary, Recommendationsand Conclusion
5.1 Summary – – – – – – – – – 48
5.2 Policy Recommendations – – – – – – 48
5.3 Conclusion – – – – – – – – – 50
Bibliography – – – – – – – – – 51
1
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Gender differentiation and productivity are critical issues that are central to the socio-economic life of any country. Women contribute half or more of the country’s population, but they contribute much less than men towards the value of recorded production both quantitatively in labour force participation and qualitatively in educational achievement and skilled manpower (Olukemi, 2008). The extent to which these phenomena are discussed varies from country to country. While the developed countries have practicallygraduated from endemic problems of gender differentiation, their less developed counterparts are still battling it. A close overview of world economies show that women have often been looked down upon in terms of their ability to contribute to the economic well- being of their families which invariably has some correlation to a nation’s economic growth. The under-utilization of female labour as well has obvious implications for economic welfare and growth. In particular, the participation of women in labour force appears to depend much more on the social environment than is the case for men.
2
In the light of the above, arguments have risen in favour or against women in their roles towards economic growth and development. Traditional African Gender Theory suggests that women are less important such that they are relegated to the upkeep of domestic chores. It is therefore not surprising that the clamors for more birth were and are still being emphasized till date. The theory holds that women should in no way be found rubbing minds with their husbands in family meetings, and community gatherings. Traditionally, women were regarded as homemakers, who oversee and coordinate the affairs and activities at home. Previously, in Africa, women remained at home while their husbands and sons went out to the farm to work. However, women are never idle at home. They are engaged in manual processing of food crops and other farm produce in addition to their housekeeping duties. The neo-classical are in support of this idea as they failed to acknowledge society induced differences between men and women in the face of economic growth. Thus, they remarked that markets clear automatically given pareto efficiency and that what is economically rational at the individual level is also economically rational for the society as a whole.
Despite these extreme views, there exists a clarion call all over the world for increased women participation in the socio- economic development
3
of nations. This is because of the roles that women play in economic growth and development. Danish (2001) notes that women opportunities to contribute to the development of societies need should be improved.Otherwise, economic growth in developing countries will be constraint and the ability to care for the environment in these countries reduced. One of the studies conducted by World Bank in 2003, shows that investments in women yield large social and economic returns, adding that young girls and boys should have the same opportunities to lead full and productive lives.
With the advent of Western education, industrialization and paid employment, men as well as women drifted into the modern sector of the economy. And today, there are visible changes in the perception of women, principally because they have greater opportunities for education than before. It is therefore not in doubt that economically empowered women play veritable role in household decision- making, with greater bargaining power to increase spending on education, health and other areas of family needs. Such women especially the economically sound ones, have better opportunities for entrepreneurship and to earn higher wages

THE RELATIVE IMPACT OF OIL AND NON-OIL EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: 1983-2007

 

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ABSTRACT

The study is made up of two independent models, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Investment respectively. The independent variables Oil export, Non-oil export, Real exchange rate and Inflation rate were modeled to capture their effect on GDP and Investment respectively.

The study employed Log Linear Model. Following the empirical findings in this study, we observed that, Non-oil export have not contributed a lot to economic growth in Nigeria but other indicators exert enough pressure on the strength of the economy, evidence from the result of the first model. Judging from the result of the second model, Oil export proves a negative non significant variable with investment growth in Nigeria.

The study recommends appropriate economic policies, institutional reforms and massive political will for the country to address the issues of dwindling exportation of Non-oil sector and the trap of Dutch Disease associated with oil-dependency.

 

Pages

LIST OF TABLE

Unit Root Test for Stationarity ——————————————- 42

Co-integration Result —————————————————— 45

Modeling Log of Differenced GDP by OLS ————————— 45

Modeling Log of Differenced INV by OLS —————————- 46

Summary of t-statistic test for model 1 ———————————- 50

Summary of t-statistic test for model 2 ———————————- 52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE OF CONTENT

Title page —————————————————————-        i

Approval page ———————————————————-        ii

Dedication ————————————————————–         iii

Acknowledgement —————————————————–         iv

Abstract —————————————————————–          v

List of tables ———————————————————–          vi

Table of content ——————————————————-          vii

CHAPTER ONE

• Introduction ——————————————————- 1

1.1 Background of study ———————————————                    1

1.2 Statement of problem ——————————————–           3

1.3 Objective of the study ——————————————-           5

1.4 Statement of hypothesis —————————————–           5

1.5 Significance of the study —————————————-           6

1.6 Scope and limitations of the study —————————–            6

CHAPTER TWO

2.1 Meaning of oil and non-oil exports —————————-           7

2.2 A brief historical perspective on oil in Nigeria ————–             7

2.3 Oil and economic policies in Nigeria ————————-             10

2.4 The Dutch-Disease ———————————————-            15

2.5 The boom and burst periods in oil sector and policy response —–17

2.6 Macroeconomic policies and structure of Non-oil export in Nigeria-22

2.7 Oil export, Non-oil export and Economic growth in Nigeria ——- 26

Empirical Literature—————————————————-29

CHAPTER THREE

Research methodology——————————————————–35

3.1 Model Specification——————————————————35

3.2 Method of Evaluation—————————————————-37

CHAPTER FOUR

4.1 Data presentation———————————————————41

4.2 Data Analysis ————————————————————44

CHAPTER FIVE

Summary, Conclusion and Recommendation—————————58

5.1 Summary——————————————————————58

5.2 Conclusion—————————————————————-61

5.3 Recommendation———————————————————62

BIBLIOGRAPHY———————————————————66

Appendix

 

CHAPTER ONE

                                  INTRODUCTION

1.1THE BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Oil, a very versatile and flexible, non-reproductive, depleting, natural (hydrocarbon) is a fundamental input into modern economic activity, providing about 50% of the total energy demand in the world. (Anyanwu J.C. et al, 1997)

Petroleum or crude oil is an oily, bituminous liquid consisting of a mixture of many substances, mainly the element of carbon and hydrogen known as hydrocarbons. It also contains very small amounts of non-hydrocarbon elements, chief amongst which are sulphur (about 0.2 to 0.6% in weight), then nitrogen and oxygen. (Anyanwu J.C. et al, 1997)

Non-oil exports comprises of agricultural products, solid mineral, textile, tyre, manpower, etc. it is made up of every other thing we export, except petroleum products. In the decades of the 1960s and 1970s, the Nigeria economy was dominated by agricultural commodity exports. Such commodities include cocoa, groundnut, cotton and palm produce. From the mid 1970s, crude oil became the main export produce of the Nigerian economy. (Anyanwu J.C. et al 1997)

The development of the petroleum (oil) industry in the country began in 1909. It started with exploration activities by the German Bitumen Corporation, but their search for oil seized after the First World War because the Germans started the war and lost in the war. With Nigeria being under British sectorial control, it was only natural that the Germans had to stop their exploration activities.

In 1937, an oil prospecting license was granted to shell D’Arcy Exploration parties. The first commercial discovery of crude oil in Nigeria was made in 1956 by shell at Oloibiri. The company started production and in 1961 the Federal government of Nigeria issued ten oil prospecting licenses on the continental shelf to five companies. Each license covered was subject to the payment of N1 million. With this generous concession full-scale on-shore and off –shore oil exploration began.

Oil was found in commercial quantities at Oloibiri in the Niger delta, further discoveries at Afam and Boma established the country as an oil-producing nation. The Nigerian crude oil is described as a sweet type because of its lightness and its low sulphur content. It was largely sought-after in the international oil market.

The global perception of Nigeria is that of a really blessed oil producing nation, but with a growing poverty index. (Maaji Umar YAKUB, 2008). The problems of low economic performance of Nigeria cannot be attributed solely to instability of earnings from the oil sector, but as a result of failure by government to utilize productively the earnings from the export of crude oil from the mid 1970s to develop other sectors of the economy. Nigeria is among the poorest countries in the world, with the poverty incidence estimated at 54% in 2006. The economy has been substantially unstable, a consequence of the heavy dependence on oil revenue and the volatility in its prices. The oil boom of the 1970s led to the neglect of non-oil tax revenue, expansion of the public sector, and deterioration in financial discipline and accountability. In turn, oil-dependency exposed Nigeria to oil price volatility which threw the country’s public finance into disarray.

This study will examine the relative impact of oil and non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria.

 

• STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Oil is a major source of energy in Nigeria and the world (in general). Oil being the mainstay of the Nigerian economy plays a role, vital role in shaping the economy and political destiny of the country. It was towards the end of the Nigerian civil war (1967-1970) that the oil industry began to play a prominent role on the economic life of the country.

Non-oil product on the other hand plays an important role in the economic growth and development of the country. Non-oil exports, especially agricultural product like groundnut, palm oil, cotton, natural rubber, coffee, gum Arabic, sesame seed, etc. was our main stay before the period of the oil boom. It was during that period (that is, period of oil boom) that Nigerians neglected non-oil exports to an extent.

Nigeria can be categorized as a country that is primarily rural, that is, it depends on primary product export (especially, oil product). Since the attainment of independence in 1960 it has experienced ethnic, regional and religious tensions, magnified by significant disparities in economic, educational and environmental development in the south and in the north. This could be partly attributed to the major discovery of oil in the country which affects and is affected by economic and

THE PERFORMANCE OF MONETARY POLICY IN THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY (1980-2010)

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TABLE OF CONTENT
Certification ———————————————————————— i
Acknowledgement —————————————————————-ii
Dedication ————————————————————————–iii
Abstract —————————————————————————–iv
CHAPTER ONE
1.1 Introduction —————————————————————-1
1.2 Background of the study ————————————————-1
1.3 Statement of the problem ———————————————–7
1.4 Objectives of the study —————————————————8
1.5 Statement of hypothesis ————————————————-9
1.6 Scope and limitations of the study ————————————-9
1.7 Significance of the study ————————————————-9
CHAPTER TWO
2.0 Literature review ————————————————————11
2.0.1 Conceptual definition of monetary policy —————————–11
2.0.2 Evolution of the monetary policy framework in Nigeria ————12
2.0.3 Review of the monetary policy before the Structural
Adjustment Programme (SAP) ————————————————–16
2.1 Theoretical literature review ———————————————19
2.1.1 Monetary policy under the Structural Adjustment
Programme (SAP) —————————————————————–19
2.1.2 Nigeria monetary policy experience ————————————-23
2.2 Empirical literature review ———————————————–28
2.2.1. Framework of monetary policy in targeting inflation —————28
2. 2.2 An appraisal of the performance of monetary policy in Nigeria –30
2.2.3 Suggestion for dealing with inflation in Nigeria ———————–33
CHAPTER THREE
3.0 Research methodology ——————————————————-37
3.1 Model specification ———————————————————–37
3.2 Method of evaluation ——————————————————–39
3.2.1Unit root test —————————————————————–39
3.2.2Presentation of co-integration and error corrections —————-40
3.2.3 Diagnostic tests ————————————————————–40
3.3 Justification of the model —————————————————-40
3.4 Research approach ———————————————————–41
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0 Presentation of data and discussion of results ————————–42
4.1 Presentation of data ———————————————————-42
4.1.1 Unit Root Test —————————————————————-42
4.1.2 Co-integration Test ———————————————————-45
4.2 Economic Opinion, Interpretation/Appriori Criteria ——————–48
4.3 Statistical Criteria of the Results ———————————————48
4.3.1 T-test —————————————————————————-48
4.3.2 F-test —————————————————————————-49
4.4 Economic Criteria —————————————————————50
4.4.1 Test for Autocorrelation —————————————————–50
4.4.2 Normality test ——————————————————————51
4.4.3 Test for multicollinearity —————————————————–52
CHAPTER FIVE
Summary ——————————————————————————-55
Conclusion ——————————————————————————58
Recommendations ——————————————————————–59
Bibliography —————————————————————————-61

ABSTRACT
The purpose of this project work is based on the relative performance of monetary policy in the Nigerian economy. This work discussed the meaning of monetary policy is as combination of measures designed to regulate the value, supply and cost of money in an economy in consonance with the expected value of economies activities. The study shows further, the aims and objectives of monetary policy which includes price stability, maintenance of balance of payment equilibrium, promotion of employment, tackling inflation, output growth and sustainable development. The literature review shed more light on conceptual and evolutionary framework of monetary policy in Nigeria, review of monetary policy before and offer the structural adjustment programme (SAP), and appraisal of the performance of monetary policy in Nigeria were thoroughly discussed. also appropriate measures for managing inflation in the economy were also suggested from the research instruments and techniques, if was observed that there are leakages in velocity of money through corrupt practices in the system and diabolic means of creating cash flow which causes inflation, multiplicity of unemployment and low output growth. The research work, also showed the interplay between the gross domestic product (GDP) and other monetary policy variables (real exchange rate, real interest rate, money supply and liquidity ratio), and their respective contribution to the economy. In conclusion this project suggests total means of curling corruption using the various law enforcements in the country.
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
For most economies, the objectives of monetary policy include price stability, maintenance of balance of payments equilibrium, promotion of employment and output growth, sustainable development. These objectives are necessary for the attainment of internal and external balance, and the promotion of long run economic growth. The importance of price stability derives from the harmful effect of price volatility which undermines the objectives. This is indeed a general consensus that domestic price fluctuations undermines the role of monetary values as a store of value, and frustrate investments and growth.
Ajayi and Ojo (1981) and fisher (1993), empirical states on inflation, growth and productivity have confirmed the long run inverse relationship between inflation and growth. When decomposed into its components, that is growth due to capital accumulation, productivity growth, and the growth rate of the labour force, the negative association between inflation and growth has been traced to the strong negative relationship between it and capital accumulation as well as productivity growth respectively. The importance of these empirical findings is that stable prices are essential for growth due to capital accumulation, productivity growth, and the growth rate of the labour force, the negative association between inflation and growth has been traced to the strong negative relationship between it and capital accumulation as well as productivity growth
respectively. The importance of these empirical findings is that stable prices are essential for growth. The success of monetary policy depends on the operating economic environment, the institutional framework adopted, and the implementation of monetary policy is the responsibility of the central bank of Nigeria (CBN). The mandates of the CBN as specified by the CBN Act of 1958 include;
 Issuance of legal tender currency.
 Maintaining external reserves to safeguard the international value of the currency.
 Promoting monetary stability and a sound financial system.
 Acting as banker and financial adviser to the federal government.
However, the current monetary policy framework focuses on the maintenance of price stability while the promotion of growth and employment are the secondary goals of monetary policy. The performance of monetary policy depends on some legal framework upon which it operates. The legal framework are quantitative general or indirect and second, qualitative selective or direct. The effect effects the level of aggregate demand through the supply of money, cost of money and availability of credit. Out of the two types of instruments, the first category include bank are variations, open market operation, and required reserve ratio. They are meant to regulate the overall level of credit in the economy through commercial banks. The selective credit control aims at controlling specific types of credit. This includes changing margin requirement and regulation of consumer’s credit (M.L Jhingan, 2003).
In any economy, the conducts of both policies are normally rooted through banking institutions that play in the intermediation process. The role of bringing lenders and borrowers together through this process the central bank plays a very important role in determining the price of money (Ebhodaghe, 1996). Therefore, monetary policy is important in its own right from the past view of monetary economists and policy maker’s interns of its impacts on the economy. Of all tools available to government for directing the cause of the economy, monetary policies have proven to be the most visible instrument for achieving medium term stabilization objectives (CBN guideline 2002). Indeed monetary policy formulation and implementation emerged as a critical government responsibility so that the economy does not go astray. Policies are made not only for their own sake rather for achieving some desired goals over a given period of time.
Generally, the primary objectives of monetary policy is concerned with the application of expansionary monetary policy measures during economic recession and contractionary monetary policy controls money supply because it is believed that its rate of growth has an effect on inflation. The basic aim of monetary policies is not to aggregate themselves but the aggregate in the real sectors of the economy such as, level of capital price stabilization and economic development. Policies are designed in order to change the trend of some monetary variables in particular direction so as to induce the desired behavioral change in the monetary policy. The central bank’s role is to conduct appropriate monetary policy that is consistent with the main economic objectives that will help the growth of gross domestic product (GDP), sustainable inflation are and stable balance of payment position. This is done by putting in place the direct or indirect monetary approach so as to control monetary trends. In this regards the CBN determines the amount
of money to be supplied that is consistent with the nation’s macro-economic objectives and manipulate the monetary instrument at its disposal in order to achieve the stated objectives. Monetary policy influences the macrocosmic objectives because it is believed that there occurs a relationship between the real variables. Monetary policy affects all aspects of our economic and financial decisions whether to buy a car, build a house, start up a business or to expand the existing ones, whether to send one’s child to school or to make the child learn trade. Money supply or monetary policy tries to influence the performance of the economy as reflected in key macro-economic indicators like inflation, GDP and employment. It works by affecting aggregate demand across the economy, that is, individuals’ and firms’ willingness and stability to spend on goods and services. In doing this, monetary policy has two fundamental goals to promote maximum sustainable output and employment and to maintain sustainable price level in the economy. The job of stabilizing output in the short run and promoting price stability in the long run involves several steps first, the central bank tries to estimate how the economy is doing now and how it is likely to do in the medium term, then, it compares this estimates to its goals for the output and the price level, if there is a gap between the estimates and the goals, the CBN have to decide on how forcefully and swiftly to act to close the gap. Estimate of the current economic conditions are not as even as the most up-to-date data on key variables like employment, growth, productivity etc, largely reflect condition in the past. So to get a reasonable estimate of the current and medium term economic conditions, the central bank tries to find out what the most relevant economic developments are such as government spending, economic conditions abroad, financial conditions at home and abroad and the use of new technologies