REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON NATIONAL INCOME (FROM 1998 – 2003) (A CASE OF FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA)

 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title page

Approval page

Dedication

Acknowledgement

Table of contents

CHAPTER ONE

1.0     Introduction

1.2     Statement of problem/motivation

13      Aims and objectives

1.4     Scope of the study

1.5     Significance of the study

1.6     Definition of concepts

CHAPTER TWO

Literature Review

CHAPTER THREE

3.0     Methodology

3.1     Research method: regression

CHAPTER FOUR

Analysis of Data

CHAPTER FIVE

Conclusion

Recommendation

References

 

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

          National income is the sum of the money value of all the commodities and services produced in a country within a particular period of time usually one year.

The question of how an economy grows could come to mind at this juncture.  It the amount of goods and services produced by an economy increases.  If it does not increase yearly, it is not growing, even if it is growing, the rate of growth may not be uniform among years.  Therefore it may not be possible to determine the condition of the economy.

In any case, an economy needs an indicator for measuring economy growth, this indicator is the monetary summation at all the commodities and service produced in an economy within a particular period of time usually a year.

To get national income of a country like Nigeria for instance, we take the list of the goods and services produced in the country during the year, assign values to them and add up.  If we can do this year after year, we shall be able to make comparison of activities of Nigeria year after year.  Then we can decisively determine whether the economy of Nigeria is growing, declining or stagnant.  It is growing if the National income increases year after year, declining, if the National income is decreasing and stagnant it there is no difference in the National Income for years.

In measuring National Income, an indicator called Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used at current price.  It is therefore quite important here to point out the role that prices could play in the measurement of National Income.  Prices of goods and services changes from time to time.  These changes can affect any attempted estimates.  Considerably.  Therefore to get an idea of the real physical change in National Income from year to year, effect of price changes must be removed.

National Income should be measured in real terms and allow for changes in price levels.  For instance whenever the economy experiences inflation, price rises while the quantities of goods and services may remain constant.  Let us say that 2000, the total units of the go0ods and services realized in Nigeria amounted to 50,000 units and also 50,000 units in 2001.  Let us further assume that the average per unit in 2000 was N10.00 while the price in 2001 was N15,000.

Nigeria’s income with GDP as an indicator for 2000 was 50,000 units X N10.00 = N5000,000 Nigeria’s income with GDP as an indicator for 2001 was 50,000 units X N15.00 = N750,000.

If the two figures were presented to a layman as final products of overall estimates for 2000 and 2001, he would be tempted to say that the National income for 2001 was higher than that of 2000.  This is so monetarily but really the income for both year are equal.  The difference in value was due to rise in p rice in 2001 while the quantities of goods and services were the same in both years.

The same thing can be applicable when a country experience deflation or depression.  Therefore in measuring national income for different years using gross domestic product as an indicator effects of price changes must be given the normal due.  In so doing the changes in economy can be determined appropriately.

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM/MOTIVATION

          As a result of poor economic condition in Nigeria relevant information is of great interest to me for investigation if viable economic solution can be revealed.

Nigeria considered as one of the third world countries is been assessed by their income yearly.  It is a simple logic of our living that it country’s income is high with considerable population, the enjoyment of the citizens of that country would be high, while the enjoyment is low with low national income.  It is on this point that I find it very expedient to analyze the national income of Nigeria and make necessary recommendation for the improvement of the economy for the betterment of the citizenry.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

          In view of Nigeria’s economic predicament, the project is aimed at investigating the relationship existing between disposable income, savings and government final expenditure for the purpose of suggesting solutions to our economic problems.

After the regression analysis had been carried out, it will supply solution to the following questions:

1. Is any linear relationship between the variables listed?
2. How reliable is our regression coefficient?
3. Can we predict the future value of dependent variable?
4. How reliable will be our estimate?

SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The study is centre on “National Income, Savings and Government Final Consumption Expenditure Covering the period of six years 1998 – 2003.

The raw data used are collected as primary data by federal office of statistics” publication and Federal Ministry of Finance Publication.  The data are collected as primary data by federal office of statistics and used as secondary data in this project which centered on national Accounts.  Some of these National Accounts Aggregates Include Gross Domestic Product (GDP) final consumption expenditure, exports and imports.

National Accounts data presents the record of economic transaction of the economic in a systematic manner and show the relationship between the various components of the economy.  Economic transaction cover all the activities of an entity (Household, government, firm, financial institution) that are of economic nature (production, consumption distribution, savings and foreign exchange transactions.  These economic transactions of all the entiti8tes and combined together ad presented inform of account.

Data collected for analysis in this study center on:-

1. Appropriation of disposable income as dependent variable.
2. Savings as one of the independent variable
3. Government final consumption expenditure as another independent variable.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

          The study will help to know the status of Nigeria economy.  The knowledge of the status will help to make necessary recommendation in order to revitalize the poor economic condition of the country for the better future.

The study will also create avenue for future research.

DEFINITION OF CONCEPTS

Gross Domestic Product (GDP):      This is the sum of the money value of all locally produced goods and services.  It does not include international transaction.  GDP does not make allowance for depreciation of capital.

Gross National Product (GNP):      This is the total money value of current market prices of all final goods and services produced by the nationals during a specific period.  It includes net income from abroad in respect of the country’s nationals without any consideration for depreciation of capital.

National Domestic Product (NDP): This is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country in a period of time.  It exclude the value of the net earnings and incomes from abroad.  An allowance being made for depreciation of capital.

Net National Product (NNP): This is the monetary value of all goods and services produced within the country during a specific period.  It includes net incomes and earning from abroad and provision being made for the replacement of depreciation of capital.

Disposable Income (DPI):      This is the amount of money per year that private sector are free to spend when depreciation of capital, all taxes, all net profits made by firms but not paid out as divided are added to the disposable and transfer payment subtracted.  We arrive at gross national product.

Net Economic Welfare (NEW):                 This examines those factors not considered when calculating the Gross National Product (GNP).  Such factors include social cost 9pollution) and leisure time the net economic welfare tend to remove the product (GNP).  A nation might have a very high GNP at a very great social cost as pollution, rising crime etc.

Per Capita Income (PCI)        This is the gross domestic product divided by the population of the country.  Per capita income can be calculated once the population and gross domestic product are known.  So that P.C.I = GDP

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

Galton (1886) first used the word “regression” in connection with predicting the mature height of children from the height of their parents.  Galton corrected for the sex difference by multiplying all female height by 1.08, and he used a single predictor variable taken to be the mean of the fathers, height ad corrected mothers height.

After some consideration of data, it becomes apparent that the height of children of parents whose height exceeds average by x inches will themselves, on the average exceed the average by less than x inches.

In other words, the children regress in average sense back to the mean.  By gradual metamorphoses, the term linear regression analysis came to mean the least square prediction scheme and hence the term multiple regression came to mean the general case with a multiple  set of variable V1, V2, V3…… Vp-1 available as predictors.

The history of the method as opposed to that of its common statistical name is quite different.  According to Gauss (1809) he first used the method in 1795 in a different context and under the name “method of least squares’.  Gauss did not publish his claim until 1809 and legendry had independently described the method in 1806.

According to Eisenhart (1963), the method arose as a natural extension of the principle of averaging the results of several observation of the same quality to reduce measurement error.

It is interesting that the basic computational ideas may be traced back to Gauss (1811) who derived them in connection with l east square analysis and illustrate them with the data which he used to identify the orbit of the asteroid pallas from observations over the period 1803 – 1809.

In the exact sciences like astronomy, chemistry and physics, it is possible to formulate laws connecting several quantities e.g density temperature and pressure of a gas, so that anyone of these quantities can be determined (subject to small experimental errors) from the others.  In methodology, production is much less certain, but it is still possible to forecast the weather with considerable success.

In living science like biology and agriculture there are so many unknown factors at work that every different result may be obtained from what appear to be identical causes.

Even here, however, the law of average hold good.  Eg fat men and women tend to have fat children although the association is only partial.

The adult sons of men below average height will on the whole be nearer the average height than their fathers e.g the sons of men 1.6m tall might, on the average, reach about 1.7m.  It was this regression to the normal noticed by Sir Francis Galton in his research on heredity that gave the “regression analysis” to this branch of statistics.

While therefore, the son’s height cannot be deduced from the fathers it is possible knowing the fathers height to make a better forecast of the sons height than simply taking the average of the population.

Narrowing it down to the study, knowing the national income data fro few years and making analysis on them can help to make a better forecast on the future state of the economy.

OBSERVATION OF NIGERIA ECONOMY

We are convincingly aware about the low standard of living in Nigeria because our per capita income is very low.  We must consider how to raise our standard of living which is basically the problem of raiding per-capita income.  Simply all things must be done to see that the GDPs for the possible by increasing the GDP and by controlling the population growth.

Much have been said about population and its attendants.  We only need to adhere that in Nigeria the death rate fall while birth rate, increases, therefore population zooms higher and higher without corresponding increase in the production of goods and services.  Consequently and with this awareness the government should timely encourage family planning schemes.

Nigeria is firmly struggling to increase the GDPs.  This is manifested in the various budgets presented to the nation by her past leaders.  Government is aware of the fact that to increase the GDP means to increase the flow of goods and services to the consumers.  And that this could only be done by the joint effort of increasing the productivity efficiently and increasing the quantities of the factors of production, make the existing factors produce more.

Then increase the labour force and improve their skill by education, bring more of the vacant lands under production and use more capital is to industrialize.  Capital singularly contributes more than nay other that we lack seriously in Nigeria today.

This makes the rate of growth of the economics of Nigeria very low-below 6% which is the UND’s poor Nations growth rates.

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF REPORTED CASES OF ROAD ACCIDENT IN ANAMBRA STATE  (1994 – 2003)

(A CASE STUDY OF FEDERAL ROAD SAFETY COMMISSION AWKA)

 

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TABLE OF CONTENT

Title page

Approval page

Dedication

Acknowledgement

Table of content

CHAPTER ONE

1.0     Introduction

• Statement of problem
• Aims and objectives
• Scope of the study
• Significant of the study

CHAPTER TWO

2.0     Literature review

• Background of FRSC

CHAPTER THREE

3.0     Research methodology

• Collection of data and scope
• Problem encountered during data collection
• Components of time series
• Method of analysis
• Forecasting
• Moving average models
• Thesis for hypothesis
• Complete randomized design (CRD).
• Presentation and preliminary treatment of data

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0     Analysis of data

• Different tables of data

CHAPTER FIVE

5.0     Summary

• Conclusion
• Recommendations

Reference

 

CHAPTER ONE

1.0     INTRODUCTION

Accident is a situation in which someone is injured or something is damaged without anyone intending them to be. Accident may come in any form at any time and place. They occur to any person and even animals irrespective of its size, age, sex or status. One feature about accidents in particular road accidents, is that it often leads to economic loss, permanent disfigure and untimely death.

Road accident is a frequent occurrence in Nigeria and in Anambra State. The rate of road accident on our major highways is believed to be on the increase and the result has always been unpleasant. Road accident has been the major concern of successive government in this country because it involves loss of live and properties. Reckless and careless drivers as well as corrupt traffic policemen who allow these drivers to fly our roads sometimes with worn-oni types have converted our public highways into slaughter zone because of inordinate has for money and material wealth as well as corruption and bibery.

Some of these road accidents can be: (a) PATAL (b) GHASTLY (c) MAJOR (d) MINOR

• PATAL ACCIDENT: This type of accident may result in someone’s death.
• GHASTLY ACCIDENT: This kind of accident makes the victim to be very frightened, upset or shocked. In this type of accident injury can be sustained.
• MAJOR ACCIDENT: This is the form of accident that may have very serious or worrying result. It may be loss of lives through injury.
• MINOR ACCIDENT: This form of accident is small and not serious especially when compared with other forms of accident. Scrape of car paint or a slight damage to the car can be classified as minor accidents.

These road accidents were attributed to the following, causes, bad roads and bridges. In the previous years, road accidents were attributed to bad road and bridges, but today successive government have brought improvement on our roads by building expressways and good bridges. The question now is why are there still so many road accidents?. The newly built roads are in state of disrepair. There are bumps on some of these new roads, some of which are not maintained. The natures of vehicle contribute a lot to road accidents. Some vehicles have family brakes and worn out tyre.

Moreover, excessive speed and negligence of drivers are causes of accidents which should not be forgotten. Improperly overtaking or cutting in causing road accident. Overloading can as well cause accident. Animals not under control can cause accident on our highways. Intoxication, children and adult crossing carelessly can equally cause road accident on our highway. Many families are daily thrown into sudden mourning because they have lost relatives on highways. Effective measures need to be taken to ensure that merely traveling on Nigerian roads is not an almost certain preparation for the graveyard.

The governments at the federal and state levels have on several occasions’ laundered road safety campaign and the police have been in significant change in the rate of road accidents. This cannot be left alone for Institutes; administrative bodies should join hands towards solving this problem of road accident.

Thus, this work is concerned with the statistical analysis of the reported cases of road accidents aimed at identifying the factors influencing road accidents in Nigeria, which may help in finding lasting solution.

• STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

The road accident problem has assumed such proportion in recent years that our highways have virtually turned into slaughter zones. Many illustrious sons and daughter of this state have been untimely snatched away through ghastly motor accidents.

In very many cases especially in the few cities of the state, cars are destroyed, electric poles are damaged and as a result electric cables are broken. At some places along the road, structures are damaged when vehicles accidentally run into them and of course people lose their lives.

It is in view of those during tragedies that careful studies of road accidents need to be made for the state in order to help make useful recommendation of ways of at least reducing the road accidents.

• AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

The aims and objectives of this study are as follows:

• To identify the categories of vehicles which cause the accidents in Anambra state.
• To identify the major causes of wad accidents in Anambra state.
• To determine the trend of road accidents.
• To determine the number of deaths that result per month due to road accidents.
  • SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

Human faults contribute a lot to the incessant road accidents. These faults avoided by the parties concerned, the government and individuals could help quench of accidents on our roads.

This study therefore will go a long way to help in following ways:

• To determine if the trend is increasing or decreasing
• To know the major causes of road accidents.
• To know the actual number of death per month in the state.
• To identify the type of vehicle that causes the greatest accidents in the state.
  • SCOPE OF THE STUDY

This is a study for a period of ten years (1993-2003) and it covers all the major roads in Anambra state. The data for this project was collected from federal road safety commission (FRSC) Awka with the research officer FRSC Awka.

CHAPTER TWO

2.0     LITERATURE REVIEW

Many research works on road accidents have been done in some other parts of the country. Why it was necessary to do literature review is to see the shortcomings of the methodologies apply by the other researchers and to take advantage of it.

Ihezie (1973) studies the causes of road accidents in Enugu province based on the data he collected for the period (19970-1992). He used the method of least square and moving averages as the tool for analysis, and concluded this road accidents in Enugu for the period under study was increasing and followed seasonal pattern.

Anayo (1976), based his own analysis on the data he collected for Bendel state for the period (19972-1975). The multiplicative model of time series analysis was applied to the data. He calculated spearman’s rank correlation co-efficient. Anayo used these methods because the population from which the samples were drawn was not normally distributed. Anayo concluded this road accidents followed seasonal variation and that highway accidents were on the increase in the area as of the period under study.

Dele (1983), studies the causes of road accidents for Oyo state for the period (19976-1982).  Again the multiplicative model of time series and regression were applied to the data. The parametric method for correlation co-efficient was used. Dele tested for normality and found that the population from where the samples were taken or drawn was normally distributed. Dele used least square method to fit in the trend. He also used ratio for moving average to calculate seasonal indices. He concluded that road accidents and death resulting from them are on the increase and that accidents followed a seasonal variation.

Ebele (1986) in the study for old Anambra state road accidents for the period (1980-1985) used time series analysis, Regression analysis and chi-square test for independence. He found the trend that road accidents in the area followed seasonal variation.

Anthony (1992) did similar analysis for Oshimli local government area of Delta for the period (1982-199). The multiplicative model of time series and regression analysis were applied to the data. He concluded that accidents are on the increase and that excessive speed and improper overtaking on the part of the driver were the major causes of road accidents in the area as of the period under study.

Okechukwu (1994) did the similar analysis for Anambra state for the period (1984-1993) the used chi-square in testing for normality and concluded that data on deaths are normally distributed. Again he used correlation analysis to test whether accidents and deaths resulting in Anambra state are positively correlated and concluded that they are positively correlated. The equally tested for linearity using time series analysis and concluded that time and accidents are linearly related.

Iynette Show and Herbert Sichel (196) “Man is the streets definitely subscribes to the idea that certain people are for more lively to have accident than others and more emphatic on subject of road accident. He will laugh at yon if you suggest that accident (expect perhaps his own) is a matter of chance and there is no great disparity between one driver and the other. This led to the believe that certain people are indeed more likely to have accident than others, and that these people will be incapacitated in the process”

Mctarland (1962), stressed that it gad not been convincingly demonstrated that on appreciate number of people tend to have more accidents than others under conditions of equal exposure.

Mr. Etaghene (Nigeria tribune, March 13 1985 page 3) revealed that Nigeria had the highest number of road accidents in the worked, according to federal ministry of transport sources.

The said that police statistics for the year revealed that there thirty two thousand one hundred and nine (32,109) road accidents in which ten thousand, four hundred and sixty two (10,462) deaths were recorded while twenty six thousand eight hundred. In addition to loss of property, damages medical expenses and others unmentioned. He stressed that poor maintenance of high way’s and narrow roads cause accident.

Mr. Etaghene also emphasized this air road deserve better road signs. The fall that there are strangers on our reads is not taken organisatance of giving more often than not, requiring split second decision and any error of indecision contd lead to fatal consequences.

1. A Epicson (196) asserted that the ability to make decision in traffic which is truth quick and accurate is something that should be cultivated during training. A decision may be worse than useless if it is unduty delayed. Fatal accidents n the road are infact more frequent than milder accidents. The degrees of vigilance exercised by a drive on the road should be adjusted to the needs of the moment.

Furthermore, it is not the during test that should be of paramount consideration but the training if the training is sound the test is a formality on the hand, no test can compensate for inferior training. Stephen Black (196), suggested that although people consciously approve safety measures, they take very different attitude unconsciously and may even enjoy seeing accidents. Life for most people is boring.

Ernest Marple (1959) declared that everybody on the road should drive as if the other chaps were a complete fool since there is no way of knowing who is a foolish driver, the best is to act as if the other drive belongs to the category of foolish once. This will entail large margins of safety clearance, wide berths and so forth.

John Cohen (1971), stressed that people that are alleged to the excessive vulnerable are people suffering from heart disease or epilepsy who may suddenly collapse at the wheel. All dent from these cases are relatively rare, perhaps one in a thousand according to a recent investigation.

John Cohen and Barbara authors of “causes and prevention of road accident” pointed out that the number of people killed or injured on road in 1965 was so percent greater than in 1955. They maintained that except for pedestrians the casualty rales for each class of road user has increased since 1955. In other words, for each class of road users sensualities are growing faster than the traffic.

They went further “if we had the will we should find ways, for we cannot assume that the problems of road safety are beyond the wit of man to solve once they are identified. We do not sufficiently moved by disaster on the road”.

John Chen maintained that to measure each driver’s skill on performance he was required not merely say what he though he could do, but actually what he did. It has been taken for granted that safe driver is the conformist the continues person or one million by range.

Schubert and Spoorer (1967) wrote on the subject of education of driver. “A multiple offender is defined as a person receiving three or more penalties for road offences over two years, each offence being registered at the central traffic and able reported to the local traffic authority”.

BACKGROUND OF (FRSC) FEDERAL ROAD SAFETY COMMISSION.

The development of high way code and the design of it. FRSC was see up or established with decree 45 of Feb 1988, signifies the honest intension of the federal government in road safety matter and accident prevention matter.

In order to create and enabling environment, for the enforcement of this traffic regulation. FRSC adopt a strategy which favors aggressive public education and road safety awardees campaign.  In 1989, the revised highway code was created, therefore which marks another dimension in the effects of the federal road safety commission at property growing Nigerian motorize. The high code was revised in order to meet up with the several technical transformations which both the vehicle and the road have gone through as a result of modernization.

The federal military government inaugurated a FRC corps in Feb 1988, the intension was a directive by the federal military government to the FRC corps to build more scientifically on the successes of its predecessor. This revised Highway Code which is one the fundamental instrument in the intendments of these goals. That was why Prof. Wole Shyinka, the founder of FRC and then chairman FRC  made a comments “our sense of mission today continues unabated rooted in the conviction that every man, woman and child in this nation has a right to life and to a life in which all his/her faculty are in tight” Not a right to life as an affiliated by a visue or oral handicap, not as patdud work.

The result of multiple skin graft after third degree burns in a high way infenior not worst of all as a mere vegetable in a weal share, hearing without the ability to respond, impervons to sensation which you and I were accept as norms of mindful existence, becoming in its own harrowing, dimension, part of the ever weading of  wested human resources or to use an expression with wish we must be familiar yet another fragic view of “the wested generation” The content of the revised high code have being design towards the fulfilment of this mandate and it is the responsibility of every road user to this country to master their lesson and to observe them strictly.

Before the inception of FRC, road safety campaign have proof beneficial, therefore it is imperative that people should understand how to drive safely.

Prof. Wole Shoyinka and the first Chief executive Dr Olu Agunnoye design the basic assignment of commission now cause and stated in the degree;

1. The prevention of road accident.
2. The reduction of high rate of accident figures as were obtain from unoted nation of 1948
3. Clearning obstructions on any part of the highway which may constitute or may lead to accident.
4. Educating drivers, motorists and other member of the public generally on the proper use of the highways.
5. Given prompt and care to victims of accidents
6. They conduct researchers into causes of accidents and method of preventing and putting into use the result of such researchers.

Majority of our drivers in the country are illiterates and this has contributed a lot to road accidents. the commission believes that there should be road signs and literate vehicles drivers are also exacted to be safety conscious every time.

The commission has embarked on public education programme across the nation on road safety. Also the message of the commission is passed to the public through the mass media, seminars, conferences etc or defensive driving techniques. In fact drivers apprehended before the 28^th of March 1989 were only lectured on road signs and defensive driving techniques.

Many drivers, an feeling that he is about to be overtaken by a driver of hanger car, feels insatiable urged to engage in life and death tussle with him. The foolish and reckless tussle is on the ground that a smaller car should keep its place. At time a male driver may feel challenged by a female driver when he must overtake at any price. In same cases, it is just that a car older or newer which had been in rear for a time and then by some stroke of fortime, has jumped in front, All these circumstance the driver falls that his self esteem is threatened, Few mortals can accept on a spirit of magnanimity the dreadful limitation in a stains rider society of being out witted or elbowed out on the road.

Babara preston (1962) highlights much on the external factor that cause road accident. She maintaiins that if a tyre bust, this would normally be considered the cause. The burst may however, have due to traveling too fast for too long or to the driver’s false economy in using worn or remolded types stark made a survey of tyre failures on the motorway and floured that nearly a quarter of all cars on the road had one or more tyres in poor condition and that the risk of a burst on the motorway using remolded tyres was about twenty times the risk of using tubeless tyres.

Isabel Manzies (1975) who studied driver’s attitudes by a group discussion method which she thought facilitates access to emotional factors influencing behaviour found that many drivers consider that road improvement is the main and almost the only, condition for road safety. The congestion and journey time but they many or may not reduce accidents.

Buchannan (1983) commented on the likely increase in cars in the next fifty years and estimated that by the year 2010, there would probably be about 40 million vehicles on the road, 30 million of them private cars. He then wondered how many more roads could be provided to cope with these increases in volume of traffic and concluded that it is impossible o provide adequate roads to contain the volume of traffic.

Communication system on road, judging from what has been said, is a ventable tower of Babel. It though one was living in a multilingual country. You say something to someone in dutch, which does not understand, or as though when you utter the word self, it means sugar to some pepper to others, and vinegar to third. Several specific suggestions have been made for  making more use of the drivers ears. In some English cities, for instance, grooms have been made in the road such that a vehicle passing over the produces a sound.

This is intended as a warning to anyone who exceeds the speed limit. A notice audible warning strip” alerts motorist to the fact that if they travel over the strip above a certain speed there will be a signal.

A very important factor influencing the way a motorist driver is whether he has recently drunk alcohol can impair the shill and judgment necessary for driving long before the driver appears to be in any way drunk.

Nnadede Obioma Emmanuel (1997) recommended that the federal and state government should increase the number of road sign on the high ways as well as the access reads. He maintained that all vehicles made or imported into the country should have a maximum speed limit of 100km/hur. Finally, devices should be installed in all vehicles to help monitor the speed limits.

CHAPTER THREE

 

METHODOLOGY

• COLLECTION OF DATA AND SCOPE

The data used for this research work was collected from “B” department co-operations central police station headquarter Awka and federal road safety commission Awka. The data are limited to the total number of accidents per month, number of persons killed per month, number of accidents by a cause and the number of vehicle involved in accidents.

By the nature of the records, it was not possible to obtain the statistics of people was died later in the hospital as a result of road accidents. It is therefore possible that the number of deaths recorded in far below the actual figure that died from road accidents. This study is for a period of ten years (1994-2003). It covers all the high ways in Anambra state.

• PROBLEM ENCOUNTERED DURING DATA COLLECTION

Some of the problems encountered during the curse of this collection of data include;

• The time wasted in going to the essential places.
• Bureaucracy; This is one of the most demanding problems of data collection. Date collection can be made frustrating to the researchers with imaginary protocols. Going to collect data to police station is not an easy task. You have to pass trough many officers before you get your data. You have to first of all get on introductory letter from your head of department which will introduce you as a student of the department you now write to security command officer I and II through the Sector command office (SCO) who will now ask that the data be release to you. Research statistics officers are officers in charge of researches in Anambra state.
• Inefficiency; The data were not property kept and it is also not orderly arranged this makes the research for the data burdensome and stressful. The work would have been ever if computers were used to store those data or information.

• METHOD OF ANALYSIS

The analytical tool employed in this profit work is solely time series while design analysis are used for visual understanding

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

Time series: Any variable that is measured over time in sequential order is called time series. The objective of this is to analyze time series in order to detect patterns that will enable us to forcast the future value of the time series, and its being measured quarterly.

• COMPONENTS F TIME SERIES

There are four components as described below,

1. Long term trend (T)
2. Cyclical effect (C)
3. Seasonal effect (S)
4. Random variation

Trend (also known as secular trend) is a long term, relatively smooth pattern direction exhibited by a series. Its duration is more than one year.

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