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ABSTRACT

It is generally believed that Nigeria are not satisfied with goods made in their country but are rather attracted to foreign made products. This state of affair attributed to the poor quality of products. This study seek to examine the various method used by different manufacturing organizations and also assess the effectiveness of the applications.

To achieve this objectives, a survey of Michelin Nigeria Limited, one of the manufacturing organization in Port Harcourt was undertook. A review of related literature was also undertaken. A sample survey techniques was developed and administered to the various Michelin manufactured products.

From the analysis of data collected, it was found that the application of quality management techniques ensure high quality products and that the two Michelin products were under control.

The analysis is such that will construct the statistical quality control chart for the products, the production process should continue.

It also recommend the maintenance of the machine should be encouraged by the management of every department rather than allowing the machines to go bad before maintenance can be checked.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title page ii

CHAPTER ONE

Introduction 1

Background of the study 1
Statement of the problem 7
Scope and limitation 0f the study 8
Justification of study 10
Relevant of study 10
Objectives of the study 11

CHAPTER TWO

Review of literature 12
Responsibility for quality 14
Customer responsibility 16
Supplier responsibility 16
The manufacturer 17
Policies of quality 17
Motivation for quality 20
Quality circle 22
Inspection 23
Where to inspect 24
How to inspect 25
Acceptance sampling 26
Attributes sampling plan 28
Variable sampling plan 29

CHAPTER THREE

Research methodology 30

Source of data 30
Population of study 31
Sampling procedure 31
Systematic random sampling 32
Data collection instrument 32
Data analysis technique 33
Presentation data 35
Definition of terms 36

CHAPTER FOUR:

Presentation and analysis of data 37

Introduction 37
Examination of research sample data 38
General analysis of sample data 38

CHAPTER FIVE

Findings recommendations and conclusion 45

Introduction 45
Findings 45
Conclusions 46
Recommendation 47

References 49

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

In the production of goods and services, statistics is applied in the analysis and control of quality. Most manufacturing firms in a bid to attain their primary objectives which include survival, efficiency and profitability, large market share etc, establishes quality control laboratories where the quality control officers are charged with the responsibility of advising the production department as well as the management on the current quality presents the products.

Since the task of control is to plan, organize and manage the use of available resources to accomplish specified, long-term goals. It then follows that there exist the need for management to make quality decision that will enhance the attainment of these goals.

Quality is the concept which concerns how well and low long a product or service meets customers requirement, in these respect, the assessment of the customers is the most reliable indicator of product quality.

Quality costs money. Wide (1980) says that with sufficient expenditure any product can be endured with high quality. Quality goods and services are expected to be produced at a minimum cost so as to attract customers by non-exorbitant cost. Manufacturers are thus not faced with the problem of producing them at a low cost. There challenges have also been a intensified by the advances in technology changes in customers tastes and then stiff competition in the market place.

Competitions is continually intoning, the customer is having more knowledge about the goods he buys. This has been greatly encouraged by different organization. Government policy on prices and incomes have sort of enlightened the customers more or how to spend his money.

Okwu Anyia (2005) says that statistics deals with figures 9including real and integer – valued quantities) the decision is friendly with statistical approach to the solution of most management, (quality management) and other related problems. To this end, statistics involves the following.

Collection of data in figures
Organisation and presentation of data
Analysis of the data
Interpretation of the results (of the data); Analysis
Drawing conclusions on the results (or finding);
Making recommendations on the results and
Safety of the results conclusions and recommendations for immediate and future use.

Quality control and management in an organization should be a functional management discipline, responsible for defining and implementing developed programmes for quality improvement. These programmes range from training new employees to inspecting current products and services, conducting quality, improvement, performing design review and assisting the finance department in calculating the cost of quality.

Woof E. (1986) defines an audit as a process whereby the accounts of business entities, including limited companies, trusts and professional firms, are subjected to scouting in such details as will enable the auditor form an opinion as to their accurancy, trust and fairness. The application of statistical tool helps the auditor in arriving at t his opinion.

Quality management and control is also concerned with the establishments of standard on inputs and outputs. The pre-requisites to effective and efficient quality control are freedom from deficiency and minimum cost. These express management standard and attitude that non-conformance is not acceptable in order to reduce running cost. These cost include repair, rework, waste, replacement, warranty and the cost of detailed inspection. All these are expensive manufacturing problems that should not only be detected and resolved at the earliest time but if possible prevented.

Furthermore, to the established standard tolerance limits are set for every important quality. Variable these tolerance are limits of variation beyond which the variable will not be accepted it most satisfy the requirement customers will impose on the finished goods (products) because the organization must determine what qualities are needed by the users.

Meeting these quality needs by the users is the collective responsibility of all the functions of the organization. The market research will discover just what the needs are. Product development will create designs which are responsible to there needs. Subsequently, the planning decision of the organization will devise process which are capable of executing the product design in conjunction with the production decision which will regulate these processes to achieve the desired quality.

These inspection and testing section will prove the adequacy of the product, through stimulated use. The marketing section will sell the products for the prosper application. Finally, the customer service must follow the usage to remedy failure and discover opportunities for improvement.

All these sub-activities may collectively be seen as the quality function and so, the total management policy on quality is a collective efforts towards achieving a level of quality desired by both the organization and the customers.

2.1.1 HISTORY OF MICHELIN

When Edward Michelin came on the scene, factory activity was called “The silent”, one day when a cyclist was visited the factory in search of tyre repair equipment, Edward had the idea that the tyre could really be easier to repair. This is the beginning of a long story.

In 1889, a cyclist from the Auverregne region gets a flat tyre in Clermont Femand; unable to repair his English tyres, which are glued to the wheel rim, he enquires at the Michelin factory, already well known for its rubber products. Edward Michelin does the repair personally shows work followed by 6 hours drying time. He also discovers the incredible comfort offered by the pneumatic tyre. His research leads to the patenting of removable tyre. In 1894, the first horse draw carriage tyre appears. In 95, a car “the Elan” was designed, built and equipped with pneumatic tyres by Michelin.

In 1898, birth of pudendum, the Michelin man. He becomes the company’s unmistakable symbol and helps make Michelin known the world over. In 1990, Michelin Red Guide was produced by Michelin, 1903, the first Michelin was produced while in 1905 the first using Michelin “solid” tyres came in.

From 1955 to 1969, Michelin undertook considerable industrial investment by having 15 factories in 15 yrs. 12 factories are built in Europe while 3 factories are built outside Europe in which one of them is in Port Harcourt (Nigeria) and it was invested in 1962.

Michelin continued its development, monthly in the Eastern and western countries until in 2000; Alliance with the Gurman group WOCO and creation of WOCO Michelin AVS (Anti Viberation System), specialized at automobile responding to the requirements for innovation and world wide accompanion of manufacturers in the field of suspension and raw holding system.

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Although the success of every manufacturing organization depend greatly on the degree of its reputation for supplying quality products that will give customers satisfaction in the price range offered yet the realization of quality standard has been the search for a solution to this problem is the concern, which has led to a research of this nature.

It thus follows that for Nigerian manufacturing organizations to be successful, they must place great emphasis on the establishment, documentations and maintenance of quality policy of the company. It requires that every section of production must have its quality related activities well defined documented and maintained. The personnel responsible for quality function must be conversant with their activities. In all, quality management system, requires that quality procedure for each section be followed in order to achieve acceptable quality.

However, it is now common that Nigeria market are flooded with many products among which are of low standard. What immediately comes to mind is that these must be problem in the quality system of Nigeria manufacturers. What factors are responsible for this problem and what action must be taken to criminate or reduce their negative impact on the development of the characterized manufacturing section in Nigeria.

Today, manufacturing organization in Nigeria which are serious about increasing sale and profitability, have to analyze and understand every aspect of their business in terms of customers needs. The improvements of the quality of products have become an important necessity in order for manufacturing companies to survive.

Besides, satisfying the needs of customers, planned quality improvement result to higher efficiency and productivity, lower costs and punctuality in delivery, but quality improvement is not something one can just attach to a product.

Quality is all embracing. In order words, every stage of the production of any product from raw materials to the end product as well as the built on services up to the point of delivery has to be taken into consideration with regard to quality improvement. This brings to focus the concepts of total quality management (TQM), Quality assurance or Quality control. These concepts must be completely internalized by every segments of any organization before it can became effective.

In this study we will be concerned with the examination of the quality management application and techniques (procedures) in Michelin. Nigeria Limited one of the manufacturing organization in Nigeria and their effectiveness in meeting the quality needs of the customers.

1.3 SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

This research will concerned only the management of quality, its techniques and application within Michelin. It concerns only products, manufactured in Michelin.

However, because of finance and time constraints materials and information that would have added more light were not realized. Moreover, a research work of this sort cannot be error force because answers received from employees and company execution during interview might not be hundred percent (100%) correct. They may be hiding facts as they may be afraid of exposing the company policies and producers.

Lastly, since the saidly is done in the company (Michelin) it is limited to the Michelin locality.

1.4 JUSTIFICATION OF STUDY

This research on quality control will help in the examination of the quality management application in manufacturing organization in Nigeria and their effectiveness in meeting the quality needs of customers, for instance, in the case of Michelin, this study will help to whether its products are below standards and if so, adequate measure may be taken to improve on their quality.

Though the justification is that Michelin tyre has been considered long ago as the best tyre made in Nigeria. It is also chosen for its proximity, familiarity and cost related consideration.

1.5 RELEVANT RESAERCH QUESTION

To accomplish the purpose of this research, the following research questions will be answered to have solution to the problem which will led to the achievement of the objects of the study.

How are quality standard established?
What are the different techniques of quality management used in the organization?
Does the current techniques ensure high quality products?
What are the problems faced in the practice of quality management?
What are the prospects of solving the identified problem?

1.6 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The following are the objectives of this research

To facilitate management decision making in the form of efficient allocation of resources using quality control techniques.
To construct statistical quality control chart for the products.
To help to know the skills and techniques of quality control in an manufacturing industries
To know whether the industry maintains quality standard.

CHAPTER TWO

2.1 REVIEW OF LITERATURE

Human desire for quality goods and services had always exist since the dawn of history. In Nworah (1991) primitive man was concerned with quality and he did so as a manufacture, that is, when he manufactured what he used. He was responsible for carrying out his technological and managerial activities and was able to co-ordinate all these activities, ensuring that he produced item is of a quality acceptable by him.

Karmel and Polasuk (1989) discussed statistical quality control as the quality control as the quality of industrial products which can be measured in various ways but when one concerned with mass produced components, quality can generally be measured by a fairly simple character of the component under consideration.

Thirkettle (1980) discussed quality control as a method of estimating the quality of the whole from the quality of the sanities taken from the whele; the method is based upon the laws of chance. Also Lawrence (1979) discussed quality control as the means to achieve true reliability.

According to encyclopedia (1996) quality control as a system of inspection analysis and action applied to a manufacturing operation so that by inspecting a small portion of the product currently produced, an estimate of the overall quality of the products currently produced, an estimate of the overall quality of the product can be made to determine what changes must be made in the operation in order to achieve or maintain the required level of quality control of manufacturing operations.

According to Akpenji 1996): It is customer focused performance enhancing tooth which can be applied to any type of organization. It enhances the diverse element of business ie leadership, strategic planning human resources development management information system, external customer, employees and stakeholders and aligns them to achieve excellent business result/

Duncan (1974) insisted on a long period of training for apprentices and required that these evidence of their ability, such rules were in part, aimed at the maintenance of quality. In more modern time focus, factory inspection and research, food and drugs activities of operational scientists have all aimed at ensuring the quality output.

2.2 RESPONSIBILITY FOR QUALITY

According to Sakee (2004) the survival of every company depends on the income it gets from selling its products and services and the ability to sell is based on fitness for use. Hence, no single department is responsible for the broad quality function in an organization (Batuboo 200). All department have a role to play.

According to Furan (1980) deciding what should be a quality objective for a particular company is always a tailor made job. Since companies differ widely so do their level of performance in the various aspect of quality control.

According to Caplen (1972) the major activities through which fitness for use is achieved is known as the quality function. It is a company under management responsibility these activities relates to each other in an organization (Ajie 1996). Management is any organsiation considers quality primarily as a business problem or as a matter of marketability (Akyseiyi 1996). The needs of the society are met by the goods and services. This goods and services are paid for through purchase prices, taxes, interests. Etc companies comment offering terms. Also Nwachukwu (1980) said that with superior quality goods and service a company can secure higher share of the market, firmer prices, a higher percentage of successful bids, etc. quality costs money to built control and pay for failures involved. More so, higher quality of decegn means higher costs and higher value (Sakee 2000). Design of goods means a variation in specification for the same functional use. It could be variations in the life of product appearance, reliability factor of safety inter changeability, features, luxury features case of installation use, maintenance etc.

Quality of a product is a weapon of competition and can take manly forms. Juran (1980) says that opportunities to exploits quality in competition are many. He says that for these objectives to be accomplished every department msut participate fully because quality is a team work. It requires the participation of all major department of the company to choose the design as higher quality design costs more but higher quality of performance usually cost less.

According to Databo (2000) quality control is an effective system of co-ordinating the efforts of various groups. In an organization to enable production to operate at the economic level and allow for full customer satisfaction.

2.3 CUSTOMER RESPONSIBILTY

Great number of problem are cuased by the customer, Crosby (1982) claim that 80% of company’s problem are caused by non conforming purchase goods, also Ishikwa (1985) claim that at least 70% of the blame for this rests on the customers clearly, if the customer designs the products and issue drawing and specification to the supplier, the finished products may not work because of an unsatisfactory designs although argument may still develops over the attribution of responsibility.

2.4 SUPPLIER RESPONSIBILITY

According to Weiss and Gersslion (1989) is a duty to ensure that every product leaving the factory is known to conform to specified requirements, it is more important to ask how is this to be achieved, but is inadequate merely to respond with a statement that supplier should organizer the design.

2.5 THE MANUFACTURER

Bathbo (2000) define a manufacturer as a commercial scale using machinery, example in the manufacturing of tyre, plastic, electronics. In contrast with industries which do not make products but rather provide services example consultancy.

2.6 POLICIES OF QUALITY

The management sets the quality policies for the organization, always written, easily understood and the made available to everybody in the organization.

All objectives will be in line with the company polices and procedures. The total management policy on quality is supportive efforts towards achieving a level of quality desired by both, the organization and its customers (David 1981).

According to David (1981), there are two approaches to quality, they are the reactive and the probabtively philosophies. Top management decides whether it is to adopt a reactive approach to quality management.

Neiss and Gershon (1989), said that in the reactive or detection oriented approach its emphasis is on prevention of faulty work being passed on to subsequent scrap return or rejected products and non repeat business. Inspection is a reactive tool of quality management. This can be done only after a manufacturing task has been completed. It will identify poor workmanships but its of lower quality due to human error it does nothing to prevent it from occurring again but corrective action will be taken to avoid the recurrence side by Weiss and Gershon (1989). The objectives of this approach is to inspect completed work from part of the process to prevent faulty work from being passed on the neat stage of the process. It is usually carried out by staff outside the operations. Function and takes place between process stages or after a sequence of stages to filter out sub-standard work. This is then either scrapped or reworked to bring it to standard. Inspection stages are expensive and time consuming. The preventive oriented approach aims to allocate resources as to make products right at first time or more of the times side by David (1981). He said that this can be achieved by viewing the quality of both design and conformance in order to identify factors affecting these two quality. Quality management is then designed around this analysis.

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY SALES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (A CASE STUDY OF NIGERIAN NATIONAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION, NNPC – ENUGU, FROM 1996 – 2003)

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY SALES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (A CASE STUDY OF NIGERIAN NATIONAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION, NNPC – ENUGU, FROM 1996 – 2003)

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CHAPTER ONE

Introduction 1

1.1 Development of oil industry in Nigeria 1

1.2 Motivation and Statement of Problem 8

1.3 Aims and Objectives of the Study 8

1.4 Scope of the study 9

CHAPTER TWO

Literature Review 10

CHAPTER THREE

Research Methodology 17

CHAPTER FOUR

Data presentation and analysis 34

4.1 Data presentation 34

CHAPTER FIVE

Summary, conclusion and recommendations 49

5.1 Findings 49

5.2 Recommendation 50

Appendix 51

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 DEVELOPMENT OF OIL INDUSTRY IN NIGERIA

The search of oil in Nigeria started as early as 1937, but the discovery was not until 1956. The sole of petroleum products began in December 1957, managed by a consortium of Royal Dutch Shell and British Petroleum BP Now known as Shell Petroleum Development Company SPDC.

G.A, Aga (1993) stated that Nigeria was the second oil producing nation in Africa after Libya and sixth in the world. In May 1971, the Nigeria National Oil Company was established under the company and Allied matter Act of 1958 as applicable then. NNOC was the government Agency Mandated by law to engaged in all phases of oil production and sales, NNOC was later in 1977 amalgamated into a full flex ministry of petroleum to form the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which is in partnership with several oil company from different countries operating in Nigeria. Before October 1965, Nigeria Crude Oil was refined overseas and all the processed oil needs were imported. The first refinery plant came into operation in 1965 located at Alesa Eleme near Port-Harcourt. Later Warri and Kaduna Petro-chemical refineries were established in 1978 and 1980 respectively. Similarly, Pipeline and Products Marketing Company Ltd (PPMC) Enugu Depot was commissioned in 25 August 1975 by the then military Governor of the old Anambra State; colonel D.S. Abubakar.

The last w as the second refinery in Port-Harcourt. It is however worthy of note that NNPC has several subsidiary company e.g Pipeline and Products Marketing Company PPMC.

1.1.1 NIGERIAN NATIONAL PETROLEUM

CORPORATION (ITS ROLE IN SALE OF

PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)

The NNPC’s role in Oil Industry is so much that it cannot handled it alone. This is the reason for the establishment of subsidiary company like pipeline and Products Marketing Company Ltd PPMC.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Manages the affairs of the oil industry in Nigeria, while the PPMC under the corporation is in charge of sales of petroleum products.

Government policy on oil matter such sales is been conveyed by the Petroleum Products Price Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) currently headed Alhaji Gbalamosi. NNPC therefore, works in conjuction with PPRA to implement government policy such as prices of petroleum products. Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation carries out its function as such in both local and international.

1.1.2 OIL PRODUCING AND EXPORTING

COUNTRIES (OPEC)

Nigeria became a member of OPEC in 1971 after its establishment in September 1960. Its oil policies were since in line with other member countries. For instance, she had reserved for herself the right to acquire participating interest in Agip oil as early a 1966, exercise such an option by acquiring 33.3% in EIF oil in 1971. By April 1971, Nigeria had established the Nigerian National Oil Company to give effect to the governments desire to participate effectively in strategic industries as expounded in the first National Development Plan (1962 – 1968). This with production level of about 1.5 million barrel per day in 1971, representing about 3% of the total work oil production and 6 – 7% of the OPEC production. Currently Nigeria production. Nigeria had established herself a substantial net exporter of crude oil. In view of the fiscal policies already taking to be I line with other member countries of OPEC, Nigeria had already fulfilled all the basic requirements of OPEC. It has also in the mutual interest of the other oil exporting countries that Nigeria should become a member. In order to add force to the control from the major forien oil companies briefly, the functions of OPEC is to stabilize and control the world oil output and price of crude in the world market.

1.1.3 THE OIL GLUT AND NIGERIAN ECONOMIC CRISIS

The price of crude oil rose from US$0.90 per barrel in 1970 to the peak of $4.00 per barrel in 1980. This period is generally referred to as the ‘Oil Boom’ in Nigeria. However, the world economic recession set-in-mid 1981 both the demand and prices of oil fell by 1986 to below US$12.00 per barrel. Thus, Nigeria’s crisis began in mid 1981. This crisis was due to structure imbalance caused by the neglect of the agricultural sector, solid mineral. In 1967/68, mining and oil sector accounted for only 13.5% of the National Revenue while agricultural sector accounted for 55.9%. Unfortunately since the beginning of oil boom in the early 1970’s agriculture has been on the decline and its consequence has been large – scale. Importation of food and raw material for use by local industries. Government dependence on oil as a source of revenue grew from 0.8% in 1958/59 to 13.9% in 1967/68 and 87.23 in 1976/77.

Following the glut in the world oil market, which actually began in 1977, there was a major decline in the oil revenue to 71.46% in 1981 and further to 62.4% in 1983. However, the main causes of this glut were the entry into the world oil market by the North Sea Oil Produce. The UK and Norway, they did not only increase the supply of world oil but also reduced their crude oil price to US & 35 per barrel. This force is that crude oil from Nigeria Libya and Algeria have the price with the North sea oil which led to the mass dissertation of their usual customers. Also, the result of the high price of world oil during the 1970 demanded for oil fall and alternative sources of energy were explored. France, for example which was at the one time dependent on oil for the generation of electricity then had up to 60% of her power needs supplied by nuclear power. By plant began commercial operation in many countries. Emphasis was given to energy saving investment hence, the demand for crude oil fail in early 1980 and a worldwide economic rececesion set-in in the following year.

Observing sales locally, the utility potential of petroleum products is high considering the population, base in Nigeria. Over 70% (percent) of about 100 million Nigerian depend petroleum products for daily business unfortunately, however the frequent upward review of t he prices of petroleum products has not augur well for Nigerian local business environment. The instability of oil prices has resulted proximate instability of prices.

1.1.4 CONTRIBUTION OF OIL TO NIGERIAN

ECONOMY

The oil industry in an integral part of the Nigeria economy. It provides among other things, the greater part of foreign exchange earnings and revenue for the country’s development employment opportunities have increased greatly by the oil industry. It should be noted that the oil industry is capital and equipment intensive, hence it employees relatively small number of perpous.

In regards to manpower training, the petroleum training institute (PTI) in Kalarri, Delta State for training and Promotion of skills needed in various aspect of petroleum technology. Scholarships have been awarded to many qualified Nigerians for the relevant course in the Nigerian Universities. Grants have equally been given to universities and polytechnics toward the development of departments that offer courses relevant to oil industry. Infrastructural development is another area the oil industry has made great contributions. The building of hospitals and pipe borne water etc are some example of the contributions.

1.1.5 NEGATIVE ASPECT OF OIL TO THE

NIGERIAN ECONOMIC

On industry as can be seen from the above has contributed immensely to the development of the economy. It is still contributing, but some of its shortcomings cannot be overlooked.

The high emphasis of government on oil has posed a serious neglect of other facet of Nigeria economy. The fluctuation of oil prices especially at the world market have seriously affected the government in the implementation of her budget. The idea of Nigeria being a ‘Mono-product economy’ has caused a serious imbalance in the economy resulting in unemployment, oil spillage and environmental pollution in the oil producing areas. This constitutes a serious problem to mankind and his environment.

1.2 MOTIVATION AND STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

Over the years, the frequent review of prices of petroleum products has gain a space in the heart of Nigerians, and most of the time, the out of stock of produces at depot for sales is also rampat.

In view of the above statement, the project examines total monthly sales of petroleum products in Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation in Enugu State and build a stochastic model for the data obtained.

1.3 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To determine the stationarity of sales of petroleum products.
To construct an autoregressive model of a suitable order for the process.
To forecast the series for sales in 2004 quarters.
To make recommendation based on the findings of the research.

1.4 SCOPE OF STUDY

The scope of this study covers the monthly sales of petroleum products by Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation for the past eight years (1996 to 2003) and the figures used are in million naira. STOCHASTIC TIME SERIES MODELS were used as appropriate.

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

In view of that fact that it is necessary to up grade standard in other to meet the text of time and improved models on ground. The researcher is poised to consolidate on the work done by some researchers in the past on related topics. This chapter therefore, reviews that works of past researchers and their reports as contained in textbooks, Newspapers, Bulletin and Journals on sales of petroleum products in Nigeria.

Prof Jubril Aminu, Hon Minister of Petroleum Resources (1990) sees sales of petroleum products as a function of production since research is abundant. He emphasis that investment has been low in all OPEC nations in general and Nigeria in particular. He stress that unless we increase our investment, production would decline and this would adversely affect sales.

Dr. T.M John (1990) in his speech said that “there is too much waste in NNPC, the management style and habits are most wasteful”. He emphasized that waste abounds in NNPC namely at the plants, in projects and in support services. He said in NNPC we replace rather than maintain and repair, we buy in excess of our requirement at prices higher than commercial average and from source capabilities lower than commercial standard.

The society’s view is that the general purpose of sales of petroleum products is to add comfort and well being of mankind. The way of fulfill this purpose is to produce meaningful work for the members of the society as well to produce distribute adequate oil and services to he needs of member of the society.

Unfortunately, government policy of the day seems to be inimical to this concept. The frequent increases in prices of petroleum product over the year has not address the plight of the masses. It is however hoped that economic reform program embarked upon by the present administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo will meet the need and yearning of the people

TIME SERIES DEFINITION

A time series is the name given to the values of some statistical variables measured over a uniform set of time points which may represent the historical performance of some economic or business variable. Examples of time series are total monthly sales receipts in a departmental store, total monthly sales of petroleum products, total monthly production by company, consumption of electricity in kilowatts data on population motor registration.

STOCHASTIC MODELS

MOVING AVERAGE PROCESS

As the researcher mentioned earlier:

Y_t = å_t – qå_t-1

The process is an example of a moving average process. The general expression for such a process is

Y_t = å_t – q₁å_t-1 – q₂å_t-2 ……………qqå_t – q

Where; q₁, q₂, ………qq are constants this will be referred to as finite moving average process of order q, M(q).

AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESS

The general Pth order autoregressive is define by

Y_t – q₁Y_t-1 – q₂Y_t-2 – …………q_p Y_p-p = å_t

Where q_1, q_2,…………… q_q are constants this will be referred to as finite moving average process of order q, M(q),

AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESS

The general pth order autoregressive is define by

Y_t – f₁ Y_{t – 1} – f₂ Y_{t – 2} – ……………… f_P Y_{P – P+}= å_t

Where f_1, f₂ ……… f_Pare constant and the model is denoted AR(P).

STATIONARY AND AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION

Consider the two autocorrelation functions correlogram

The diagrams above represent typical examples of type of time series. Considering the stationary time series, the autocorrelation functions drops off as lag K becomes larger. While the non-stationary time series keeps fluctuating along the horizontal line.

FORECASTING

Considering the use of stochastic models in forecasting. That is, the models in which the random element plays the dominant role in determining the structure of the model in the previous model, the disturbance element å_t was simply an added ‘error’, added separately at each time moment to a strictly deterministic function consider the model below

Y_t = fY_{4 + 1} + å_t

Where the independent disturbance element å_tare identically distributed with zero mean and s² and f is a parameter. This type of process is called an Autorepresive process since its form represents a regression of Y_t on Y_{t + 1}.

We may rewrite the expression above for one time unit forward as;

Y_t-1 = fY_{t + 1} + å_{t + 1}

It can be seen that both Autoregressive and moving average model can be expressed in terms of weighted moving sum (either infinite or finite) of the sequence å. It may be of help if we margin there model to be formed by a physical process in which the å_I value form the input to some mechanism or process and the Yi values the output. Suppose that when a particular process, there is only a single unit input at time 1 and no further input, then the system response by giving output of 1 at time 1, f, at time 2, f² at time 3 and so on. Such sequence is often referred to as impulse respond of the system – Box – Jeakins. It can be seen that the forecast for the Autoregressive model of order 2 as used by the researcher in this work is given as

Ŷ_t = f₁ y_t + f₂ y_{t – 1.}

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Continue reading THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF WOMEN AND CHILD TRAFFICKING →

Abstract

The negative impact of women and child trafficking is a project work written by Faith Amarachi Igbokwe, in partial fulfillment in statistics from Nuhu Bamali polytechnic Zaria.

The project aimed at observing the level of child and women being trafficking on the society. Chapter one gives the historical background of Nigeria immigration service, the scope and general aims and specific objective carried out in this project.

Chapter two describe the statistical tools used in the project and how these tools should be used. Also the literature review is included.

Chapter three present the method of data collection, problem and presentation.

Chapter four shows the analysis of the data collection using the statistical tools discussed in chapter two.

The last chapter, chapter five gives the conclusion drawn based on the analysis carried out in chapter four and the recommendations of the researcher.

CHAPTER ONE

1.1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.2 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES 2

1.3 HUMAN TRAFFICKING AND CHILD LABOR 2

1.4 SCOPE OF COVERAGE 3

CHAPTER TWO

2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW 4

2.2 STATISTICAL TOOLS 9

CHAPTER THREE

3.1 METHODOLOGY 14

3.2 METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION 14

3.3 PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED IN DATA COLLECTION 17

3.4 DATA PRESENTATION 18

CHAPTER FOUR

4.1 DATA ANALYSIS

CHAPTER FIVE

5.1 CONCLUSION 27

5.2 RECOMMENDATION 27

REFERENCE 28

CHAPTER ONE

1.1 INTRODUCTION

Human trafficking as a new trend meriminelity is often referred to as “modern day slavery”. Some people call it “the exploitation of the vulnerability of a person by a mother, having control over such person or for mainly exploitative purpose or financial gains, the manner of such exploitation very from force labor to sexual exploitation. Child labor and domestic slave force to obey another person all acts felt pity than love to slavery with money being the propelling factor for perpetrating such acts. There are internal and across the border trafficking.

Child labor refers to the use of children of school age, normally bellow the age of 18years working to earn a living under conditions that impair their physical, cognitive emotional mental and social development and which also deprives them of opportunity for recreational activities and privileges of childhood.

This new dimension of crime is solid to be organized and studies have revealed that, there are syndicates (middlemen/women) that specialize in perpetrating the crime.

Trafficking is a violation of fundamental human right.

Trafficking in persons is a global problem affecting large numbers of children some estimate have as many as 1.2 million children being trafficked every year. There is a demand for trafficked children as cheap labor or for sexual exploitation. Children and their families are then unaware of the dangers of trafficking believing that better unemployment all lives lay in other countries of the world like Germany, Nigeria, Japan, and Italy.

1.2 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

For the research to be meaningful and valid there should be a clearly defined objective of such survey aim at follow

i. Trafficking in persons.

ii. To determine the rear of population in trafficking.

iii. To see the effect of trafficking in the society.

iv. To determine the low enforcement and administrator.

1.3 HUMAN TRAFFICKING AND CHILD LABOR

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF COAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF THE NIGERIA COAL CORPORATION ENUGU FROM 1990-1999)STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF COAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF THE NIGERIA COAL CORPORATION ENUGU FROM 1990-1999)

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF COAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF THE NIGERIA COAL CORPORATION ENUGU FROM 1990-1999)

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Continue reading STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF COAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF THE NIGERIA COAL CORPORATION ENUGU FROM 1990-1999)STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF COAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF THE NIGERIA COAL CORPORATION ENUGU FROM 1990-1999) →

ABSTRACT

This research work was geared to determine the growth pattern in the coal production at the Nigeria Coal Corporation Enugu, for the period under study.

And this study is restricted to the Coal production ( in tones) form 1990 – 1999 at the Nigeria Coal Corporation Enugu which will reveal how well the Coal Industry has done in terms of production and the future prospect.

The measurement was in tones and the data were collected through the official records on production in the administrative office (production department) of the Nigeria Coal Corporation Enugu which was prepared and kept by.

And to accomplish this research work the same data were used in estimating the components of time series

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Title page

CHAPTER ONE

Introduction

Historical background
Aims and objectives of study
Scope f study
Literature review

CHAPTER TWO

Data collection
Limitation of study
Problems uncounted

CHAPTER THREE

Test for normality of production of coal
Test for homogeneity (constant) variance of production of coal.
Estimation of trend on production of coal
Determination of seasonal variations
Test for cyclical variation
Estimation of irregular variation/component.

CHAPTER FOUR

Forecasting
Summary/conclusion
Recommendations

Appendix

Reference.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

The Nigeria Coal Corporation information manual (1990) states that “Coal was first discovered in 1909 at streams along Udi escarpment in Enugu state by the first group of British colonial adventures in Nigeria following a survey by the then colonial mineral survey department of southern Nigeria, actual mining started in 1916 at the foot of Udi hill along Enugu escarpment”.

Iwu (1990) stated that “initially, the Coal industry was a unit of the marine department and Coal produced was supplied to the British for their steam boats. Other supplies were to the Nigeria Railways for the steam locomotives engines. Following the increase in transportation activities by rail, the Coal industry was excised from the marine department and established with the Nigerian Railway in 1937. Increased political awareness and a strike actin by Coal miners to back up demand for wage increase resulted in the gunning down of twenty-one Coal miners at Iva valley mine by their employers on 18^th November 1949. THE THEN British government set up a commission of inquiry headed by Sir Fitzgerald. This commission recommended that independent body been set up to manage government established business. In 1950 by the ordinance No.29. The Nigerian Coal Corporation was born”

Iwu (1990) went further to state that” the Nigeria Coal Corporation was then managed by the British was charged with the responsibility to prospect, mine, treat and market Coal and Coal by products in Nigeria. However, it was the shooting of the twenty-one (21) coal miners in Enugu that awakened the spirit of nationalism which subsequently gave birth to Nigeria’s independence in October 1960. The Coal industry gave rise to the first set of industries in Nigeria besides providing all the energy requirements for the nations premier industries, Coal became one of the major foreign change; earners for the then British colony.

The principal consumers of Coal are: The cement factories construction companies and overseas market

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

This study on the production of Coal in Enugu has the following objectives.

Estimation of the trend on production of coal for the past decade (ten years)
Determination of the seasonal influence on production of coal for the past decade (ten years).
Determination of the cyclical and irregular variation (if they exist).
Forecasting on the expected irregular of the production in future say one year ahead.

SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The analysis will be confined to the Coal production data covering 1990 to 1999 at the Nigerian Coals Corporation Enugu. It would study the growth pattern in coal production for the period under study.

What informed the choice of this period 1990 to 1999 is that it was in 1985-89 that then federal government decided to rehabilitate the Coal industry. Thus, the study will reveal how well the coal industry has some in terms of production and the future prospect.

The data for this analysis are categorized into monthly output of coal these are the daily output of Coal it is weighed in the factory. Measurement is in tones and it is cumulated at the end of the month to gives the figures being used for the study.

LITERATURE REVIEW

COAL:

Coal is a combustible rock which has its origin in the accumulation and partial decomposition of vegetation. Okafor (1981) described coal as “ a hard block mineral substance that burns and supplies heat and from which Coal gas in made” He went further to state that “it is formed out of decomposed plant matter for over hundred of thousand of years:.

The Coal in Nigeria was formed during the cretaceous period about 120 million years age, by the acting of pressure and heat on decayed vegetation. The coal reserves in the country are estimated to run into billions of tones.

Iman (1990) stated that “the total coal reserve in the country is over 2.7 billion tones and of which 600 million tones have been proven” Ali (1996) also stated that “with an estimated reserve of 2.75 billions tones deposited in 13 states viz, Enugu, Kogi, Edo, Anambra, Plateau, Benue, Imo, Abia, Ondon, Bauchi, Delta, Taraba, and Adamawa states. Nigeria coal has unlimited potentials for export”

Coal is classified into four main divisions usually, referred to as ranks depending on appearances and properties.

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The four main ranks are:

Lignite
Sub-bituminous
Bituminous
Anthracite

The great diversity of form and chemical composition among the coal ranks is due to principally to the essential differences in the plant material from which they have evolved.

Nigerian coal corporation information manual (1997) described Nigeria coal as being mainly sub-bituminous steam coals with low sulphur and ash contents.

They are characterized by high colorific value and high volatile components and are found to be environmentally friendly for this reason, Nigeria coals have great potential for export with current expert demand standing at 15 million metric tones per annum”

Coal can be minded by either surface coper pit or open cast or underground system. Surface mining consist essentially of removing the overburden this exposing the mine and then extracting the coal. The system is being adopted at our Okaba Coal mine Access to underground mine is either by “shaft” or Adit. A shaft may be a rectangular or circular hole driven from the surface to the coal seam of reason able size to allow the use of equipments for conveyance of both men and materials shafts are not used in Nigeria Coal fields. The methods of working horizontally or moderately inclined seams are known as Adit method.

Iwu (1990) observed that “a high incidence of extractable waxy and resinous materials make Nigerian Coal more amenable to utilization in the chemical industries especially as source of resins, plastics and aromatics. “Nigerian Coal are not only useful in chemical industries, it can also be used in thermal power station for electricity generations as domestic fuel as alternative to fire word thus ensuring a stop to deforestation with the consequent desertification and soil erosion as metallurgical coke for iron and steel industry.

The Coal industry has had one of the most cheques of histories in Nigeria. It was at one time one of the major foreign exchange earners in the country but in the recent past has not made any significant input t the economy.

Iwu (199) summarized the factors that contributed to the deteriorated state of the Coal industry as follows.

“The civil was of 1967 to 1970 which left all the coal mine shut down flooded and all the equipment dilapidated.
the rapid development and total dependence in oil industry and latterly the has industry in preference to coal for all the entry needs of the country.
The growing concern on the environment at impact of fossil fuel utilization especially coal.
Lack of conscious, co-ordinated and concerted effort between the various arms of government toward an integrated development of the mineral resources in the country.
There is not yet a comprehensive energy policy for Nigeria, which will stipulate strategy for developing various energy resources and rationalization of energy production and distribution to ensure a balanced energy mix for the country.

Inspite of all these problems, it is clear that the enormous potential of Nigerian coal is unquestionable.

Onu (1997) observes that “the annual demand for Nigerian Coal at the export market is 120 million tones while domestic demand for it stand at 170 million tones” The coal industry can, if properly harnessed generated the much needed foreign exchange in billion of Dollars for the country. It is note worthy that the present administration in recognition of this is decidedly playing a vital role to ensure that coal is re-integrated in to the energy matrix of Nigeria, through increased production and export as well as large scale utilization.

TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS:

Montgomery and Lynwood (1976) stated that “a time series is a sequence of observations on a variable of interest. The variable is observed at discrete time points usually equally spaced.

Mordi (1992) defined “time series as an arraignment of statistical data ordered according to the fines of its occurrence in data classified chronologically. “Thus a collection of numerical values of a particular variable listed in chronological order is known as time-series. The record of months scale and production of a company over a number of months or years, the schools daily attendance, amount of annual rainfall over a number of years, the weights of an animal record at different stages of growth are all examples of time series. the time can be days, weeks, months, years, decades or even seconds.

Ifeagwu (1992) states that “time series involves classifying and studying, the patterns of movement of the values of the variable over regular time. It enhances under standing of the past and current pattern of changes. It provides dues about future patterns which aid in forecasting and such information is needed by researchers and policymakers”.

Spiegel (1972) and Nwabuokei (1986) observed that the characteristic movements to time series may be classified into four main types. Often caked components of a time series.

Long term or secular movements: refers to the general direction in which the graph of a time series appears to be going over long interval of time.
Cyclical movements: refers to the long term oscillations or swings about trend line or curve. These cycles, as they are sometimes called May or may not be periodic is they may or may not follow exactly similar patterns after equal internals for time. In business and economic activity, movements are considered cyclical only if they recur after time intervals of more than a year. An important example of cyclical movement is the so called business cycles representing intervals of prosperity recession, depression and recovering.
Seasonal movement: refer to the identical or almost identical pattern which a time series appear to follow during corresponding months of successive years such movement are due to recurring events which take place annually, as for instance the sudden increase of departmental stores sales before Christmas.
Irregular or random movement: refer to those sporadic motions of time series due to chance events such as floods, strikes, elections etc. Although it is ordinarily assumed that such events produce variations lasting only a short time, it is conceivable that they may be so intense as to result in new cyclical or other movements.

Time series analysis involves the decomposition of a series into the fundamental trend (Tt), seasonal variation (St), cyclical variation (Ct) and irregular variation (It) Components on the bases of three possible models named the additive, multiplication and mixed models.

Meclave and Benson (1988) noted that the difference between these models is:

In the additive model, all the components are treated as residuals and are expressed is the original units while in the multiplicative model, only one is the trend is expressed in the units of the original data seasonal and cyclical components are treated as relative or percentages whose average value is 100.
The word “additive” signifies lack of interaction effect among components. It is therefore here assumed that the valve of one component does not effect and is not affected by the value of the other components. the multiplicative model implies mutual dependence among components in an algebraic sence i.e. it is assumed that both seasonal and cyclical fluctuations are functions of the trend.
In the additive model, seasonal variation remains constant as trend increases, while in the multiplication model the ratio of seasonal to trend remains constant i.e. seasonal variation increase in magnitude as trend increases. This shows that we can distinguish the additive model from the multiplication model by observing the effects of the trend values upon seasonal fluctuation and cyclical variations. They observed that although the additive model assumption is very true in some cases, that the multiplicative assumption characterizes the majority of economic time series. Consequently, the multiplicative model is not only considered the standard assumption of time series analysis.

It is more often employed in practice than other possible model. Time-series analysis has wide applications and cuts across most human endeavour more especially the business and economic aspects.

Ifeagwu (1992) adopted Time-series analysis on the price of major foodstuffs in Imo State from 1985 to 1989. He adopted the multiplicative model in general and used the last square method in estimating the trend, ratio to moving average method in estimating the seasonal index and also the cyclical and irregular components. In the study, he found that prices of major foodstuff have an increasing trend. His projections also show possible increases in prices of major foodstuff in Imo State.

Bulus (1992) took a study of property crime in Plateau State from 1985 to 1990 using the time series analysis. He found through trend estimation by least square method that property crime is on the increase while the seasonal analysis did not show significant seasonal influences.

He used the ratio to moving average method in estimating the seasonal component. His prediction indicates possible increase in property crimes.

Generally, h adopted the multiplicative model in his time series analysis.

Nwafor (1991) in a study on case of juvenile delinquency in Anambra State used the time series analysis. In his trend estimation by method of least square he found the delinquency trend to be on the increase and persons between the ages of fourteen and seventeen to be more delinquent. He used ratio to moving average method in estimating the seasonal index. Multiplication model was adopted in his time series analysis.

Egbosimba (1997) in a similar study on case of juvenile delinquency in Enugu found delinquent to have a constant trend and persons between the ages of fourteen and seventeen to be more delinquent. She also used the multiplicative model in her time series analysis.

Obi (1997) in this study of monthly water supply and revenue recovered at Onitsha Anambra State used time series analysis employing the multiplicative model. He the estimated the trend by least square method and found water distribution trend to be down ward or decreasing instead of being constant or increasing. Using the ratio to be in April an least in October.

Nwogwugwu (1997) used time series analysis on the study of Naira exchange rate vis-à-vis the dollar from September 1986 to December, 1995. He estimated the trend using three different methods: Least square, moving average and exponential smoothing methods as best method for estimating the trend because of its minimum variance property.

The least square method as second best while the exponential smoothing method as the last of the three methods. He used the ratio to moving average method to estimate the seas oral index which was adjusted and used to deseasonalize the data. The trend equation obtained was used in extrapolation in order to predict future values.

From the above literature, it is clear that time series analysis can be adopted in virtually all fields of human endeavour so long the data are collected in specified time intervals or chronological order. Hence, it will not be out of place adopting time series analysis in this work.

Time series analysis is consistent and in line with our original aims, and making prediction on production and sales of Coals in Nigeria Coal Corporation, Enugu.

More so, our data as obtained are chronological order

CHAPTER TWO

DATA COLLECTION

The conceptual variables appropriate in the analysis of the work are known from the definite specifications made in reference to the topic. The variables are production of Coal.

Secondary data were used for the analysis. The source of data was the official records on production in the administrative offices (production departments) of the Nigerian Coal Corporation, Enugu. The production departments monitor an keep records of production on daily and monthly basis. For the periods under study (1990 to 1999) the monthly totals for production in metric tones were extracted from the record books for use in this study.

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