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Statistic project topics and material preview

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE

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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE

(A CASE STUDY OF NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS,) FROM THE 2003 – 2008.

ABSTRACT

This research work was aimed at carrying out statistical analysis of federal government’s revenue and expenditure 2003-2008. Secondary data was obtained from National Bureau of Statistics. The statistical package used is Mintab. The result of the analysis shows that there is positive and strong relationship between expenditure and revenue 0.938 and the regression equation is expenditure = 123 + 0.367 revenue. The regression equation shows that when the revenue increase, the expenditure also increases.

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.0     Introduction

1.1     Historical Background of the Study

1.2     Aims of the Study

1.3     Objectives of the Study

1.4     Scope of the Study

1.5     Definition of terms

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW AND STATISCAL TOOL(S)

2.0     Introduction

2.1     Nigerian Economy and oil ….

2.2.    Inflation in Nigerian economy

2.3     Effect of the global economic meltdown on the Nigeria economy

2.4     Consolidation in the banking system

2.5     Capital base and bank soundness

2.6     Statistical tools

CHAPTER THREE; METHODOLOGY

3.0     Introduction

3.1     Methods of data collection

3.2     Problems encountered in data collection

3.3     Data presentation

CHAPTER FOUR: DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS

4.0     Introduction

4.1     Data analysis

4.2     Discussion of result

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.0     Introduction

5.1     Summary

5.2     Conclusion

5.3     Recommendation

CHAPTER ONE

1.0     INTRODUCTION

Public finance is a field of economics concerned with how government raises money, how that money is spent and the effect of these activities on the economy and on the society.

Expenditure and revenue of the country fall under the topic, public finance. However, in a developing economy like Nigeria, management of moderate deficit financing is tailored toward useful and development oriented projects. This necessitated me to focus attention on the amount of expenditure and revenue generated in Nigeria over the past years.

Government generates revenue from various economic sectors: these are divided into oil and non-oil revenue:

  1. Oil Revenue: This is the revenue generated from oil sectors of the economy which comprise:
    1. Petroleum profit tax and royalties
    2. Others which include revenue from export sales, domestics sales, tax on petroleum products, rents etc.
  1. Non Oil Revenue: This is revenue generated from other sectors of the economy other than the oil sector which comprises of:
    1. Company income tax
    2. Custom and exercise duties
    3. Value added tax (V.A.T)
    4. Federal government independent revenue which comprises revenue from interest payments rents on government properties, personal income tax of armed forces, police, external affair and federal capital residents
    5. Other which include custom levies, education tax etc.

The revenue generated from different sectors of the economy is allocated to:

  1. Federation accounts which include transfer to federation accounts from domestic oil sales
  2. Value added tax (VAT) pool accounts
  3. AFEM surplus account
  4. Petroleum Trust Fund
  5. JVC Payment account
  6. External debt service funds
  7. National priority projects fund
  8. Other which include transfers to special and excess reserves and education fund

The revenue generated from various sectors of the economy is spent on:

  1. Administration which comprises of:
    1. General administration
    2. Defence
    3. Internal security
    4. National assembly
  1. Economic services which include
    1. Agriculture
    2. Roads and construction
    3. Transport and communication
    4. Other economic services
  2. Social and community services which are:
    1. Education
    2. Health
    3. Others
  1. Transfers
    1. Public debt charges
    2. Domestic
    3. Foreign
    4. Pension and gratuities
    5. F.C.T and others

1.1     HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

The National Bureau of statistics (NBS) has a humble beginning starting in 1928 as a statistics unit in the office of the colonial secretary in the cabinet secretariat of British Colonial administration.

In 1947 a more focused reorganization took place with the establishment of a statistics section in the department of customs and exercise which later metamorphosed into a full pledged department of statistics.

In 1949, the departments responsibilities were expanded to form the nucleus of a centralized national statistics office for the country with the adoption of the federal system of government in 1968 central and the regional government had their statistics establishments incorporated into a decentralized National Statistics System (NSS). A legal frame work for statistics operation in Nigeria was unable with the statistics act of 1937. The act gave backing for a decentralized statistical system but advocated collaboration between the central and regional statistical office in addition to co-ordinate their activities.

At independence in 1960, the department of statistics was moved from customs and excuse to the Federal Ministry of Economic Development with its name changed to the federal office of statistics (FOS) in the 1980s further re-organization of the Nigeria statistics system (NSS) led to the Central Bank of Nigeria taking on the collection of financial statistics and the National Population Commission given the responsibility of population statistics including the conduct of census length and collection of vital statistics like birth and death registrations and immigration statistics, as well as the conduct of demography and health surveys.

In 1989, a wholly computerized data management agency was established called National Data Bank (NDB). NDB is a data house, was designed to hold time series data dating back to 1914 when Nigeria was created. The agencies FOS and NDB maintained a complex and over lapping relationship with other members of the National Statistical Offices (NSO) itself. Reforms started the repositioning of the federal office of statistics (FOS) in 2004 when it was merged with the National Data Bank. The reforms in driver by the statistical master plan (SMP) produced by the Federal Government of Nigeria with assistance from the World Bank.

The merged of FOS and NDB led to the establishment of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to give the agency a National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to give the agency a National outlook as the apex statistical agency for all the three tiers of government. NBS is expected to co-ordinate system of the production of official statistics all the federal ministries departments and agencies (MDAS), state statistical agencies (SAS) and local government council (LGC). The 1957 statistics act has been repeated and a new bill has been passed to give NBS a legal backing.

1.2     AIM OF THE STUDY

To conduct a statistical study into public finance of the federation, that is revenue and expenditure of the federal government of Nigeria (2003-2008) using regression analysis.

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Statistic project topics and material preview

THE EFFECT OF SECRET CULTS IN OUR TERTIARY INSTITUTIONS (A CASE STUDY OF I.M.T ENUGU)

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THE EFFECT OF SECRET CULTS IN OUR TERTIARY INSTITUTIONS (A CASE STUDY OF I.M.T ENUGU)

 

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ABSTRACT

 

The objective of the study is to ascertain the effect of secret cult in our tertiary institution.

It equally looks the actions of the members of the different secret cults.

In other to achieve this, I made use of students, lectures, Administrative staff of institutes of management and technology, Enugu.

A questionnaire measuring the factors or effects of students involvement in secret cult was administered on the subjects.

In the use of mean and percentage scores to find out if any of the factors domains would be perceived as the major effects of students involvement in secret cult of I.M.T, Enugu. I discovered that the academic factor and the economic factors ranked it and 2nd respectively as the major causes.

And in the use of chi-square to find out the perception of the judges on the effects of secret cult, I found that the hypothesis which says that there is no professional bias among the judges is accepted since the calculated X24.365 < 12.6, which implies that there is no professional bias among the judges.

Recommendations where also made on how to curb the menace of secret cult from our universities.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

 

Title page

Approval page

Dedication

Acknowledgement

Abstract

Table of content

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

  • General overview
  • Objective of the study
  • Significant of the study
  • Scope and limitation of the study
  • Research problems

CHAPTER TWO

Literature review

CHAPTER THREE

Research methodology

  • Method of data collection
  • Sources of data
  • Method of investigation

CHAPTER FOUR

Data presentation and analysis

CHAPTER FIVE

Conclusion and recommendations

Bibliography

Questionnaire

 

CHAPTER ONE

 

INTRODUCTION

  • GENERAL OVERVIEW

Whenever the story of secret cults in our tertiary institutions today is told it is always synonymous with blackmail and intimidation, torror, panic and pandemonium often resulting in Wreckages and Wanton Blord letting.

In the media, one hears cases of female students being raped here and there, other students loosing their lives as rival cult groups clash, cars and apartments belonging to lecturers and school authorities being burnt down, threats, counter threats and extortion of money and materials from fellow students by cult members.

Infact, the manner of violence often exhibited by these cult groups on campus would surprise horror movie actors and made nonsense of the tactics of guerilla terrorist.

Ironically, any of these cults some of which had been in existence close to four decades, where in the first place established by people who in their own rights or good and responsible citizens of this country. Many of founding fetters are now renowned internationals figures, world acclaimed intellectuals and achievers one right then begin to wonder as to why such great personalities could have had a hand in the laying of fiber eggs that eventually hatched and are now rampaging and threatening to bring our school system down to its foundations.

Interestingly, many of them now utilize every forum they attend to disown and totally disclaim these clandestine societies whose activities they say negate the spirit and circumstances for which they were put in place originally. They would tell all those who cared to listen that the secret campus cults as we known them today had not always been “secret” both in membership and operation and that they were at inception set up to highlight and protect the interest of students from evil intentions of some mischievous lectures who would victimize students in one way or the other.

How them did these seemingly harmless students, clubs and societies come to metamorphose into cheques of criminal banditry and devitish gangster ion. From the foregoing, it does appear that in forming these cults, their founding fathers probably did not reckon with the devastating effects their actions would later have on the society and the nations educational system. It could as well be that there are more to the situation than the public would be made to know.

Whichever way it is, the fact is that the seed of fire planted decades ago has now grown into a dangerous and uncontrollable wild fire. Gradually, the entire society is earring into the bite of this cankerworm which has continued to eat deeper and deeper everyday. Unfortunately the prey to this cult activities are the youths presented to be heir-apparent to the leadership of this country. If we fail in our guest to find the solution now, what kind of leadership would the youths of today offer the nation tomorrow? Some of them have left school and agree now to mixed with the society. The bad signs are already showing

Everybody now feel concerned and it is good that social organizations, religious groups and public spirited individuals are making frantic efforts to eliminate secret cult activities from our campuses. The government on the other hand had emaciated laws and legislations to check the ugly phenomenon security agent have as well been arresting and persecuting some cult members as deterrents to others.

But as all those were going on, campus cults seem to be going more ground and rings round themselves making their members. Untouchable perhaps we are not trying enough or that we are just wasting efforts at the wrong direction.

Why is it that the membership of these cults is often drawn from the children of the shakers and movers of the society or from the sons and relations of men and women at the corridors of power and influence? Some of these children have never known violence before they left their homes for the school. Why is it also that not even the several laws and legislations in existence nor the arrests and prosecution cult members were able to deter them? r what is so mysterious about these cults that members and former members are always afraid to reveal anything to non-members even at gum points. Moreover, are there some existing pips in the lives of these youths which are neglected and which they sought to fill in their own ways.

This research work takes a close and critical look at all these and more the write-up is quite incisive though by no mean exhaustive.

  • OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The main objective of this study is to examine the major effects of student’s involvement in campus cults. It is often said that the tertiary institution is an intellectual bakery. This study tries to find out the true position of the statement in our schools. Special emphasis is therefore placed on the effects of cult activities in our tertiary institution. Attention is also paid to the impact on the lives of the youths involved both as special elements, as students and as leaders of the forthcoming generation.

In other words, the researchers bring to light the immediate and future consequences of campus cults on the society.

  • SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

Much effort is begin put into finding lasting solutions to the menace of secret societies in our schools. Perhaps there are areas that need to be checked out to ensure that in finding the solutions, the society is not just treating a sickness without first diagnosing the systems. This study mighty as well provides the missing link. It tries to do this by promoting out some of the hitherto neglected long-term effects of students involvement in secret cults and by showing the forces keeping these cults alive in schools are very much far beyond the school building.

  • SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

The researchers of this project’s involvement in cults are not enough. That is why I went further to cover both the reasons for students involvement and remedies to the problem. The process of finding out these reasons threw up some interesting and challenging experience which are quite intringing as they are controversial.

I further limited my study to cover the beginning of this decade till date. The period is particularly significant because it is the most crisis-ridden era in the history of secret societies in our tertiary institutions. Besides had to concentrate my research on I.M.T due to logistic reasons.

  • RESEARCH PROBLEMS

In writing the project, I encountered several problems among which are the following:-

  1. a) Scarcity of research materials – due to the sensitive of the topic and the newness of the subject, it is virtually impossible to come by publications which dealt on the issue. It appears that not many writers are interested in writing books or journals in it.

Again, most respondents where too reserved to co-operate with me. The first impression they get is that I am security informants and agents are commonly trying to extract implicating confessions from them. It took a lot of persuasions and self-identifications to get people to open up. Infact I had to juggle my questionnaire several times before I could get student respondents to it.

  1. b) Finance – One major handicap that weighted heavily on me is that of money. Consequently could not visit many of the places I would have very much loved to visit.

The cost of stationers and typing materials has also risen outrageously. At a front I had to reduce the numbers of illustration in the text to save typing cost.

 

 

 

Statistic project topics and material preview

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE REGISTRATION OF MOTOR VEHICLES IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF ASABA DELTA STATE 1993-2002)

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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE REGISTRATION OF MOTOR VEHICLES IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF ASABA DELTA STATE 1993-2002)

 

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ABSTRACT

This project is based on time series analysis of quarterly registration of motor vehicles in Asaba Delta-state (1993 –2002) the whole project is divided into five chapters.Chapter one, deals with the introduction aspect of the study. Chapter two, the literature review, makes reference to other people’s work that are similar to this study.

Chapter three and four of this project work deal with the analysis of the time series data collected, filling of models, identification, forecasting.

Chapter five, consists of finding, conclusions and recommendation.

TABLE OF CONTENT

 

CHAPTER ONE                                                                                      

  • Background of the study 1
  • Purpose of study 3
  • Significance of the study 3
  • Limitation 4
  • Scope of study 4

CHAPTER TWO                                                                                               

Literature review                                                                               5

CHAPTER THREE                                                                                 

Research methodology                                                                      8

3.0     Introduction                                                                                      8

  • Source of data           8
  • Data analysis techniques 9
  • Time series analysis 9

CHAPTER FOUR                                                                                    

4.0   Data presentation and analysis                                                         14

CHAPTER FIVE                                                                                               

  • Findings 26
  • Conclusion 26
  • Recommendation 27

Appendix                                                                                         28

Bibliography                                                                                     29

 

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

  • BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Motor vehicle evolves from the horse drawn carriage, it’s near relative from the horse drawn carriage, it near relative the stream carriage and perhaps the 19th century tricycle, but as the year went by gradually. Lost it likeness to any of it progenitor. All these at each stage of development were each used for transportation which help to limit and eventually abandon the use of animals and foot for transportation.

Every vehicle kept or used on, only public road must be registered and the appropriate vehicle license fee paid in respect of it. This is done by applying for a motor vehicle license.

The board of internal revenue which was known to be the revenue division of ministry of finance is the authority responsible for the insurance of vehicle license in the state. This board has motor licensing office in the various local government areas and the licensing offices in the various local government areas gives the monthly report to the state board.

There are two classes of vehicles which can be registered. They are the one that is import from outside the country or manufacture in the country that needed a change of registration for the new national identification scheme. the former require the former to fill the national motor vehicle administration form in duplicate signed by the customer. The document will be sent to the motor licensing officer in charge to verify the genuity of the document. If they are confirmed to be genuine, he will ask for two passport of the customer and mandate a registration clerk to register the vehicle before he signs. The customers pay the registration fee depending on the type of vehicle and the national vehicle administration form (N.V.A.F) is forward to the road safety commission for filling.

While the later is supervised by the federal road safety commission filling. The local government council will require all the vehicles to change their number plate and request for registration. General motor receipt each of which is to be photocopied in duplicate, the four copies of the (N.M.V.F) form will be filled and present to the motor vehicle licensing office for verification before mandating the registration clerk to register.

This registration exercise help the customer and the police to recover his/her vehicle if lost, it safe guide us against security purpose, easy identification, uniformity and revenue collection which is the source of our national income.

  • PURPOSE OF STUDY
  1. To determine the trend of registration of motor vehicle in Asaba, Delta state from the year 1993 – 2002.
  2. To forecast the number of motor vehicle registered in Asaba, Delta state for 2003 – 2004
  3. To make recommendation and conclusion on the registration of motor vehicle in Asaba, Delta state
  • SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

The findings of this research will help to establish the performance of the scheme and to find out about operational problem facing the registration system. This research work will give the internal revenue board to introduce measure and policies that will encourage the registration officers to run the operations it will also review the operation and activities of the board of internal revenue through which improvement can be accomplished and serves as a reference point to future researchers.

  • LIMITATION

Due to the high cost of transportation, lack of sufficient time series analysis and other problem that might have confronted the researcher, it become imperative to get the best and of a rather difficult and challenging situation

  • SCOPE OF STUDY

The researcher will focus his research on Asaba Area of Delta- state. This will enhance an indebt study which may be duplicated in other place by other researchers, to confirm or disapprove it’s kindling. In this study only the time series analysis of the registration of motor vehicle is considered.

 

 

 

Statistic project topics and material preview

REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON NATIONAL INCOME (FROM 1998 – 2003) (A CASE OF FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA)

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REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON NATIONAL INCOME (FROM 1998 – 2003) (A CASE OF FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA)

 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title page

Approval page

Dedication

Acknowledgement

Table of contents

CHAPTER ONE

1.0     Introduction

1.2     Statement of problem/motivation

13      Aims and objectives

1.4     Scope of the study

1.5     Significance of the study

1.6     Definition of concepts

CHAPTER TWO

Literature Review

CHAPTER THREE

3.0     Methodology

3.1     Research method: regression

CHAPTER FOUR

Analysis of Data

CHAPTER FIVE

Conclusion

Recommendation

References

 

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

          National income is the sum of the money value of all the commodities and services produced in a country within a particular period of time usually one year.

The question of how an economy grows could come to mind at this juncture.  It the amount of goods and services produced by an economy increases.  If it does not increase yearly, it is not growing, even if it is growing, the rate of growth may not be uniform among years.  Therefore it may not be possible to determine the condition of the economy.

In any case, an economy needs an indicator for measuring economy growth, this indicator is the monetary summation at all the commodities and service produced in an economy within a particular period of time usually a year.

To get national income of a country like Nigeria for instance, we take the list of the goods and services produced in the country during the year, assign values to them and add up.  If we can do this year after year, we shall be able to make comparison of activities of Nigeria year after year.  Then we can decisively determine whether the economy of Nigeria is growing, declining or stagnant.  It is growing if the National income increases year after year, declining, if the National income is decreasing and stagnant it there is no difference in the National Income for years.

In measuring National Income, an indicator called Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used at current price.  It is therefore quite important here to point out the role that prices could play in the measurement of National Income.  Prices of goods and services changes from time to time.  These changes can affect any attempted estimates.  Considerably.  Therefore to get an idea of the real physical change in National Income from year to year, effect of price changes must be removed.

National Income should be measured in real terms and allow for changes in price levels.  For instance whenever the economy experiences inflation, price rises while the quantities of goods and services may remain constant.  Let us say that 2000, the total units of the go0ods and services realized in Nigeria amounted to 50,000 units and also 50,000 units in 2001.  Let us further assume that the average per unit in 2000 was N10.00 while the price in 2001 was N15,000.

Nigeria’s income with GDP as an indicator for 2000 was 50,000 units X N10.00 = N5000,000 Nigeria’s income with GDP as an indicator for 2001 was 50,000 units X N15.00 = N750,000.

If the two figures were presented to a layman as final products of overall estimates for 2000 and 2001, he would be tempted to say that the National income for 2001 was higher than that of 2000.  This is so monetarily but really the income for both year are equal.  The difference in value was due to rise in p rice in 2001 while the quantities of goods and services were the same in both years.

The same thing can be applicable when a country experience deflation or depression.  Therefore in measuring national income for different years using gross domestic product as an indicator effects of price changes must be given the normal due.  In so doing the changes in economy can be determined appropriately.

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM/MOTIVATION

          As a result of poor economic condition in Nigeria relevant information is of great interest to me for investigation if viable economic solution can be revealed.

Nigeria considered as one of the third world countries is been assessed by their income yearly.  It is a simple logic of our living that it country’s income is high with considerable population, the enjoyment of the citizens of that country would be high, while the enjoyment is low with low national income.  It is on this point that I find it very expedient to analyze the national income of Nigeria and make necessary recommendation for the improvement of the economy for the betterment of the citizenry.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

          In view of Nigeria’s economic predicament, the project is aimed at investigating the relationship existing between disposable income, savings and government final expenditure for the purpose of suggesting solutions to our economic problems.

After the regression analysis had been carried out, it will supply solution to the following questions:

  1. Is any linear relationship between the variables listed?
  2. How reliable is our regression coefficient?
  3. Can we predict the future value of dependent variable?
  4. How reliable will be our estimate?

SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The study is centre on “National Income, Savings and Government Final Consumption Expenditure Covering the period of six years 1998 – 2003.

The raw data used are collected as primary data by federal office of statistics” publication and Federal Ministry of Finance Publication.  The data are collected as primary data by federal office of statistics and used as secondary data in this project which centered on national Accounts.  Some of these National Accounts Aggregates Include Gross Domestic Product (GDP) final consumption expenditure, exports and imports.

National Accounts data presents the record of economic transaction of the economic in a systematic manner and show the relationship between the various components of the economy.  Economic transaction cover all the activities of an entity (Household, government, firm, financial institution) that are of economic nature (production, consumption distribution, savings and foreign exchange transactions.  These economic transactions of all the entiti8tes and combined together ad presented inform of account.

Data collected for analysis in this study center on:-

  1. Appropriation of disposable income as dependent variable.
  2. Savings as one of the independent variable
  3. Government final consumption expenditure as another independent variable.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

          The study will help to know the status of Nigeria economy.  The knowledge of the status will help to make necessary recommendation in order to revitalize the poor economic condition of the country for the better future.

The study will also create avenue for future research.

DEFINITION OF CONCEPTS

Gross Domestic Product (GDP):      This is the sum of the money value of all locally produced goods and services.  It does not include international transaction.  GDP does not make allowance for depreciation of capital.

Gross National Product (GNP):      This is the total money value of current market prices of all final goods and services produced by the nationals during a specific period.  It includes net income from abroad in respect of the country’s nationals without any consideration for depreciation of capital.

National Domestic Product (NDP): This is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country in a period of time.  It exclude the value of the net earnings and incomes from abroad.  An allowance being made for depreciation of capital.

Net National Product (NNP): This is the monetary value of all goods and services produced within the country during a specific period.  It includes net incomes and earning from abroad and provision being made for the replacement of depreciation of capital.

Disposable Income (DPI):      This is the amount of money per year that private sector are free to spend when depreciation of capital, all taxes, all net profits made by firms but not paid out as divided are added to the disposable and transfer payment subtracted.  We arrive at gross national product.

Net Economic Welfare (NEW):                 This examines those factors not considered when calculating the Gross National Product (GNP).  Such factors include social cost 9pollution) and leisure time the net economic welfare tend to remove the product (GNP).  A nation might have a very high GNP at a very great social cost as pollution, rising crime etc.

Per Capita Income (PCI)        This is the gross domestic product divided by the population of the country.  Per capita income can be calculated once the population and gross domestic product are known.  So that P.C.I = GDP

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

Galton (1886) first used the word “regression” in connection with predicting the mature height of children from the height of their parents.  Galton corrected for the sex difference by multiplying all female height by 1.08, and he used a single predictor variable taken to be the mean of the fathers, height ad corrected mothers height.

After some consideration of data, it becomes apparent that the height of children of parents whose height exceeds average by x inches will themselves, on the average exceed the average by less than x inches.

In other words, the children regress in average sense back to the mean.  By gradual metamorphoses, the term linear regression analysis came to mean the least square prediction scheme and hence the term multiple regression came to mean the general case with a multiple  set of variable V1, V2, V3…… Vp-1 available as predictors.

The history of the method as opposed to that of its common statistical name is quite different.  According to Gauss (1809) he first used the method in 1795 in a different context and under the name “method of least squares’.  Gauss did not publish his claim until 1809 and legendry had independently described the method in 1806.

According to Eisenhart (1963), the method arose as a natural extension of the principle of averaging the results of several observation of the same quality to reduce measurement error.

It is interesting that the basic computational ideas may be traced back to Gauss (1811) who derived them in connection with l east square analysis and illustrate them with the data which he used to identify the orbit of the asteroid pallas from observations over the period 1803 – 1809.

In the exact sciences like astronomy, chemistry and physics, it is possible to formulate laws connecting several quantities e.g density temperature and pressure of a gas, so that anyone of these quantities can be determined (subject to small experimental errors) from the others.  In methodology, production is much less certain, but it is still possible to forecast the weather with considerable success.

In living science like biology and agriculture there are so many unknown factors at work that every different result may be obtained from what appear to be identical causes.

Even here, however, the law of average hold good.  Eg fat men and women tend to have fat children although the association is only partial.

The adult sons of men below average height will on the whole be nearer the average height than their fathers e.g the sons of men 1.6m tall might, on the average, reach about 1.7m.  It was this regression to the normal noticed by Sir Francis Galton in his research on heredity that gave the “regression analysis” to this branch of statistics.

While therefore, the son’s height cannot be deduced from the fathers it is possible knowing the fathers height to make a better forecast of the sons height than simply taking the average of the population.

Narrowing it down to the study, knowing the national income data fro few years and making analysis on them can help to make a better forecast on the future state of the economy.

OBSERVATION OF NIGERIA ECONOMY

We are convincingly aware about the low standard of living in Nigeria because our per capita income is very low.  We must consider how to raise our standard of living which is basically the problem of raiding per-capita income.  Simply all things must be done to see that the GDPs for the possible by increasing the GDP and by controlling the population growth.

Much have been said about population and its attendants.  We only need to adhere that in Nigeria the death rate fall while birth rate, increases, therefore population zooms higher and higher without corresponding increase in the production of goods and services.  Consequently and with this awareness the government should timely encourage family planning schemes.

Nigeria is firmly struggling to increase the GDPs.  This is manifested in the various budgets presented to the nation by her past leaders.  Government is aware of the fact that to increase the GDP means to increase the flow of goods and services to the consumers.  And that this could only be done by the joint effort of increasing the productivity efficiently and increasing the quantities of the factors of production, make the existing factors produce more.

Then increase the labour force and improve their skill by education, bring more of the vacant lands under production and use more capital is to industrialize.  Capital singularly contributes more than nay other that we lack seriously in Nigeria today.

This makes the rate of growth of the economics of Nigeria very low-below 6% which is the UND’s poor Nations growth rates.

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STATISTICAL STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF COMMUNITY BANKS ON RURAL AREA (A CASE STUDY OF OBOLLO COMMUNITY BANK (NIG) LTD UDENU ENUGU STATE)

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STATISTICAL STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF COMMUNITY BANKS ON RURAL AREA (A CASE STUDY OF OBOLLO COMMUNITY BANK (NIG) LTD UDENU ENUGU STATE)

 

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ABSTRACT

        This research work is aimed at knowing impacts of community banks on rural areas using Obollo Community Bank (Nigeria) Limited Udenu, as the case study.

This research was analysis using time series and data collection on the number of people that benefited from loan facility since the inception of the case study that is a period of six years, from 1997 to 2002 so to analyses how the rural masses appreciated the ideal of the community banking in Obollo Community.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TITLE PAGE

APPROVAL PAGE

DEDICATION

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

ABSTRACT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

STATEMENT OF PROBLEMS

SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY

SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF STUDY

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

KINDS OF BANK INSTITUTION

CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH OF METHODOLOGY

METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION

PROBLEM OF DATA COLLECTION

DATA PRESENTATION

CHAPTER FOUR

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION

RECOMMENDATION

REFERENCES

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

        The introduction of community banking in Nigeria was an innovation, which was greatly influenced the financial sector of our economy.  It w as provided basic and ready solutions to some problems that for many years seemed insurmountable.  For instance, the country has continued to experience balance of payments difficulties, increasing debt, service burden, and gross depreciation in the exchange value of the Naira, persistence industrial unrest and low productivity.  All these are clear manifestation of economic depression.  Then, the fundamental concepts of a community bank is to establish a self sustaining financial institution owned and managed by members of a community for the purpose of providing credit, banking and other financial service to its members.  Largely by their self recognition and credit worthiness.

First, community banks enhance the economic activities in the rural areas, encouraging development and promoting community ownership.

Secondly, it transformed the tradition rotational credit system in formal banking.   The rural dwellers imbedded a banking culture which provided easy loans and better security and management at personal funds.  It would therefore not be an over statement to say that community banks succeeded where commercial and merchant banks failed.  This is true because the marginalisation of rural people by the other banks had compelled the central bank of Nigeria, some year ago, to issue a directive that specified the number of branches of commercial banks be opened in rural areas, though over 750 of such rural bank sprang up, the problem still persisted. Consequently, the search continued until December 1990 when the first community bank in Nigeria was born in Tudun Wada, Kaduna State.  It was established by decree number 46 of 1992 and amended by decree number 97 of 1993, Community Banks soon spread across the hinter land, receiving wide ovation and support from the rural dwellers.

The reason was simple because the difference was clear.  A community bank has simple ownership structure.  In this set up a Community Development Association (CDA) is the primary promoter of the bank with at least 30% of shares indigenes are also encouraged individually to buy shares not exceeding 5%.  The received loans easily without collaterals and become owners of banks located in their environment.  In effect a community bank can be said to be the people, the people and for the people.  No wonder; today there are about 1,982 community banks in the 36 states of the country and Abuja and provided employment to over 1,5000 people.

According to the executive secretary of the National Board for Community Banks, Alhaji Zakan Isa Chawai, the total assets of these bank stand at over N4 billions while the total deposit so far mobilized is over N3 billions, the country banks also have share holders funds of almost N800 millions while loans and advances of over N1 billion have been given to their customers.

A friend in need, it is said ‘is a friend indeed’.  And community banks have proved to be friends in need.  Not only because their doors are open for longer hours providing banking services even at weekends and public holidays, but because they have given succor to their customers especially whenever the other banks went on strike.  This is another reason why many traders, farmers, manufacturers, and other Nigeria have changed to community banks.  But for years after their operation, many of the community banks have not been issued a final license by the central bank of Nigeria.  Source of them still operating with provision license even when some have strong equity bases of between N5 millions and N10 millions as against the minimum take off equity of two hundred and fifty thousand naira (N250,000.00).

Perhaps a lot more is expected of the community banks especially in these days of Nigerians distressed economy. The National Board for Community Banks (NBCB), which was inaugurated on Tuesday, July 16 1991 to take control of all the community banks in the country.  Still has a lot of work to do if the community banking system must grow rapidly to save the development need of the grass root throughout the country.  The NBCB is grateful to government for the opportunity given to it to:

  1. Evolve a modern banking scheme adapted to the Nigeria indigenous culture.
  2. Devise a credit scheme that makes loan accessibility at the grass root a thing at joy.
  3. Awaka the innovativeness and creativeness of Nigeria producer who can now earn the elusive foreign exchange through embarking on productive venture.
  4. Provide a sound basis for grass roots development

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

YEAR QUARTER 1 QUARTER 2 QUARTER 3 QUARTER 4
19971998

1999

2000

2001

2002

 147206

266

260

308

354

 162234

261

268

325

348

 172248

248

276

341

360

 189259

249

290

338

345

ISOLATING THE TREND USING AVERAGE METHOD

 YEAR  QUARTER ACTUALDATA 4 QUARTERMOVING 3 QUARTER TREND  
1997 12

3

4

 147163

172

189

671

730

1401

1531

175.13

191.38

98.21

98.76
1998 12

3

4

 206234

248

259

 801877

947

1007

 16781824

1954

2044

 209.75228.0

224.25

255.5

 98.21102.63

101.54

101.37
1999 12

3

4

 266261

248

249

 10371034

1024

1018

 20712038

2042

2043

 258.88257.25

255.25

255.38

 102.75101.46

97.16

95.50
2000 12

3

4

 260268

276

290

 10251053

1093

1142

 20782146

2235

2341

 259.75368.25

279.38

292.63

 100.6999.91

98.79

99.10
2001 12

3

4

 308325

341

358

 11991264

1332

1378

 24632596

2710

2779

 307.58338.75

347.38

347.38

 100.04100.66

103.06

103.06
2002 12

3

4

 354348

360

345

 14011420

1407

 28212829 352.63353.63 100.3998.41

SEASONAL INDEX FOR EACH QUARTER

        Percentage for corresponding quarter over all the years is then average to give a representative index for each quarter.

YEAR QUARTER 1 QUARTER 2 QUARTER 3 QUARTER 4
19971998

1999

2000

2001

2002

 -988.21

102.75

100.09

100.04

100.39

 -102.63

101.46

99.91

100.15

98.41

 98.21101.54

97.16

98.79

100.66

 98.76101.37

95.50

99.10

103.06
TotalAVE 501.48100.30 502.56100.51 496.3699.27 497.7999.56 =
3.v(Adj) 100.39 100.60 99.36 99.65 =

To adjust the quarterly average in order to obtain the seasonal index.  The average 399.63, we use 400 divided adjusted seasonal variation.

FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF CUSTOMER THAT WILL BANK IN DEPOSIT ACCOUNT FOR QUARTERS OF 2003/2004

        This can be achieved by multiplying forecasted trend with seasonal index of each quarter ie.

Actual data = forecasted x seasonal index when multiplicative index is used.

The forecasted trend from least squares method got in regression analysis is used.

YEAR QUARTER PROJECTTREND SEASONALINDEX FORECASTED NO OF CUSTOMERS (ACTUAL DATA = TXS)/100
2004 12

3

4

 879388

397

405

 100.39100.60

99.36

99.65

 882390

394

404
2005 12

3

4

 414423

431

440

 100.39100.60

99.36

99.65

 416426

428

438

INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS

Regressive Analysis:       Using the techniques seen above, the regression lime Y = 160.54 + 8.74x was obtained which helps easily to extrapolate the future trend values.  The value 160.54 is the intercept of y and x axes while 8.74 are the slope.

To predict the trend for quarter of 2004 and 2005, just substitute 25, 26, 27 …… 32 into the equation y = 160.54 + 8.74X to get the project trend.

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS:       The graph of time series showing the number of customers who do bank in deposit accounts at the Obollo Community Bank (Nigeria) Limited Udenu, Enugu State as 1997 t o 2002 was constructed using the lime of best fit got from Regression Analysis, Y = 160.54 + 8.74X.  It was find out that the trend was find out that the trend was an up ward trend showing the rate of growth of performance of the bank which made the people to always coming to deposit with them.  it can also be seen that the rate of growth decline in 1999, may be because of socio-political climate in 1999 later rise in 2002.

When the trend was isolated with moving average method using multiplicative model, the cyclical and irregular movement of the series are eliminated leaving Actual data = Trend X Seasonal Variation.

Seasonal variation (expressed in %) = Actual data.

 

 

 

 

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